What just happened? Rahm and Dustin Johnson BOTH missed the cut? Can somebody wake me up from this dream? The beauty, or horror, of DFS Golf when a “sure” thing to make the cut is never so sure. It really shows that you need to clear your mind of recency bias in DFS as Dufner misses the cut at 35%+ the previous week and wins the following week with only 5% ownership. On to the Fedex St. Jude Classic in Memphis, Tennessee.
If you enjoyed last week’s deep field, we are back to a weaker field that will require us to dig deep for sleepers. The Fedex St. Jude Classic has been held at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee dating back to 1989. The course underwent renovations back in 2004 to strengthen the difficulty of the course. The course is a Par 70 playing a notch over 7200 yards with plenty of water to avoid. TPC Southwind also features plenty of doglegs that can minimize the edge from the bombers as they are forced to take the doglegs into consideration. The greens are on the smaller side and are played on bermuda grass. Also, with only 2 par 5’s on the course, Par 4 scoring will be very important. TPC Southwind features an island green similar to TPC Sawgrass so it will be “fun” as our players approach this hole. I’m not sure “fun” is the correct term when you have money on the line.
*We will monitor any WD’s from players as the week before The U.S. Open can lead player’s to hop on a plane to Erin Hills early.*
2016 Daniel Berger
2015 Fabian Gomez
2014 Ben Crane
2013 Harris English
2012 Dustin Johnson
2011 Harrison Frazar
Nothing to see here, move along. Weather looks absolutely PERFECT for golf.
SG: Tee to Green: This is the most consistent statistic each week that we utilize to target the best ball strikers. With the doglegs at TPC Southwind and smaller greens, we want the golfers that are able to strategically place their shots to give them the best angle for approach. The greens are also smaller so it is important that our players are dialed in from their tee shot to the green.
Par 4 Scoring: Both of the Par 5’s on course play under par so I don’t believe there is much advantage in targeting the Par 5 Scorers as most of the golfers should be able to post at least birdies here. However, the Par 4’s are where we can gain an edge on the top golfers in this category. These holes will be important to avoid any big numbers. Several other of the Par 4’s play over par so we want to target the guys playing par or better on these holes to gain strokes on the rest of the field.
Greens in Regulation %: The greens at TPC Southwind are on the smaller side and are quick. We want to target the players with the highest GIR%. This will help us find the players that are really dialed in with their approach shots. The more greens our players hit, the less we have to sweat.
SG: Approach: Yes, I get it, SG: Approach is already included in a previous statistic we are targeting. We will be strongly emphasizing the shots into the smaller greens. It will be important to stick the approach shot close to the pin to increase birdie chances. There are also plenty of hazards surrounding these greens. The less our players have to scramble the better.
Rickie Fowler ($12,000) – Never thought I would see the day that I pay $12,000 for Rickie Fowler. That is the kind of year this guy is having though. He is on fire and is going to keep grinding. Fowler will notch another victory this year and TPC Southwind could be the next one. Fowler ranks 6th in SG:T2G, 5th in SG: Approach, 23rd in GIR%, and 21st in Par 4 Scoring. I will be rostering plenty of Mr. Puma.
Francesco Molinari ($10,500) – Francescooooooooooooo. That never gets old. A player that we have been on all year with great success. He is another player in great form that we will have decent exposure to. The Italian Stallion comes in at 2nd in SG: Approach, 4th in SG: T2G, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, and 35th in GIR%.
Stewart Cink ($8,000) – Old man Cink has been good to us this year and is playing like his younger self. He is 3/3 in made cuts here so he knows the course well. Let’s see him backdoor that top-10 finish like he at the Dean & Deluca Invitational. Cink ranks 12th in SG:Approach and GIR%, 28th in SG:T2G, and 9th in Par 4 Scoring.
Phil Mickelson ($10,200) – With next weekend off to enjoy his daughter’s graduation and not worry about the deep fescue of Erin Hills, Phil will be motivated to finish strong before break. Too soon? Anyway, Phil has an unreal course history here and arrives at TPC Southwind with back to back top 30’s. Lefty ranks 30th in SG: T2G and 14th in SG: Approach. His GIR% isn’t pretty but he has been able to putt lights out at this tournament so he has a knack for these greens.
Also Consider: Adam Scott, Daniel Berger, Brooks Koepka, Kyle Stanley, Russell Henley
Lower Priced Plays:
Here is a list of the lower priced players (below $8,000) we like this week on Draftkings that will be worth rostering:
Peter Uihlein ($7,200) – The former Oklahoma State grad is no stranger to playing golf on American soil even though he spends a majority of his time on the Euro Tour dominating value. He grew up in New England and has trained in Florida so the “world traveler” gets another shot at his first victory on the PGA Tour. Uihlein also just qualifed for the US Open at Erin Hills on Monday shooting back to back 68’s after finishing T25 at the Memorial. Uihlein has hit 70.37% GIR this season which would be ranked in the top 20 and has solid total driving to attack the course this week.
J.T. Poston ($6,700) – Jimbo also played in the same section qualifier as Uihlein on Monday finishing first at -12, shooting 66’s both rounds. As with these other guys that just qualified for Erin Hills, we will have to monitor when they arrive to TN and how much practice they are able to get in. Poston is a birdie machine that can really play around the green. He doesn’t have the best GIR% but his scrambling can save him.
- Charl Schwartzl ($7,900)
- Ian Poulter ($7,600)
- Chad Campbell ($7,600) High Risk GPP Only Play
- Harold Varner III ($7,400) High Risk GPP Only Play
- D.A. Points ($6,500) Very High Risk GPP Only Play