What just happened? Rahm and Dustin Johnson BOTH missed the cut? Can somebody wake me up from this dream? The beauty, or horror, of DFS Golf when a “sure” thing to make the cut is never so sure. On to the Fedex St. Jude Classic in Memphis, Tennessee.
If you read our article last week, you made $. All of our picks made the cut and Fowler was so close to sealing the victory. A congrats to jasonwedge is in order for taking down last week’s listener league. This week’s listener league is live so be sure to enter to take us down. The link is included below:
If you enjoyed last week’s deep field, we are back to a weaker field that will require us to dig deep for sleepers. The Fedex St. Jude Classic has been held at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee dating back to 1989. The course underwent renovations back in 2004 to strengthen the difficulty of the course. The course is a Par 70 playing a notch over 7200 yards with plenty of water to avoid. TPC Southwind also features plenty of doglegs that can minimize the edge from the bombers as they are forced to take the doglegs into consideration. The greens are on the smaller side and are played on bermuda grass. Also, with only 2 par 5’s on the course, Par 4 scoring will be very important. TPC Southwind features an island green similar to TPC Sawgrass so it will be “fun” as our players approach this hole. I’m not sure “fun” is the correct term when you have money on the line.
*We will monitor any WD’s from players as the week before The U.S. Open can lead player’s to hop on a plane to Erin Hills early.*
2016 Daniel Berger
2015 Fabian Gomez
2014 Ben Crane
2013 Harris English
2012 Dustin Johnson
2011 Harrison Frazar
Nothing to see here, move along. Weather looks absolutely PERFECT for golf.
SG: Tee to Green: This is the most consistent statistic each week that we utilize to target the best ball strikers. With the doglegs at TPC Southwind and smaller greens, we want the golfers that are able to strategically place their shots to give them the best angle for approach. The greens are also smaller so it is important that our players are dialed in from their tee shot to the green.
Par 4 Scoring: Both of the Par 5’s on course play under par so I don’t believe there is much advantage in targeting the Par 5 Scorers as most of the golfers should be able to post at least birdies here. However, the Par 4’s are where we can gain an edge on the top golfers in this category. These holes will be important to avoid any big numbers. Several other of the Par 4’s play over par so we want to target the guys playing par or better on these holes to gain strokes on the rest of the field.
Greens in Regulation %: The greens at TPC Southwind are on the smaller side and are quick. We want to target the players with the highest GIR%. This will help us find the players that are really dialed in with their approach shots. The more greens our players hit, the less we have to sweat.
SG: Approach: Yes, I get it, SG: Approach is already included in a previous statistic we are targeting. We will be strongly emphasizing the shots into the smaller greens. It will be important to stick the approach shot close to the pin to increase birdie chances. There are also plenty of hazards surrounding these greens. The less our players have to scramble the better.
With the tight pricing on FantasyDraft and weak player pool, we are going very, VERY, balanced this week to give us the best chance of getting 6/7 players through the cut. We have been spoiled the last 2 weeks with strong fields and higher cut % as the recent tournaments had invitational status. With that in mind, here are the balanced plays we are targeting.
Stewart Cink ($14,100) – Old man Cink has been good to us this year and is playing like his younger self. He is 3/3 in made cuts here so he knows the course well. Let’s see him backdoor that top-10 finish like he did at the Dean & Deluca Invitational. Cink ranks 12th in SG:Approach and GIR%, 28th in SG:T2G, and 9th in Par 4 Scoring.
Peter Uihlein ($14,700) – The former Oklahoma State grad is no stranger to playing golf on American soil even though he spends a majority of his time on the Euro Tour. He grew up in New England and has trained in Florida so the “world traveler” gets another shot at his first victory on the PGA Tour. Uihlein also just qualifed for the US Open at Erin Hills on Monday shooting back to back 68’s after finishing T25 at the Memorial. Uihlein has hit 70.37% GIR this season which would be ranked in the top 20 and has solid total driving to attack the course this week. Uihlein also would be ranked 2nd in Par 4 Scoring if he played enough tournaments on the PGA Tour for his stats to register.
Kyle Stanley ($15,700) – Kyle Stanley feels like our poster child that we have been on all year with much success. Yes he is going to miss some cuts. However, you want to ride through the valleys so you can also be on him at the peaks. This is evident as he has 2 top 10’s and a MC in his last three tournaments. That right there really shows the volatility Stanley can bring. Stanley is atop our model ranking 2nd in GIR%, 5th in SG. T2G, 7th in SG:Approach, and 9th in Par 4 Scoring. Hard not to like Stanley with his price and form.
Ian Poulter ($15,100) – Sigh. I can’t believe I am writing up Ian Poulter. However, Poulter did not play in a U.S. Open Qualifier as he believes winning this week is his best chance at playing at the U.S. Open at Erin Hills next weekend. Besides this narrative and motivation, Poulter is playing solid golf lately and also finished 6th here last year. Poulter ranks 8th in SG:Approach, 18th in SG:T2G, and 46th in Par 4 Scoring.
Also Consider: Russell Henley, Charl Schwartzl, Daniel Berger, Ryan Palmer, Kevin Chappell, Danny Lee
Here is a list of GPP plays, or sleepers if you will, that could be lower owned and have some upside to them. You do not need much ownership on these players to be overweight the field.
- Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($14,400)
- J.T. Poston ($13,000)
- Harold Varner III ($13,900)
- Ben Martin ($13,300)
- Graeme McDowell ($14,500)
- Chad Campbell ($13,000)