NFL Week 2 Player Targets

QUARTERBACKS

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Aaron Rodgers ($7400) – Lets take a look back at the previous three game totals between ATL & GB: 44 to 21 (16′ Playoffs), 33 to 32 (16′ Reg Season), 37 to 43 (15′ Reg Season). This game is going to shoot out and I want pieces from both sides. This starts with Rodgers and his juicy matchup with a forgiving ATL secondary that also gives up passing yards from the backfield (TyMont is a great stack with Rodgers). Rodgers passed for 246 and 287 yards in 2 games against the Falcons last season, with 7 passing TDs. I think this is a week to pay up for QB, and Rodgers may get lower ownership than the other high priced options since he is on the road.

Matt Ryan ($7500) – The Falcons offense was lacking in the season opener against the Bears but I do not expect that to happen again this week. I just mentioned Rodgers above in this matchup and I like the Falcons passing attack just as much. In Matt Ryan’s two games played against the Packers last season he posted 392 yards with 4 TDs and 288 yards with 3 TDs. I will also point out that Julio feasted in that playoff game last year with 180 yards & 2 TDs and I really like stacking him with Ryan and using TyMont + Jordy/Cobb/Bennett coming back to differentiate. Do not get cute with QBs this week unless you are trying to give yourself a chance at winning the top prize of a million bucks.

Also consider: Drew Brees, Tom Brady

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Carson Palmer ($6,000) – Yes, Carson Palmer’s stat line against the woeful Lion’s Defense does not look good.  When you rewatch the game, a different story is painted.  Palmer had a perfectly placed ball to Gresham dropped in the endzone along with a Fitzgerald touchdown drop that would’ve made his stats look much different.  Palmer gets an even better matchup on paper as the Davis-less Colts secondary got shredded by Goff.  With what Kupp did to the Colts in the slot, a Palmer-Fitzgerald stack is the recipe for gold.  I will be going right back to the well with Palmer as people will overreact to week 1 stats. **Update John Brown is not playing this weekend – bumping Palmer down slightly with his absence but still love Fitzgerald and JJ Nelson stacks**

Also Consider: Jameis Winston, Russell Wilson

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Alex Smith ($5,700) – The Chiefs stomped right into Gillette Stadium and torched the Patriots.  The Eagles lost Darby and we finally saw Smith take some shots downfield.  With the explosiveness of Hill and Hunt, these players can take a few checkdown passes to the yard.  The Eagles are stout up front so if the Chiefs want to take it to the Eagles they will have to be successful through the air.  I don’t mind going right back to the well with Smith this week after he surprised many many fans last week.  Smith can easily hit value and has shown with his explosive targets he can reach GPP winning levels.

Late Week Additions: Jared Goff

Running Backs

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Le’Veon Bell ($9,800) – I am going right back to the well with Bell (no intentions of rhyming).  Yes, he had his worst week ever for fantasy purposes.  Yes, the Vikings D is stout.  However, here are some reasons to play bell.  The general public will see last week’s performance and shy away at that price of $9,800.  The Vikings strength on D is shutting down the passing game and attacking the QB.  The Vikings should be able to put pressure on Ben which will increase the checkdowns Bell will see.  Playing at home, I expect Ben and Bell to connect more efficiently.  If the Vikings can shut down the Steelers passing game, Bell will get all the run.

Ezekiel Elliott ($7,800) – The fact that Elliott is included more in the passing game this year only boosts his floor that much higher.  He should be priced up $1,000 higher in my books. Elliott wasn’t able to break off any runs longer than 10 yards against the Giants front 7.  However, he was able to consistently gain yards.  A 100+ yards and a couple scores is not out of the question this week. Denver’s rushing defense is their weakness and I expect the Cowboys to exploit it.  At this price point I will have heavy exposure to Elliott in GPP and Cash games.

Also Consider: Melvin Gordon (Cash + GPP), Lesean McCoy

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Kareem Hunt ($6,800) – I don’t think much needs to be said here.  Before last week we highlighted the success of RB1’s with Andy Reid at the helm.  The volume and explosiveness is there for Hunt to be a consistent bell cow.  The fact that he received all but one touch in the first game shows the confidence the Chiefs have in Hunt.  Playing at home at Arrowhead could lead to a very favorable game script for Hunt as the Chiefs are currently a 4.5 point favorite.

Ty Montgomery ($5,800) – A converted WR to Bell Cow?  You don’t hear that often.  His 2.8 YPC vs Seattle wasn’t the greatest.  However, it was Seattle he was facing.  Atlanta got torched by Cohen out of the backfield last week and could be exploited again this week by Montgomery.  With his usage in the passing game, Montgomery has a built in floor which is nice for cash games. Montgomery should be able to improve on is YPC against a softer matchup against the Falcons.

Also Consider: Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Jacquizz Rodgers ($4,400) – This must be an absolute misprice as Rodgers is priced the same as Doug Martin, who isn’t eligible until week 5.  Rodgers will open up the year as the lead back which was evident in the preseason.  Playing at home as a 7 point favorite certainly helps Rodgers from a game theory aspect.  Rodgers can also catch balls out of the backfield which definitely helps in PPR formats.  At this price I will be playing Rodgers in both Cash and GPPs.

Tarik Cohen ($4,100) – This game script could line up perfectly for Cohen as discussed with Rodgers.  While TB could hop out to an early lead and run the clock out, the Bears may have to speed things up.  With White going down with an injury, again, the Bears are losing quality (for lack of a better term) receivers.  Cohen had 8 catches on 12 targets last week.  I expect Cohen to be highly utilized in the passing game which only boosts his floor on a PPR site like Draftkings.

Late Week Additions:  

Wide Receivers

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Julio Jones (9200)- Julio did not reach value week 1 against the Bears, and I love his situation this week against the Packers. ATL vs GB has a 53.5 point total and I think there will be ample opportunities for Julio. The Packers gave up the most PPR points to WR last season, and their secondary is not fit to contain JJ. I am tempted to lock in Julio this week for my lineups. Yes I love the spot that much.

Brandin Cooks ($8200) – Who wants to join me in a walk down narrative street? Cooks makes his first trip back to New Orleans since parting ways with the Saints, a situation that got hostile at times last season. If Amendola cannot play due to a concussion suffered last week, this is going to really force feed targets to Cooks. The NO vs NE games has a 55.5 point total and will be popular for DFS. Just make sure to differentiate your lineups elsewhere.

Michael Thomas ($7500) – I am looking to game stack NO vs NE and Thomas will be a staple in those builds. I love Brees at home and think the Saints bounce back after a disappointing showing against the Vikings. The Saints run game looked awful, so I think they stick to their strengths which is passing through the air and relying on Thomas to march them down the field. Thomas had 8 targets against the Vikes, look for the double digit targets this week in a shootout. I am also trying to get my Thomas exposure early in the year while Snead is suspended. My only concern is Bellichek trying to take out MT from the game, if you are worried about scenario keep reading to TE below.

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Randall Cobb ($5900) – We were on Cobb week 1 and lets go right back to him after a great showing in Week 1. The Falcons give up yards to WR in their secondary and Cobb has always been a favorite target to Rodgers. In the playoffs last year, Cobb saw 9 targets that resulted in 6 catches for 82 yards.

Keenan Allen ($5800) – Well here is our mispricing of the week on DraftKings. Keenan had 10 targets against a stout Broncos secondary and snagged a TD. He gets a great matchup against Bobby McCain in the slot who has started only 12 games his last 2 seasons.

Chris Hogan ($5600)  – Hogan let alot of people down week 1 but he saw 73 snaps vs the Chiefs, I cannot ignore this volume that is going to come eventually. The Patriots overall did not look good and I mentioned Cooks above as a play I like this week. If Amendola is out vs the Saints I think Hogan can get some additional snaps out of the slot. Keep an eye on the situation as the week goes on.

Also consider: LARRY FITZGERALD, Stefan Diggs,  Alshon Jeffrey

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Adam Thielen ($5000) – Before the season started and we heard news Thielen would be coming out of the slot this year, I was salivating over the news. Thielen has been the most productive WR the last 4 weeks of the regular season. Diggs will get some ownership this week after his 2 TD’s but Thielen had more targets & catches, and comes at a discount. **Removing majority of my Thielen lineups with Bradford Injury news, although I will keep a few shares in large GPP’s in the case he is OK and able to get Thielen the rock**

Desean Jackson ($4900) – The Bears secondary was able to keep Julio in check last week and I think they try to do the same with Mike Evans this week. This will open some opportunities for DJax and Brate in particular. The Bears deploy a cover 6 more than any defense in the NFL to try and bracket these top WR, but DJax will still have the upside to break for the big gains. This is a GPP play for me.

Allen Hurns ($3900) – I did not like this Jaguar situation going into the year but now with ARob out for the year we have to take a look. Last season Hurns had 11 targets that resulted in 7 catches for 98 yards and a TD against the Titans. The pure volume that will result from ARob’s absence is enough for me to take some shares. You can also take a look at Marqise Lee who has more TD equity for FanDuel’s format.

Others to consider: Ted Ginn, Cooper Kupp (GPP)

Late Week Additions: Tyreek Hill, JJ NELSON

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski ($6,900) – I think a lot of people will be reluctant to pay up at TE this week with the value to be discussed in the players below.  However, Gronkowski had over 100 air yards last week including a near touchdown grab.  With Amendola possibly out with a concussion, this only adds targets up the middle.  Berry was able to control Gronwkowski but I don’t see anyone on the Saints being able to stop him.  A solid way to differentiate yourself in lineups is to pay up for Gronkowski at TE.  This is a GPP play only.

Kyle Rudolph ($4,200) – I wish Rudolph wouldn’t have scored that touchdown last week as his 3 targets were uninspiring and would’ve kept more people off of him.  This was because Thielen and Diggs were able to cruise through the Saints secondary. Rudolph should see an uptick in targets as he is Bradford’s most trusted target. Going up against Williams (49/73) and Shazier (41/73) should allow Rudolph to see plenty of targets and catches.

Coby Fleener ($3,000) – Fleener is an excellent way to get a piece of the Saints passing offense in a game that has shootout potential.  Fleener had 5 catches on 6 targets last week for a touchdown and I could see similar output this week which would easily exceed value.  Take advantage of utilizing Fleener while Snead is suspended as it will increase targets Fleener’s way up the middle.

Cameron Brate ($3,000) – This is probably my favorite play of the week at tight end.  I hope the general public stays off Brate as the Bucs were forced to move their week 1 matchup due to Hurricane Irma.  Chicago has a stout line which could force Jameis to throw quick.  Chicago was ranked 28th in DVOA to TE last year (it is too early to rely on 2017 DVOA numbers).  TB added several weapons this year which may limit his targets yet decrease his attention from defenders.  I want to be on Brate before the rest of the public jumps on.

Also consider:  Charles Clay, Zach Ertz

Late Week Additions: ZACH MILLER

Defense

Cardinals ($4,100) – Similar to last week, there could be several defenses that are necessary to even cash.  The Cardinals are one of them.  The Donald-less Rams were able to just take it to the Colts offense.  What’s even worse this week for the Colts is that we have Brisset and Tolzien splitting first team reps in practice.  This is no way to build confidence in a QB for the game.  I will be targeting the Colt’s opponents in Defense as long as Luck is out.

Seahawks ($4,000) – If you can’t tell yet, I will be paying up for the Defenses in great spots this week.  The Legion of Boom is fully healthy and ready to light up an offense not led by Rodgers.  I wouldn’t look much into last week’s loss for Seattle as they haven’t played well at Lambeau the last few years. They still managed to put up 7 points against GB. Being back at CenturyLink Field with a healthy Legion of Boom against a mediocre at best QB, Seattle’s D could put up some points.

Raiders ($3,500) – Woof, what a matchup this is.  There are several terrible offenses which can lead to higher ownership on a few defenses than we would have seen in prior years.  These offenses are so bad that the opposing defenses are in such great spots that it is easy to limit the player pool.  Traveling cross country with McCown at the helm and Kearse as the WR1, the Raiders are going to feast.  Mack didn’t record a sack last week against TEN and I fully expect that to change this week.

Ravens ($3,700) – Our last defense target of the week is the Ravens.  Kizer will have some growing pains in his rookie season and we want to take advantage of those in difficult matchups.  The Ravens completely destroyed Cincinatti on the road and allowed 221 total yards.  Yes, that is not a typo, 221 TOTAL yards. Kizer better be careful or this could be a similar feat for the Browns.

Also Consider: Buccaneers, Chargers


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