NFL Week 3 Player Targets

QUARTERBACKS

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Although there are some great plays in this price range, there are some cheaper Quarterbacks in much better matchups.  I would rather take the savings and pay down at QB this week.  However, if I was paying up I am targeting Aaron Rodgers. The Bengals give up yards through the middle of the field, and with Cobb out, this forces Jordy to the slot. Jordy could have a big day out of the slot and be relatively low owned with his injury tag on him majority of the week (and burning alot of people last week). I also like stacking Rodgers, TyMont and Jordy with bringing AJ Green back.

Also consider: Matt Ryan

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Derek Carr ($6800) – Carr is coming off a big game against the lowly Jets. He had Crabtree in his cross hairs when in the Red Zone connecting for 3 TDs. This game against the Redskins has a vegas line of 54 points. The Raiders are facing a suspect Redskins D that has not had to face a QB caliber to that of Carr. The ‘Skins gave up over 300 passing yards to Wentz week 1 and Goff threw for 224 yards and a TD last week.

Matt Stafford ($6,200) – The Lion’s completely got away from the passing game on Monday after half as they wanted to run the clock out.  They had confidence that their defense would be able to stop the Giant’s offense.  I think the game script reverses this week and we see an output similar to Week 1 where Stafford should see mid-30 pass attempts.  With a current vegas total of 49 points and playing as underdogs, the Lions should see plenty of passing attempts.  I like the Stafford we have seen through 2 weeks and will take the savings from paying up to the top tier quarterbacks this week.

Also Consider: Kirk Cousins, Ben Roethlisberger

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Trevor Siemian ($5500) – Siemian is having a great start to the season, throwing for 450 yards and 6 TDs in 2 games. Siemian has seen protection on his offensive line giving him time to find his receivers.  At this price point, Siemian is a solid value play for your lineups.

Jacoby Brissett ($4800) – *WARNING DEEP GPP PLAY* I am putting this play out here if you want to get crazy in a large field GPP with a top heavy payout. Brissett had a big week 4 of preseason and should be able to get the ball downfield against the Browns. I like stacking Brissett with Doyle, but remember this is a long shot GPP flyer that allows you to get some other studs in your roster.

Late Week Additions: Aaron Rodgers

Running Backs

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Kareem Hunt ($8,000) – People will shy away because of his elevated price.  Although Hunt only had 17 touches last week, he has the explosive power to break away a run on any given play.  DK has the OPRK at 4 which will also deter people from paying up for Hunt.  When you did into the LAC defense, they have been torched on the ground by CJ Anderson and Ajayi.  Hunt is a pure GPP only play this week.

Jay Ajayi ($7700) – The Dolphins played the first game of the season and Ajayi was the workhorse for them. He carried the ball for 28 times and rushed for 122 yards and added 2 catches for 4 yards. Ajayi gets a very favorable matchup against the Jets (ranked 27th in Rush DVOA through 2 weeks), who have given up 185 rushing yards per game (most in NFL), I predict the Dolphins to get an early lead and just continue feeding him the ball throughout the game. Ajayi is a strong Cash + GPP play.

Also Consider: Leveon Bell (GPP)

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Ty Montgomery ($6900) – This is another week where we get TyMont as a free square. His volume is unmatched with anyone in this price range and he gets the ideal match up against a Bengals defense that has given up 325 rushing yards through 2 weeks. TyMont has seen an absurd 139 snaps and has such a high floor with his receiving abilities. He is game script proof with his rushing and receiving ability. We will have to monitor the Jordy and Cobb injury news as the week goes on, but regardless I think TyMont sees healthy volume once again.

CJ Anderson ($5800) – After 2 games CJA has shown he is the featured back for the Broncos. CJA has seen 104 of 144 snaps (72%) after 2 games and this Broncos offense looks to have some fire power.  BUF ranks 14th in Rush DVOA through the first 2 games but they haven’t really faced a strong rushing attack (NYJ, CAR).  I expect the game flow to be in CJ Anderson’s favor as he will be relied upon to move the chains.  Anderson has been fairly involved in the passing attack as well has he averages 3 targets per game which increases his floor in PPR sites.  I like CJ Anderson as a Cash and GPP play this week at this price.

Also Consider: Christian McCaffrey

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

James White ($5,400) – This is a pure GPP only play as I don’t see many safe floors for cash games in this price range.  Throw in Belichick’s style of play, no running back in his scheme is “safe”.  However, White has resumed his role as the primary receiving back for the Patriots as evidenced by his 11 catches on 13 targets through 2 weeks.  If White can take one of these targets to the house he will easily crush value.

Derick Henry ($5300) – This is something we need to monitor with Murray, but if Murray’s hamstring looks to be a concern going into the game I am taking advantage of the late news. Henry is averaging almost 6 yards per carry and that is with 8 guys stacked in the box 55% of the time with his 3rd down and goal line carries (only 3 RB having a higher stacked box %). Mariota & Henry developed good chemistry in the preseason pass catching out of the backfield. This becomes an elite play if we get news Murray isn’t able to go, but still reserving him for GPPs going up against SEA.

Also Consider: Theo Riddick, Alvin Kamara, Isaiah Crowell

Late Week Additions:  Lamar Miller (DEEP GPP), Samaje Perine (DEEP GPP), Tarik Cohen (GPP)

Wide Receivers

The High-End Model ($7000+)

AJ Green ($8100) – This is the perfect storm for AJ Green this week: a new OC that should force feed him the ball until his hands fall off, he is going up against a suspect Packers secondary, and Eiffert is listed on the injury report. This all leads to one thing > VOLUME with upside. Game script should be in his favor with Bengals as 8.5 point underdogs. Lock him in your lineups, especially at his price on Fanduel.

Michael Crabtree ($7,400) / Amari Cooper ($7,100) – As discussed on the podcast, the Raiders passing game against the Redskins secondary is one to attack this week. I expect Crabtree to be more heavily owned by the box score watchers out there with his 3 touchdown game last week.  The key will be to zoning in on the Redskins game plan throughout the week and if Norman is expected to shadow one of these players.  If Norman locks in on Crabtree, I will be all over Cooper.  Similar to last week, this game is a Sunday night hammer that you want plenty of exposure too.  Just don’t check your winnings until late Sunday as it likely won’t look pretty until you start climbing the leaderboard with the Carr stacks.

Also consider: Mike Evans, Keenan Allen

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Golden Tate ($6900) – I really like the spot the Lions are in against the Falcons. Tate gets a juicy matchup with the Falcons interior defense, while Marvin Jones will get Trufant lining up outside. Tate will get matched up with Poole, who ranks highly on PFF but he is giving up the 4th most targets to slot WR. On DK format, Tate will get volume and targets in this spot. He does not have a Red Zone target yet this year, but they will come in bunches with Stafford.

Kelvin Benjamin ($6700) – With the injury news to Olsen, I think we see a noticeable uptick in targets for Benjamin against the Saints. The Saints secondary is the WORST in football. They have given up a whopping 777 yards through the air in 2 games. IN TWO GAMES. You will see more in our article later in the week but I also want to have some exposure to Sheppard in the slot here. Hogan & Thielen roasted the Saints out of the slot the last 2 weeks.

Devonte Parker ($6300) – Last week Parker had shadow coverage from Casey Hayward but still caught 4 balls for a team high 85 yards. Jarvis had 13 receptions but that was due to the shadow coverage on Parker, opening up targets for him. I think this week Cutler goes back to his tendencies in targeting big body WR like he had in CHI with Alshon and BMarsh.

Emmanuel Sanders / Demaryius Thomas ($5800) – Sanders is leading the NFL in red zone targets with 5, this is something I love targeting in my WRs. Sanders is still priced down this week and I pointed out above I like the matchup the Broncos have through the air. At the same time, you can say Thomas is on the wrong side of TD variance with Sanders & Fowler taking in the TDs so far…

Also consider:  Chris Hogan (if healthy), Randall Cobb (if healthy), Davante Adams (if Nelson is out)

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Devin Funchess ($4200) – I wrote up Benjamin above but I want some pieces of the Panthers WR here with Greg Olsen out and a favorable matchup against the Saints. The Panthers coaches today said they were going to get Funchess more involved with the absence of Olsen since they can move him around the field. At $4200 he is worth a shot in GPPs.

Rashard Higgins ($4000) – With Corey Coleman going down last week Higgins took advantage posting 7 catches for 95 yards. Higgins was a stud in college at CSU and has the ability to be a WR1 in Cleveland, especially with the dissapointment so far in FA signing Kenny Britt.  With this price tag seeing possible double digit targets with Coleman going down, Higgins can easily hit value at 4,000.  Throw in a beatable Colt’s secondary, this could be the recipe for gold.

DeSean Jackson ($4600) – We saw what Martavis Bryant was able to do to Trae Waynes last week.  With Rhodes likely to shadow Evans for most of the game, Jackson should see plenty of openings to exploit Waynes.  Waynes has been known to take interference calls than to allow the splash plays so hopefully Jackson can get enough separation where this tilt does not happen.  This is a GPP play only as we can not guarantee the targets and receptions and are banking on a few long TD plays.

Others to consider: Mohamed Sanu, Jermaine Kearse, Russell Sheppard (Deep GPP)

Late Week Additions:  JORDY NELSON, Michael Thomas (GPP ONLY),  TY Hilton (DEEP GPP), Deandre Hopkins (GPP),  Terrelle Pryor (GPP), Alshon Jeffery

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz ($5000) – Ertz has the 2nd most targets this year of any TE with 16. Since the departure of JMatt, he has been Wentz’s favorite target these first 2 weeks. Ertz has had some big games against the NYG in the last two years: with a 9 reception for 152 yard performance in 2015, and an 8 reception 97 yard game last season.

Jack Doyle ($3600) – Played 116 snaps in 2 games and has ran the 5th most routes at TE in the NFL. He charted 8 targets for 79 yards against the Cardinals. He gets a match up against the Browns who gave up 2 TDs to Jesse James in week 1 and 8 catches for 91 yards to Benjamin Watson last week. He looked to be Brissett’s safety blanket throughout the game against the Cardinals.  This is my favorite tight end play of the week.

Travis Kelce ($6,000) – Kelce gets a beautiful matchup against the LAC ranking 30th in DVOA to TE through 2 weeks given the small sample size.  A primary reason for this is that the Chargers have stud corners and secondary.  With the outside WR being locked down, Kelce should get plenty of passes funneled his direction.  Kelce had a monster game last week and could definitely repeat again this week.

Also consider: Eric Ebron

Late Week Additions: Jared Cook, Martellus Bennett, Jordan Reed (if healthy)

Defense

Instead of listing out the top 6 defenses each week that will be included in our player pool, we will highlight our favorite defense.

Philadelphia Eagles ($3,000) – Playing at home against the New York Giants offense is a gift.  The Eagles have absolutely dominated the Giants fantasy-wise at home in the last 4 years with a defensive touchdown in 3 of those 4 games and a shutout in another.  The Lions and Cowboys have made the Giants offense look like the other franchise playing at MetLife.  This is a nice price savings off of the highest price defenses and have an opportunity to put up some points.

Other Defenses in great spots to consider: Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,400), New England Patriots (3,800), Denver Broncos (3,600), Miami Dolphins ($3,700)


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