Can we call that a walk-off bunker shot? What a way to finish off the Travelers Championship for Jordan Spieth. If you listened to our periscope you know that Spieth was my pick to win. And win he did. Our cash picks went off as well for another profitable week.
If you are a fan of course history, throw it out the window this week. Quicken Loans National is being held at a new course this year at the TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm. It is important to note that this is an invitational meaning the field is significantly reduced to 120 players as compared to the 156. With a higher percentage making the cut, 6/6 will be important to cash, unless the chalk busts. The course comes in a little over 7,100 yards playing as a Par 70. There were a couple Web.com tournaments back in 2012 and 2013 as well as the Booz Allen Classic back in 2006 but I wouldn’t put much weight on those events.
The course added Scottish-style bunkers and tall fescue grass in the 2008 renovation so you don’t want to miss the fairways and greens here by a large margin. The greens are bentgrass and the fairways were also narrowed in the redesign. We are going to want to target the premiere ball strikes to make sure we are avoiding any native areas.
2016 Billy Hurley III
2015 Troy Merritt
2014 Justin Rose
2013 Bill Haas
2012 Tiger Woods
2011 Nick Watney
Looks like we should have another uneventful week of golf as the wind will be marginal and the rain should hold off until Sunday night. This could all change in between now and Thursday so we will update with any changes. However, it looks like it’s going to be a HOT one.
SG: Tee to Green: This is the most consistent statistic each week that we utilize to target the best ball strikers. With the narrow fairways from the redesign and fescue grass added at TPC Potomac, we want the golfers that are going to hit the fairways to give themselves a nice approach shot. It is important that our players are dialed in from their tee shot to the green to avoid having to scramble too often.
Par 4 Scoring: With 12 Par 4’s on the course and only 2 Par 5’s, we want the players that can gain an edge on the Par 4’s. These holes will be important to avoid any big numbers. There are a few Par 4’s that play over 470 yards so we want those efficient Par 4 Scorers.
Greens in Regulation %: We want to target the players with the highest GIR%. This will help us find the players that are really dialed in with their approach shots. The more greens our players hit, the less we have to sweat.
Birdie or Better %: We want those birdie makers to pad the stats for our lineups rather than playing par golf. The more scoring the better. Billy Hurley projected the winning score to come in between 10 and 12 under par. We are going to need those birdies to reach that.
Cash Game Core
Brendan Steele ($8,900) – Is Steele in the field? If yes, put him in your cash lineup. Steele is riding a cut making streak that we will ride with much success until it busts. Steele is a solid cash game play week in and week out as all he does is make cuts. Steele ranks 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 17th in SG:T2G and BoB%, and 42nd in GIR%.
Marc Leishman ($9,800) – I know what you are thinking. What is Leishman doing priced this high. However, in a weak field he is a significant discount off the top 3 and a good price for a balanced cash lineup. Leishman ranks 21st in SG: T2G and Par 4 Scoring, 31st in BoB%, and 40th in GIR%.
Kyle Stanley ($7,600) – Oh no, let the fun begin. Rostering Stanley in cash is like asking for high blood pressure. A solid ball striker, Stanley should be able to do enough to make the cut for cash games. He has been playing solid golf lately making 6 of his last 7 cuts. Stanley ranks 2nd in GIR%,3rd in Good Drive %, 8th in SG:T2G, and 14th in Par 4 Scoring.
Tony Finau ($9,100) – Read above. Another risk for high blood pressure. However, in a weak field like this, you are forced to roster golfers in cash that you wouldn’t necessarily do in stronger fields. Finau is playing solid golf and TPC Potomac is played on bentgrass greens so that should help Finau a bit. Finau ranks 3rd in GIR%, 5th in SG:T2G, 10th in BoB%, and 14th in Par 4 Scoring.
Also Consider: Bill Haas, Adam Hadwin, Bud Cauley, Kevin Na
Grayson Murray ($6,800) – I am not a fan of Grayson off the course but since we are only worried about his life in the ropes lets get to it. Grayson has made his last 8 cuts and is coming into form. In his last 12 rounds, he ranks 14th in SG: T2G and 12th SG: OTT. After his hole in one last weekend, Murray ranks 1st in DK points for his last 12 rounds in the field.
Daniel Summerhays ($7,200) – Summerhays is ranked 15th in Good Driving % over his last 24 rounds, a stat I am leaning on for guys that keep it in the fairway off the tee or when they miss they save the GIR. In his last 5 tournaments he is gaining 2.4 strokes T2G and 1 stroke on approach. He has recently finished 10th at Memorial and made cuts at the US Open and Travelers.
Si Woo Kim ($7,500) – Si Woo already has a victory under his belt for the 2017 season and he is looking to add to it before he has to fulfill his Korean military service. He has played this course in the 2013 Mid Atlantic Championship and shot a tournament low 65 in the Web.com event. In his last 12 rounds he ranks 1st in the field for SG: T2G and SG: OTT. ***CAUTION As of Wednesday he is nearing the top in tags on FanShare***
Xander Schauffele ($8,400) – Xander gets a price increase this week on DK and it is going to suppress his ownership. We were on him at the US Open and he finished T5 and last week at the Travelers had a T14 finish. In his last 12 rounds he ranks 4th in SG: OTT and 3th in SG: T2G. Look for X to keep it going this week at a lower ownership because of his price.
David Lingmerth ($8,500) – Lingmerth won a Web.com event held at TPC Potomac in 2012. He is having a great season and coming into this event with making his last 5 of 6 cuts. He played well at the US Open finishing 21st. In his last 12 rounds Lingmerth ranks 2nd in the field in total strokes gained, and more specifically 10th in SG: T2G and 20th in SG: OTT. ***CAUTION As of Tuesday PM he is 2nd in tags for FanShare***
Also consider: Charles Howell III, Lucas Glover, Kevin Tway, Jim Herman, Jhonny Vegas