Recap of the Greenbrier
Well Xander finally did it and we could not be happier for “X man”. He had ice in his veins on the Par 3 18th to knock it right next to the pin for the birdie and seal the victory. This marks the 3rd week in a row we have picked the winner and we had a couple followers have some great success.
Mike (mrapol) took down the $30k PGA Driver on FanDuel and Miles (roguegremlin) had two lineups that were knocking on the door for the $225k Best Ball on DK. Both of their lineups centered around Xander and Finau, with some sprinkles of Chad Campbell, Dechambeau, Henley and Lovemark. Great job fellas, lets keep the success going!
The John Deere Classic
Now on to the John Deere classic this week, the field overall is not too exciting since majority of the players are jumping the pond early for the Open in two weekends. However, it is still DFS and we still have access to all of the PGA stats out there for the field.
The event is played at TPC Deere Run located in Silvis, IL, not far from John Deere Headquarters. Golfers that have grown up in the Midwest have had success at this course (i.e. Steve Stricker from the Cheesehead state and Iowa native Zach Johnson). Take a look at the previous winners below:
2009 – Steve Stricker
2010 – Steve Stricker
2011 – Steve Stricker (Yes Back to Back to Back)
2012 – Zach Johnson
2013 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – Brian Harman
2015- Jordan Spieth
2016 – Ryan Moore
You can start to notice a trend with the players that have won here, they are great putters on the green. TPC Deere Run is a Par 71 playing at 7,268 yards. This course features a rolling landscape with dramatic elevation changes on a number of holes. Fairways are wide and easy to hit, which really puts an emphasis on the second shot for the Par 4’s (11 on the course) and Par 5’s (3 on the course). So with this in mind, I am going to be weighting SG: T2G heavily as always, GIR% second for those birdie opportunities, SG: Around the Green and take a look at guys that putt well on Bent greens. This course will be seeing some low scores over the weekend that could approach 20 under par weather permitting.
So the weather forecast currently (Monday evening) is showing temps will be in the mid 70’s for a high throughout the week. Winds are forecasted to not play an impact on the tournament but we will continue to monitor throughout the week. Slight chance of rain also on Thursday morning.
SG: Tee to Green: This is the most consistent statistic each week that we utilize to target the best ball strikers. It is important that our players are dialed in from their tee shot to the green to avoid having to scramble and lose biridie opportunities.
Par 4 Scoring: With 11 Par 4’s on the course and only 3 Par 5’s, we want the players that can gain an edge on the Par 4’s. These holes will be important to avoid any big numbers. This will allow us to gain strokes on the field by playing the Par 4’s well.
Greens in Regulation %: We want to target the players with the highest GIR%. This will help us find the players that are comfortable with their approach shots. The more greens our players hit, the less we have to sweat.
Birdie or Better %: We want those birdie makers to pad the stats for our lineups rather than playing par golf. The more scoring the better on Draftkings.
Putting on Bent Greens: If you guys have not checked out FantasyNational yet, sign up now for Beta testing. You can filter and see which players putt well on Bent grass and choose your sample size (4 vs 8 rounds…). This is a very useful tool and something we have been using the past few weeks.
Cash Game Plays
Steve Stricker ($9,800) – Stricker gets a price hike due to his insane course history here with 3 wins in a row (2009-2011). Stricker is having a solid 2017 season with top 25 finishes at the US Open (in WI), Dean & Deluca, Masters and AT&T Pebble Beach. He ranks 16th SG: T2G his last 36 rounds on Bent grass and 4th in the field in total SG. Do not hesitate to lock Stricker in your cash lineups, his course history is for real.
Zach Johnson ($9,100) – ZJ grew up not far from this course in Cedar Rapids, IA and plays with a home course advantage here at TPC Deere Run. ZJ has a 1st place, two 2nd place, a T3 and T34 finish his last 5 years here. He ranks 32nd SG: T2G, 3rd in SG: Around the Green and 13th Putting his last 36 rounds on Bent grass. Look for him to add to the resume this week where he is comfortable on Bent grass.
Kyle Stanley ($9,600) – It feels weird going back to Stanley after a victory but then I ask myself who else are you going to take in this field? Stanley ranks 2nd SG: T2G, 12th OTT and 9th in Approach his last 36 rounds on Bent grass. Stanley has a spot secured in the Open next weekend but my gut tells me this guy still grinds it out this week regardless to fine tune.
Danny Lee ($9,200) – Danny Lee has been on fire since the Players posting 4 top 10’s since then. In his last 36 rounds he has everything tee to green. He ranks 12th in SG: T2G, 3rd in Approach and 4th Putting. Lee finished T3 here in 2015, I feel a victory for him this year coming very soon.
Bud Cauley ($8,500) – Bud comes into this event ranking #1 in the field for SG: T2G on bent grass his last 36 rounds. He is also ranked in the top 25 for SG: OTT, Approach and Around the Green his last 36 rounds. Bud has had 4 top 25 finishes in his last 7 starts and needs to finish top 4 to get his ticket to the Open. **Bud looks to be sick, see his IG post from Tuesday**
Others to consider: Charley Hoffman, Brian Harmon, Jamie Lovemark, Kevin Streelman, Ryan Palmer
Ben Martin ($8,300) – Martin has been very solid since the beginning of May. He finished 5th at Quicken Loans 2 weeks ago and a T35 finish last week at the Greenbrier. An interesting stat for Martin is his SG Putting on Bent grass ranks 3rd last 36 rounds.
Johnson Wagner ($7,500) – Wagner has had incredible success here at the JDC with 3 top 10 finishes in his 3 appearances. Wagner’s prior two events to the Greenbrier were very respectable with a T5 and T43 finish at Travelers. He has a very solid Tee to Green game and likes the course.
Alex Cejka ($6,700) – I have dabbled with success in taking Cejka throughout this year and last weekend was his best start of the year finishing T9. Cejka has had two appearances at the JDC making the cut in both. He ranks 6th in the field for SG: T2G, 5th in Approach and 21st in Around the Green his last 36 rounds on Bent.
David Lawrence ($6,700) *LONG SHOT* – Who likes a good narrative because we have one here. My buddy lived with David in Orlando, FL and sent me a message saying he got the sponsor invite on Monday to the JDC. He grew up on the TPC Deere Run and has thrived off courses around Iowa and Illinois. He has 20 professional wins and knows this course, so wouldn’t that just be fitting for him to pull it off this week. Just remember it is a VERY long shot. Vid below of him playing TPC Deere Run:
Others to consider: Robert Garrigus, Nick Taylor, Nick Watney, Shawn Stefani