Week 4 Game by Game Breakdown

Week 4 2017

Warren Sharp created some really cool tools and you don’t even need to pay him anything for playing around with them! Now that we are starting to get a sample size we can work with and be at least somewhat confident in, I’m going to take a couple of screenshots to share with everyone. Here are the paces for all teams and their overall run:pass ratios:

And here are the paces and run:pass ratios in one score games:

I feel like there are a couple of great things we can take away from this:

  • Namely, the NYG, DET, GB, TB, and ARI all love to chuck it around
  • PHI, BUF, SEA, and DEN/ARI all love to play at a quick pace

How does that help us this week? For example, BUF will square off against ATL, so this will be a game between the 2nd-fastest and 8th-fastest teams. We also know that NYG @ TB should be fairly slow (28th versus 32nd). In fantasy, we generally want to target fast-paced games because they will get more plays off, which should result in more points for us. I’m not saying to totally ignore slower paced games, but we generally don’t want to game stack in them.

Side rant of the week, feel free to skip over. I love Draftkings, but I’m also pretty pissed at them. In case you haven’t heard, they have removed the Sunday night game from the main slate, and they have also raised the rake. Again. It seems pretty underhanded to me, because they haven’t really had any kind of open forum about this and their justification for removing the SNF game was, “to keep their product ‘fun.’” Obviously, they refuse to provide feedback on why the rake has to be larger. As Dan pointed out, it also feels like they tried to mask these updates with their stupid pizza challenge. Unless they get their house in order quickly, I feel like this could be the beginning of the end. Everyone on RotoGrinders has already agreed to boycott this slate in protest of the SNF game not being on there, but the rake getting raised is the larger problem in my opinion. DK is spending their money on utterly worthless shit – like this program they put together called ‘The Assist.’ I made it 2 minutes into this gem before I couldn’t deal with it anymore. If you are paying someone to do a video like this, make sure that they actually add value (or that, you know, it might actually be related to your product somehow). The only thing you assisted me with was losing brain cells.

CHI (18.5) @ GB (25.5)

The Bears somehow just beat the Steelers in OT this past week. Howard had an exceptionally strong outing as he put up 138 yards and 2 TDs on 23 carries against a strong PIT run defense (one of these TDs was setup by a long run from Cohen, who nearly scored it instead). The Bears were up by 10 at the half, and are clearly trying to limit how much Glennon throws as he managed a meager 101 yards on 15 completions. Surprisingly, Howard was the most-targeted player here with 5 targets and catches, and I do not expect this to continue. I assume that GB will be leading this next game, so I expect the pendulum to swing back towards Cohen in this one. I still don’t like rostering him at $5400, but no one else will either since Howard is $400 cheaper, which does make this play especially appealing in GPPs. We should keep an eye on whether GB’s top run defenders can return this week – Nick Perry and Mike Daniels – as they all could not go last week and this obviously will also greatly hinder Howard. Both of them have returned to practice and I assume that both will go, but if Perry can play, it will be with a club on his hand.

Assuming that CHI is trailing, that should force Glennon to throw, but outside of Cohen, I’m not sure who he will target. Packers’ CB King has looked pretty good for the most part this year outside of when Green took him to school this past week, but Thompson is not Green, so I don’t really want to go there. Neither Wheaton nor Wright saw any targets last week, but again, that seems to be mainly because the Bears will severely limit Glennon whenever they have the lead. Both have fairly good matchups against Randall and Rollins though, so one of them will probably see the volume that we would want to target on a small slate. If you put a gun to my head, I would probably choose Wright because his routes are more conducive to Glennon’s abilities, he has more rapport with Glennon (i.e. since Wheaton missed the first couple of games), and we have already discussed his comfort level in this system.

I was definitely wrong about the Packers running Jordy out of the slot last week as he played on the outside for 40 routes and in the slot only for 15 (while on the outside, he slightly favored the right side, but it was nearly an exact split). Instead, it was Allison who ran mostly from the slot with 31 routes coming from there. Both of them had excellent games with Allison going for 6-122-0 and Jordy putting up 6-52-2. Cobb got upgraded to ‘full’ on Tuesday, so he should be good to go, and this will obviously help open things up on the outside. Even with this new designation, however, I’m not sure if he is fully healthy, and he has definitely struggled before when not 100%. I also need to stop talking about the Bears’ Cover 6 defense, as it has now failed to stop either Evans or AB in back-to-back weeks. In Week 2, Evans ran most of his routes on the outside as per normal, and he didn’t really favor one side over the other. AB did the exact same thing last week with most of his routes coming on the outside while splitting time between both left and right. Thus, this puts both Nelson and Adams as my preferred targets here. Since you have to be massively contrarian in small slates to have a legit shot at taking the GPP down solo, I would take Adams here since he still has a good match-up and most people will go with Jordy after his two TDs last week.

TyMont was an overall disappoint last week and could only muster 35 rushing yards, but he saw a ridiculous 12 targets that he turned into 8-15-0. This clearly gives him a very safe floor in any match-up, but his usage is starting to get concerning at his price. He now has back-to-back weeks with 12 or fewer rush attempts and, like I mentioned in last week’s write-up, there have been rumblings from GB that suggest they are trying to monitor his touches closely. The Bears run defense has also been surprisingly stout so far as they limited Bell to 61 yards last week, and Quizz Rodgers put up only 67 on them the week before. With all of this being said, however, the game script should massively favor TyMont’s here and the Bears have given up a rushing TD in every game so far.  Furthermore, people might be a little gun-shy in rostering him because of his disappointing day last week and the tight pricing on the Mon-Thurs slate (I think that he will be relatively highly owned on the Thurs-Mon slate though). Also of note, the Bears just lost their starting FS, Quintin Demps, with a broken arm, and he has graded out fairly well against the run so far. Personally, I will not roster TyMont at this price outside of small slates.

NO (26.25) @ MIA (23.25)

There is a lot of money on the under here, as there have only been 31% of the bets placed that way, but the line has dropped by 0.5.

Adam Gase is pretty pissed at his offense which he called “garbage,” and I don’t blame him for being pissed after losing to the Jets. This could be the get right spot that they need, however, as the Saints grade out worse than the Jets in both ground and pass defense surprisingly (25th and 27th in DVOA to 23rd and 25th respectively). Stills, Parker, and Landry all saw double-digit targets last week, but this was mainly from the poor game script that they found themselves in. Parker came through with an 8-76-1 line, and I’m definitely grateful for this since I rostered him quite a bit. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, Lattimore should be back this week (keep an eye on this just in case he isn’t), and he has looked pretty good so far. Parker should run the most against him, but we have seen Parker beat Hayward earlier in the year and Hayward is clearly better than Lattimore, so I’m not too concerned about the match-up. I’m not sure how the rest of the secondary gets shuffled around if Lattimore does return, but I sorely hope that Vaccaro continues to work as the slot CB. While he hasn’t played enough snaps to officially rank yet, if he did, he would currently grade out as the worst CB in the entire NFL. While Landry has also graded out pretty poorly, I’m absolutely fine with taking my chances with him here. As I mentioned last week, the Saints have been absolutely destroyed out of the slot so far this year with Hogan and Thielen putting up 5-78-1 and 9-157-0 against them in the first two weeks. In fact, outside of last week against the poor Panthers, the Saints have given up multiple receiving TDs in each of the other two games.

Jay Ajayi is not practicing as of Wednesday, and I assume that this will be standard for him throughout the year as he tries to manage his knee (his knee issue is known from college and is why his draft stock fell to round 5 originally). As I alluded to earlier, the Saints have been ugly against the ground game as they have given up a minimum of 17.6 DK points to each opponent’s lead rusher so far this year, and they are getting gashed on both the ground and through the air (they rank 24th in DVOA against receiving backs):

Week Rushes Rush Yards Rush TDs Recs Rec

Yards

Rec TDs DK Points
Christian McCaffrey 3 4 16 0 9 101 0 23.7
James White 2 2 11 0 8 85 0 17.6
Dalvin Cook 1 22 127 0 3 10 0 19.7

 

I assume that a lot of people still have a sour taste in their mouths after last week – I definitely do – but I’m not afraid to go back to Ajayi here. Even with his knee issue, they are still leaning heavily on him and he saw the same number of targets as the other ’phins RBs did combined. His lowly 1.5 ypc is definitely concerning, but he has another great match-up here and you can probably have him at lower ownership than normal.

While we still have a fairly small sample size for the Dolphins, they currently rank dead last in DVOA against the pass and 2nd against the run. They have also given up either 100 yards or a TD to the opponents leading receiver in each of their games so far. I know which way I would attack them… Diving into this further though, both outside CBs rank 92nd or lower out of 109 per PFF. Thomas put up 7-87-1 against much stiffer competition last week and is seeing a minimum of 8 targets per game so far. Willie Snead will return this week, but Payton has been noncommittal about his role moving forward. Coleman/Snead will have the toughest match-up in the slot against Bobby McCain, so between that and the uncertainty around them, I’m going to look elsewhere. Fleener is another solid pick here as he is tied with Thomas for the team-lead in RZ targets with 4, and the Dolphins haven’t been great against TEs either (they rank 20th in DVOA against them so far). They gave up 5-31-0 to an out of shape ASJ last week and 9-91-1 to Gates and Henry the week before.

We saw the Saints finally play with a lead last week and, predictably, Kamara was not as heavily involved. He did still see the 2nd-most passing targets on the team, which gives him a safe floor, but he doesn’t have much of a ceiling. Instead, we saw Ingram and AP lead the way with 14 and 9 carries respectively. Ingram also continues to be moderately involved in the passing game as he saw another 4 targets. On the larger slates, I’m fine steering clear of this backfield entirely as the Dolphins have been solid against the run so far as we touched on earlier (just as a quick note, while not allowing many yards, they have allowed a rushing TD in each game so far). As I mentioned last week, I expected Timmons’ suspension to be short and indeed it was – he has now been reinstated and will play this coming week, which also bodes ill for the Saints’ run game.

LAR (20.75) @ DAL (26.75)

DeMarcus Lawrence was a force on MNF, and my only knock against him is that his conditioning seems wanting. The Rams’ o-line has so far graded out fairly poorly, especially on the right side, so I think that we will see a lot of pressure come from both Lawrence and Crawford. In other bad news for the Rams’ pass catchers, Watkins is currently in the concussion protocol. If he cannot play, I’m not sure what formations they will run, but I do have faith that McVay will get creative. By the way, I do owe an apology to McVay as I didn’t think he would have this much success with the tools at his disposal. Big kudos to what he has done so far.

Anyway, back to the Rams’ WRs. Fitz absolutely abused Dallas out of the slot last week, so this nominally means that Kupp could have a big day here. Comparing a rookie to Fitz isn’t the best comparison, however, so we really need to temper our expectations – especially since Kupp is only averaging 3 catches on 4.6 targets a game. I do think that Woods becomes cash playable if Watkins sits as he is only $3900 here. The game script should be in his favor and his pass routes have increased every week so far – 29>28>25 – and I’m not scared of Anthony Brown as he has been middling so far both this year and last. I don’t love this as Higbee has seen only nominal involvement so far, but Dallas does seem susceptible across the middle to TEs as they just gave up 5-47-0 to relatively unused Jermaine Gresham last week. If Watkins cannot play, I do think it is possible that McVay tries to get his TEs more involved here, and Higbee does already have 2 RZ targets on the year.

In regards to Gurley, I clearly need to adjust my expectations here. McVay is opening things up for him by forcing people to respect the Rams’ passing game, and he is currently 3rd in the NFL in RZ rushing attempts with 13. While I still don’t think he is terribly efficient, I clearly cannot let this deter me without thinking about him further. DAL is not great against the run as they rank 21st in DVOA and 25th against receiving backs, and I think that this might actually be generous. They are allowing an average receiving line of 7.3-54.7-0.3 to RBs so far, and this is going up against the powerhouses of NYG, DEN, and ARI. CJA has been the best back that they have faced to date and he absolutely demolished them for a 25-118-1 rushing line and another 3-36-1 through the air. Gurley will be extremely popular this week after blowing up last week against the 49ers, but this is another great situation for him.

I don’t care what the refs say, Dez did not get the ball across the goal line on MNF. Either way, Dez continues to get force fed red zone targets (he’s at 6 currently), so we do need to consider him every week. He also figures to line up against Troy Hill for the most part here and, while Hill has been average so far this year, he was one of the worst in the league last year. So far this year, Dez has had a rough go of it and hasn’t been able to top 59 yards – the TDs have kept his fantasy value relatively intact – but he is averaging 9 targets a week and costs only $6500. I fully expect that they really try to get him going here. The 49ers also exposed the Rams pass defense last week as they gave up 142 yards to Garcon alone with the rest of the team tacking on another 126 and a couple of TDs for good measure. Even after this, the Rams do rank 6th in pass DVOA, but I’m not as afraid of them here. It is also worth noting that the Cowboys are the 10th-most pass-heavy team while leading, so something to keep in mind. By the way, you should probably pick up Brice Butler on all dynasty teams – he put up 2-90-1 on 3 routes last week and the Cowboys will be fools if they don’t start using him more (they have been this kind of fool for quite some time now though looking at his usage to date).

Zeke is also in an excellent spot here. Not only do the Rams grade out at a much weaker 19th in DVOA against the run, they have also given up a breathtaking 5 rushing TDs on the year so far. Outside of the DEN game, Zeke has seen a ton of volume with at least 22 carries in each of the other two. He is also averaging 4.7 targets per game, which is great news for his floor.

TEN (22.5) @ HOU (21)

Will Fuller might return for this one and it will be interesting to see his chemistry out there. Bruce Ellington looked pretty good this past week and put up 4-59-1 while playing almost every snap, but this seems fluky and I’m not sure how this will play out with Fuller back. Remember though, Fuller had a shoulder issue, so he should have had no issues staying in shape and keeping his legs conditioned while he was out. We could also see Hopkins targets drop precipitously with Fuller’s return, so there is definitely cause for concern with Nuk here (I believe it drops from about 12 per game without Fuller to 8.5ish with him). These numbers do come with different QBs at the helm though, so the drop might not be as dramatic as we have seen in the past. I’m also not sure if Nuk’s position will change at all with Fuller back. Currently, he runs 59% of his snaps from the left side, which would line him up against LeShaun Sims for the majority of the day. This is clearly not a match-up that we need to be frightened of, but Fuller gets an even better match-up against Adoree’ Jackson on the other side (TEN is currently 29th in DVOA against the opponent’s WR2). I honestly can’t give him a strong recommendation other than he makes for an interesting GPP flier just because of all of the unknowns here.

If you own Lamar Miller in season-long, I sincerely hope that you can either find a trade partner right now while his name might still net you something or that you have Foreman stashed on your bench. I should have mentioned this last week, but Foreman clearly looks like the better back here, and I really think that Lamar’s days are numbered as the Texans RB1. We have seen Foreman’s pass routes increase every week so far (1 to 5 to 8) and he is averaging 10 carries per game over his last two. I don’t actually love targeting either HOU RB here, however, due to projected negative game script and because TEN has looked stronger against the run so far (Lynch is the only one to put up more than 40 rushing yards against them so far this year).

As Brady showed last week, attacking the Texans’ right side (so Brady’s left), is clearly very successful since that is where replacement FS, Marcus Gilchrist, and replacement CB, Johnthan Banks, line up. Their slot man, Kareem Jackson, has also graded out abysmally so far this year, ranking 96th out of 109 CBs. The Titans have also ruled out Corey Davis for Week 4 already, so Matthews, Decker, and Walker will probably see increased workloads (Taylor should also get additional snaps). It’s tough to say exactly where each WR will line up as TEN moves them around quite a bit, but here are the pluralities for each:

WR Left Slot Right
Decker 30 47 22
Taylor 24 65 12
Matthews 24 31 46

 

Thus, all should get their chances, but Matthews will see Joseph the most who is, by far, the Texans’ best CB. With that being said, Mariota definitely seems to riff best with Matthews, and he is averaging 8 targets a game so far this year and comes in at $4900. Decker averages only 6 targets a game, but comes in at $4200 and has seen 5 RZ targets to Matthews 4. With Delanie at the price of Matthews and not seeing and RZ targets so far, he is my least favorite option out of the 3 of them. HOU has given up 5 receiving TDs on the year so far, but all 5 of them came last week against NE. Also, one of the earlier games came against the Jags, so no receiving TDs expected there. Make of this what you will.

First of all, screw the Titans for using DeMarco a ton last week when he is gimpy with a hamstring injury, and damn him for putting up a huge day. I had a lot of Henry, and it would have worked out incredibly well if they used him exclusively instead. The beat writers also expected them to use a lot of Henry there, so I guess I feel at least somewhat validated. Anyway, the Texans are stronger against the run regardless (7th versus 19th against the pass in DVOA), so I think the Titans will have more luck throwing the ball here. With this backfield still up in the air, I’m more than happy to avoid this situation.

DET (20.5) @ MIN (22)

Rhodes has now shut down another top WR as he limited Evans to 5-53-0 last week, and MJ looks to be the next man up (down?). Golladay was DNP on Thursday with his hamstring injury, so the passing game will probably have to flow through Tate and Ebron to a lesser extent (Ebron had another couple of bad drops this past week). Outside of Rhodes, MIN has been gashed by big pass plays with D-Jax and Martavis both having their way with the rest of the secondary, and this is reflected in the Vikings’ 27th overall pass DVOA (they are 29th against TEs and 30th against WR2s). This all bodes very well for Tate. Tate is also seeing, on average, 9 targets per game and has seen 3 in the RZ so far this year. Ebron has also seen 3 on the year so far, and is averaging 5 targets per game, while the Vikings have given up a TD to TEs in 2 out of the 3 weeks so far (1 to Fleener and 1 to Brate). Both are very much in play here, and Ebron comes in at a very attractive $3100 (don’t get me wrong, I’m also fine paying Tate’s price of $6300).

Ok, so I was wrong about Abdullah being injured after Week 2, and he now has averaged 17.3 touches per game (only 2 receptions per game, however). This is great for a player at only $4200, but he only has 3 carries and 1 catch in the red zone, so his touches are not very high value and you are basically counting on him to break a long TD. MIN is strong against the run in general, 10th in DVOA, and against RB receivers, 13th in DVOA, so I’m fine staying away here.

Bradford has already been officially ruled out for Week 4 and, since it’s only Thursday when I’m writing this, I assume that he is still a couple of weeks away from returning. Much to the surprise of everyone, yours truly included, Keenum actually looked decent last week and led a rout over the Bucs last week with 369 yards and 3 TDs. Also surprisingly, the Lions are much better against the pass than they have been in recent memory as they currently rank 5th in DVOA. This might be smoke and mirrors though as they faced an injured OBJ and a weak Cardinals team so far, while also getting lit up by Matt Ryan. Personally, I feel like they are somewhere in between, and might be at least quasi-legitimate this year. Diggs is just an incredible talent, so you can never fully write him off, but he will likely see relatively high ownership between what he did last week and how everyone perceives the Lions. Thielen will go up against Quandre Diggs in the slot, who currently ranks 4th among CBs per PFF, so I don’t have much interest in him.

While Detroit’s pass defense might be acceptable, their run D is middling as they rank 16th in DVOA. I also think that this will probably end up lower than it currently sits as they haven’t faced many strong ground games either (DVOA adjusts for strength of schedule and should have already hypothetically accounted for this, but I feel like the adjustments become better after Week 4). DJ put up 14.1 DK points on them in Week 1 before he got injured, the Giants don’t have a rushing game, and Freeman toasted them for 21-106-1 on the ground and another 3-32 through the air (good for 25.8 points). In Cook, we have a tale of two RBs – when the Vikings win, he sees an average of 24.5 carries, but when they lose, this drops precipitously to 12 carries. Interestingly, he also sees fewer targets when they are behind – 3 versus the 5 he sees when they are ahead. This week Vegas projects the Vikings to win, and with how both teams played last week, that is my take as well.

BUF (20.25) @ ATL (28.25)

Let me talk to you about my love for McCoy this week. While Shady’s rushing usage is starting to get concerning as he has seen an average of 13 carries per game over his last two, his usage in the passing game continues to give him a rock solid floor. Over this same time frame, he is averaging 6.5-41-0 through the air, and I have mentioned multiple times, ATL gets destroyed by pass-catching RBs. To quote my write-up from last week, “they have given up 8-47-1 to Cohen and 6-75-1 to TyMont,” and the only reason that they didn’t give up another receiving TD to Riddick last week is that they tackled him in the end zone while the ball was still in the air (he did put up 4-38-0 outside of that and Abdullah also put up 3-39-0 through the air). Overall, the Falcons are giving up 8.7-73.3-0.7 per game through the air to RBs. Shady is also top-10 in rushing attempts within the red zone this year (9), but doesn’t have any TDs to show for this. Yet. While giving up multiple receiving TDs already this year, the Falcons have also given up rushing TDs in 2 out of their 3 games played. Also, in regards to my earlier concerns about his recent rushing usage, I’m prepared to believe some or most of this stems from the SoS he has faced recently as he goes from 3rd-hardest against the run to 2nd-easiest this week. McCoy clocks in at $8400 this week, and I plan to have a lot of him.

ATL is much stronger against the pass as they rank 13th in DVOA in that regard, and are even stronger against TEs as they clock in at 6th in DVOA. With this strength against the TE position, I don’t have any interest in TyGod’s 2nd-favorite target, Clay. In regards to the other receiving options, Jones and Matthews are only averaging around 4 targets a game. So even though they will have a positive game script and very cheap prices, I’m not willing to roll the dice here.

Sean McDermott was a DC before he became the Bills’ HC and boy does it show. BUF has looked very strong defensively this year and they rank 3rd in pass DVOA and 9th in run DVOA, and they have allowed a grand total of 1 TD so far this year. Dareus will also be back this week for the Bills, which only makes their defense tougher, especially since he figures to go against the weakest part of the Falcons’ o-line. This will be a helluva test for the Falcons, but it definitely helps them being in their friendly home confines. All-in-all, I think that this will be closer than the 8 point spread Vegas currently has.

I might need to start reevaluating Freeman’s role here as he has out-touched Coleman by 28 over the last two weeks, and has averaged 20 carries in those (19 and 21). My main gripe about Freeman, as I previously mentioned, is that he only had 20+ carries in two games last year. I’m very interested to see if they give him 20+ touches in back-to-back weeks as they have seemed loath to do this in the past. Freeman is also 7th in the league with 10 RZ carries compared to Coleman’s 1, so he is clearly getting valuable touches. With all of this being said and the Bills strength against receiving backs, I’m going to steer well clear of Coleman here, but I’m not sure what to do about Freeman. The Bills have only allowed one runner to put up more than 50 yards on them – Charles last week – and they look very strong. You might get lucky with Freeman getting a couple of dives into the end zone, but it feels risky to me even with the game script being in his favor.

Julio has been limited in practice throughout the week with a back issue, but Dan Quinn fully expects him to be out there this weekend. Between his injury and his usage this year, Julio has a lot of warts. He has only seen 2 RZ targets so far, which is the exact same as Hooper and Gabriel, and he is only averaging 8.7 targets per game so far. I do think that he is their best bet to move the ball though, as big-bodied WRs have seemed effective against the Bills so far with D-Thom putting up 6-98-0 and K-Benj going for 6-77-0. Both of them also primarily line up on the left hand side of the formation, which coincidentally is the same side that Julio spends the majority of his time at. It’s hard for me to tell exactly how good the Bills are against WRs this year since they have so far played the grounded Jets, the toothless Panthers, and then Siemian put up 259 yards on them, so they might not be as good as they currently look on paper. You should also be able to get Julio at criminally low ownership here.

CIN (22.25) @ CLE (19.25)

Eifert will be out multiple weeks with a back issue, so Green will continue to dominate WR looks (he literally more than tripled the number of targets the next man up received this past week against GB and he is averaging just north of 10 per week). We have also seen the Browns bleed fantasy points to WRs so far as they gave up 32.2 to AB in Week 1 and then another 31.3 to Hilton last week (the Ravens didn’t do much Week 2, but the Ravens also look #bad). While AJ Green does split his time between the left and right sides fairly equally – 39% on the left and 50% on the right – he will match up against Jamar Taylor while on the right side as Taylor almost exclusively plays LCB. Currently, Taylor ranks 2nd to last among all CBs per PFF, and this looks like an ideal match-up for Green. Giddyup.

Surprisingly, the Browns seem much stronger against the run as they are currently ranked 6th in DVOA there, but I’m not sure if I believe this. Remember, the Browns were one of the worst teams in the league against the run last year. Getting back to this year, the Steelers didn’t have to run it Week 1, Bell was out of shape at that point anyway, and the Colts don’t have a great run game period. In between those two, Buck Allen put up 21.1 DK points on them with 101 all-purpose yards and a receiving TD, while West added a rushing TD for good measure. It looks like it is time to hop on the Mixon train as his snaps and touches rose dramatically this past week. Not only did he get 18 carries, but he also out-targeted Gio and ran more pass routes per PFF. The plays that Lazor drew up were also clearly designed to get the ball into his hands, so I expect his usage to become even more substantial moving forward. Gio has also been limited all week so far, so while I expect him to suit up this weekend, it is another thing to keep an eye on. I’m ready to ride the Mixon express here (side bar – there has to be some kind of portmanteau we can do here).

The Browns continue to founder as Kizer goes through the normal rookie growing pains, and he seems pretty inaccurate out there. It also doesn’t help that all of his skill players let him down consistently, and DJ-lite is the only one who grades out as anything other than ‘Poor’ per PFF. The offensive line in front of him has also been surprisingly weak on the right side, which clearly isn’t helping. DJ-lite is the only Browns player I would consider playing due to his passing volume, but I don’t think he has the ceiling we want. While not at home, which is something I prefer, the Bengals’ D is clearly in play here (they are also getting Burfict back for this one).

JAX (20.5) @ NYJ (17.5)

Forte injured his toe in last week’s win against the Dolphins and he will not play this week, but the good news is that x-rays came back negative. Need I remind you what Powell did in the 3 games last year that Forte couldn’t play in? Regardless of whether I need to or not, I will – he averaged 20 carries and 5.7 catches over that period and went RB2, RB4, and RB35 in those weeks (they were against SF, MIA, and NE respectively). In Week 17, Forte returned in a limited capacity, and Powell proceeded to put up another 25.7 DK points. Jacksonville also carries the #1 pass defense and the worst run defense in football per DVOA, so the Jets should absolutely try to attack them on the ground.

Again, the Jags have the best pass defense in the NFL and I do not want to test their corners. You can take a volume-based flyer on ASJ if you want, but that is the only piece that I have even a remote interest in. By the way, the Jets should really play Stewart more. He had an awesome diving catch – his only catch – across the middle last week and, as a rookie, he will clearly benefit from all the snaps he can get.

For Jacksonville, their D will clearly be a popular play this week, but I have some concerns (I might just be overthinking this):

  • They are flying back from England
  • They just beat the bejeezus out of the Ravens, so this could be a letdown spot
  • They aren’t at home, and far from it, which always worries me

In regards to the Jaguars’ offense, they clearly just want to run the ball on every single down, and they shouldn’t really have to deviate from this plan against the Jets (which is too bad as the Jets have been very giving with 6 passing TDs so far this year). Regardless, let’s take a look at how they stack up against the ground game. The Dolphins clearly didn’t look very good last week, and the Jets held Ajayi to 16 yards on 11 carries. If you think this is a harbinger of things to come, feel free to stay away from Fournette. If you think this is just an outlier, let’s continue on with this dive. The week before that, they gave up 123 rushing yards to Oakland’s 3-headed committee with 2 TDs, and McCoy and Tolbert teamed up for 152 yards and another rush TD the week before. The Jets also gave up an average of 6.5-68-0 through the air in those two, and rank 23rd in DVOA against receiving backs. Fournette is definitely involved in the pass game with his 4 targets per game.

PIT (22.5) @ BAL (19.5)

Big Ben blames himself for the Steelers’ problems, and says that he is zeroing in on AB too much. Personally, I don’t hate that strategy. Regardless, it sounds like he might try to dish it to Martavis and Bell more moving forward, which will obviously improve their outlook. Martavis has missed a couple of practices in a row due to illness, however, so I’m not sure if he will be able to play this week. Thus, it might just be the Bell and Brown show. While BAL currently ranks out as the top overall D and are 2nd in DVOA against the pass and 12th against the run, how good are they really though?

The loss to the Jags last week was clearly an outlier and is hard to gauge due to the travel involved, but it helps to paint a not so stellar picture of them. Before that game, they played the Browns and Bengals, who are a combined 0-6 on the season so far, so their “competition” has clearly been lacking. Brown will primarily line up against Smith, who has actually graded out fairly well so far this year, but do you really think that he can stop AB? Bell just hasn’t seemed quite like himself yet, but as Dan pointed out earlier in the week, the first 3 games were basically like his preseason, so hopefully he was just knocking the rust off. He’s still seeing a ton of touches, the game script should favor him here, and you can get him at low ownership. He’s also 4th in the league with 12 RZ carries so far. Finally, as Evan Silva noted, Williams will not be able to play for the Ravens this week, and they are allowing 4.86 ypc without him. As Warren Sharp pointed out before last week’s shellacking at the hands of Mercedes Lewis, the Ravens are susceptible to TEs and they are currently ranked 32nd in DVOA against them, but Jesse James has been limited in practice throughout the week. If he is good to go, he becomes a very attractive option here between the match-up, price tag, and how he has seen the same number of RZ targets as Brown with 4.

Maxx Williams has already been ruled out for this week, and Ben Watson might also sit with a calf injury (he did return to practice on Friday, however). If neither can go, that would make Nick Boyle the next man up. Either way, I’m not interested in their TEs here. Frankly, the entire offense for the Ravens looks dysfunctional. I like the match-up Wallace has with Haden, but Wallace is only seeing an average of 3 targets per game so far (this is trending up, however, as it has gone 1<3<5 so far, and we have also seen his pass routes climb, 20<28<30). I might have some exposure, but definitely proceed with caution.

PIT has had an up-and-down year against RBs, but much like the Ravens, they haven’t faced any great teams so far. In Week 1, they took on the Browns, and then they faced a Bradford-less Vikings squad Week 2. Howard and Cohen then combined for 216 ground yards last week, along with another 9-50-0 through the air. West and Allen continue to split time, and I’m not excited about either option because of this.

CAR (20.25) @ NE (29.25)

First of all, big shout out to Warren Sharp who was the first to point out that the NE defense last year was actually not very good or efficient. This has continued into this year, and we are seeing some big numbers put up against them including 33 by the lowly Texans. I’m not necessarily saying that the Panthers can do the same, especially if Kalil is missing, but they could put up more points than a lot of people give them credit for in this spot. Another big injury to keep our eyes on is K-Benj as he went down with an awkward looking leg injury against the Saints last week. Thankfully, an MRI revealed no structural damage, and he did return to practice later in the week. If he cannot go, we should see heavy doses of CMC, Funchess, and perhaps even some Samuel mixed in. The Pats have given up multiple passing TDs in every game so far and, like I mentioned last week, are very susceptible to TEs in particular (by the way, I nailed that Griffin call). Unfortunately, with Olsen down, there isn’t a Carolina TE that I want to roll with. The other bad thing about the CAR pass-catchers is that Cam has looked atrocious all year, so I’m not even sure the league’s most generous pass defense can help him out.

The Pats have also been fairly giving to pass-catching RBs as they are giving up a line of 5.7-84.3-0.67 per game (just remember, Hunt “only” put up 98 yards through the air, so he didn’t totally skew this). They also know that CMC will be the best way for the Panthers to move the ball on them with Cam’s woes, so they will likely try and key on him, but I just don’t think they have the personnel that can stop him (Hightower *might* be able to and he figures to be back this week, so watch for this). CMC does come with a hefty price of $6800, however, which is a little hard for me to stomach for someone that isn’t a 3-down back. The Pats have been stouter against the run though, as they haven’t allowed more than 56 yards on the ground to anyone not named Kareem, so I’m not interested in J-Stew.

Both Gronk and Hogan are currently tied for 2nd in the league with 6 red zone targets a piece (along with a couple of other people). CAR is currently 2nd in DVOA against TEs, but they haven’t faced a player like Gronk yet – their stiffest competition has been Fleener who they held to 1-21-0. Out of the WRs, it looks like Amendola will have the easiest match-up in the slot as Munnerlyn continues to struggle. As Scott Barrett has pointed out repeatedly, Cooks performs drastically differently when matched against slow CBs versus fast CBs, and this was shown again this past week as he put up 130 of those yards and both TDs on CBs that ran above a 4.6 forty. This week, he gets Kevon Seymour who ran a 4.39, so I’m not going here. I might regret this later since Seymour doesn’t grade out all that well.

The Panthers have been pretty stingy to RBs so far, rank 5th in DVOA against the run, and have mostly shut down the Saints, McCoy, and Hyde so far this year. Gillislee can always bang in 3 given the chance, but outside of the game script, this doesn’t seem very favorable for him (he does have a nice price of only $5400). If he does get 3 TDs, I’m getting aboard the tilt train. The Panthers are also 8th in DVOA against receiving backs, so I don’t think that this sets up that favorably for White either.

NYG (20.75) @ TB (23.75)

Gerald McCoy is really good, but he aggravated his ankle sprain this past week, so we need to monitor his health for this week (he was in a walking boot after last week’s game and I doubt he can play). The Bucs will also be down SS TJ Ward, WLB, Lavonte David, and MLB Kwon Alexander, so their D is definitely hurting. The Giants don’t have much of a run game though, and I’m not interested in targeting one of them this week.

Per Graham Barfield, we know that the NYG have the highest pass rate (72.7%) while trailing and they also have the 3rd-highest red zone pass rate (70.0%). Vegas also predicts the Giants to trail this week and TB has the 29th ranked pass defense per DVOA. Put it together and what do you get? A rosy outlook for OBJ. As we saw last week at Philly, a healthy OBJ is a complete difference maker for this offense, and Eli will target him extensively (he saw 13 last week). This week, OBJ figures to line up mostly against Vernon Hargreaves and Brent Grimes, both of which rank 89th or lower so far this year. Tampa’s outside CBs have also given up 3 TDs in two games, and I like OBJ’s odds to add more onto this total. With OBJ back, this clearly opens things up a lot for Shepard as well, and he will run his routes against the woeful Robert McClain, the 103rd-ranked CB. So far, he has given up 5-98-0 and 7-69-0 out of the slot to Thielen and Kendall Wright respectively. He is clearly also in play.

Keep an eye on Olivier Vernon here as he hurt his ankle last week and his status for this week looks to be very much in question. The MRI came back as negative though, so even if he does miss here, he shouldn’t be out too long. Evans will have another tough match-up against Jenkins this week, so this will put D-Jax on Eli Apple. Tampa Bay hasn’t cornered the market on bad CBs as Apple is the 95th-ranked CB currently (insert obligatory joke about Apple being the apple of my DFS eye here). The Giants are also very bad against TEs:

Week Recs Rec

Yards

Rec TDs DK Points
Zach Ertz 3 8 55 1 18.5
Eric Ebron 2 5 42 1 15.2
Jason Witten 1 7 59 1 18.9

 

Fire Brate right up in this idyllic match-up.

For being a hypothetically strong D, the Giants have a lot of weak spots. We can also target Tampa’s run game here as the G-Men rank 29th in DVOA against the run, and have given up 138, 106, and 104 ground yards respectively to the powerhouse run games of Blount/Smallwood, Abdullah/Riddick, and Elliott. While Quizz didn’t do great against the Bears in Week 2, we do know that they aren’t afraid to give him a ton of touches when they are up (he had 19 carries that week), so I think we can predict something similar here since the game script will tentatively be on his side. I say tentatively because I’m not sold that the Giants don’t put up a bunch of points here.

PHI (23) @ LAC (25)

Sproles went down with a broken arm and torn ACL, so he is done for the year. I hope that he can make it back for one more year as this is a terrible way to go out. As Adam Levitan noted, after Sproles went down, Smallwood filled in on 38 snaps to Blount’s 15, and out-carried him inside the 10-yard line 4 to 3. Doug Pederson has also said that Smallwood is in for an increased role moving forward, so I think that Smallwood will end up being one of the favored salary-saving RBs this week. I’m not sold on this, however, as the Chargers are 2nd in DVOA against pass-catching RBs, and I still think that the Eagles’ RBs will cannibalize each other’s touches. It would be nice if there was a set lead back here as the Chargers have given up 122+ yards rushing to Ajayi and Hunt in back-to-back weeks and rank a lowly 24th against the run in general.

While the Chargers do rank a decent 12th in DVOA against the pass, they only rank 31st against TEs, and have already given up 5 receiving TDs this year. Outside of 1 of these receiving TDs, none have gone to a WR1 as Hayward has done a good job shutting them down so far, so Jeffrey is hands-off for me. Agholor has the easiest match-up out of the slot, but after his 8-target 1st game of the year, Wentz has gone his way only 3 times per game since. During Agholor’s decline, Smith has seen his targets go from 3 in the 1st game to an average of 6.5 over the last two. After looking into the TE situation a little more, I’m actually not sure why they grade out so low against TEs as they just shutdown Kelce last week with a 1-1-0 line, and they haven’t given up any other big lines so far. Their safeties and linebackers do all grade out fairly poorly so far though, so it might just be a matter of time before they give up a big game. Ertz is seeing huge volume overall and is having himself a monster year with an average stat line of 7-81.7-0.3. His salary has climbed all the way up to $6300 though, so you need him to hit his average and score a TD to pay off in GPPs (he does have 3 RZ looks so far on the season, which is tied for the team lead with Agholor). Regardless of which way you go, the Eagles figure to trail here and throw regardless, so pick your poison.

Each time the Eagles pass defense gets tested by a legitimate threat, they fail miserably. Two weeks ago, Kelce put up a monster line on them while lining up all over the formation (8-103-1), and OBJ just came back and pasted them with 9-79-2 on 13 targets. Shepard also added 7-133-1 out of the slot on top of that. Outside of the game against the Giants, Robinson has looked decent in the slot this year, but he was really bad last year in general. Maybe it was just an off game or maybe it was him returning to his old form, but things don’t look good for him with Keenan coming to town. TyWill also gets the atrocious Jalen Mills on the outside, so he gonna eat (side note, every team knows that Mills is bad as he has been targeted a league-high 42 times this season). Benjamin has the most difficult match-up against rookie Rasul Douglas who has looked #good so far, but the Eagles did specifically draft him to deal with larger-bodied WRs, so we will see how he performs against a smaller speedster. Regardless of Benjamin, I fully expect Rivers to be able to take advantage of the Eagles’ secondary here.

Fletcher Cox also had a significant limp while walking off of the field with a calf injury, and this will be a big hit to the Eagles if he cannot play this week. Gordon has also been limited all week with a knee issue, and the Eagles are much stronger against the run than the pass (the DVOAs don’t agree with this assessment, but I think the DVOAs are wrong here). While the Chargers do figure to lead in this one, which will work in Gordon’s favor, I won’t be surprised if he sees fewer touches than normal due to his knee and how easily they will move it through the air.

SF (19) @ ARI (25.5)

In Week 2, it looked like CJ2K had laid claim to the Cardinals’ backfield, and Bruce Arians sounded like he wanted Johnson to be his bellcow moving forward. That was not to be against DAL. While CJ2K still saw his 11-12 carries, Ellington seemed to move past him on the depth chart as he saw his snaps jump dramatically – going up from 20 the week before to 33 while as a RB, and then from 9 to 14 as a receiver (Johnson played 25 snaps as a back and 4 as a WR). Part of this was due to the fact that the Cardinals trailed for a while in this game, but they gave Ellington plenty of carries as well as utilizing him as a receiver, especially after Johnson dropped a nice gain across the middle. Long story short, this backfield remains a mess and I’m not going here on the main slate, which is a shame since the Cardinals are projected to have a good lead. If this comes to fruition, they might go back to CJ2K as the lead, but Ellington just looked better than him to me, so I give no guarantees that they don’t keep him more involved. Finally, outside of last week, the 49ers haven’t really been that bad against the run and rank 13th in DVOA (and even last week, Gurley wasn’t terribly efficient as he averaged right around 4.0 ypc, he just had a ton touches).

While SF has been better than expected against the run, they have been pretty terrible against the pass and rank 30th in DVOA. The 49ers have already given up 4 passing TDs to WRs, and allowed both Rams’ outside WRs to put up 100+ yards on them last week. It remains to be seen if John Brown can suit up this week, but Arians said that he would on Friday, so he will run the majority of his routes against 107th-ranked Rashard Robinson on the right side (I’m still skeptical until I hear that he is good to go on Sunday and I’m not sure if he will play a full complement of snaps even if he is active). If he is held out again, that will put JJ Nelson there instead, and I think that this makes for a good bounce-back position for Nelson as Palmer just missed him on some long throws (including a TD) last week. Since he played in the Monday night game, his price didn’t get lowered at all, which does lower his appeal some. All of the Cardinal WRs have superb match-ups though, and all have big game potential here. Fitz leads all receivers with 8 red zone targets, but he has converted these into only 4 catches and 1 TD. Obviously, this number could be a lot different at this point in the year. While he does have huge TD equity and is in a great spot, he will see the highest ownership of the 3 after what he did last week, and I feel like it is unlikely that he has another 100+ yard game. Remember, he only had 1 of these all of last year. Do you know who is tied for #2 in the NFL in red zone targets? Jaron Brown come on down!

I love Shanahan and think that the 49ers are very lucky to have him. He continuously gets the most from what he has, and always schemes ways to get the ball into the hands of his skill guys. A good case in point is Carlos Hyde. Coming into this year, Hyde averaged less than 2 targets per game, but he currently sits at over 5 targets per game this year. He is also tied for the league-lead in rushing attempts in the red zone with 14. The problem with Hyde is that he will be a game-time decision with his hip injury, so Breida might end up with the start here instead. While the game script won’t be great for him and ARI does rank 9th in DVOA against the run, make sure that you are aware of what is going on here as this does potentially present an ideal late-swap scenario – if Hyde is declared out at the last minute, you will be able to get a starting RB at <1% ownership. Hyde has averaged 16.3 carries and 5.3 targets through his 3 games this year, and I assume that Breida would step right into a similar workload, especially with all of the glowing things that have been said about him throughout the summer. Also, while not allowing a runner to go over 80 yards on the year yet, the Cardinals have given up a TD to a RB in each of their 3 games so far.

I assume PP will follow Garcon into the slot this week as Garcon runs about ¼ of his routes from there (24 versus 75 on the outside), so I fully expect Garcon to get shutdown. Thus, this leaves Bethel on Goodwin, who is seeing 5.7 targets/game so far this year. Outside of PP, the Cardinals have bled fantasy points to WRs, and SF should have to throw it here, so I am very intrigued by Goodwin at only $3500. The problem is that Goodwin has not looked great so far, but I have said before he will blow up one of these weeks, and I think this week might be the one.

OAK (21.5) @ DEN (24.5)

Jack Del Rio stated that Amari needs to fix his drops issue as Cooper had another couple of ugly ones last week against WAS, but he did speak more positively about him later in the week. Amari keeps seeing red zone looks as he has 6 targets already, but if he can’t correct this glaring weakness, I expect these opportunities to dwindle eventually. Crabtree did not practice on Friday, which is an ominous sign, but this does make a contrarian case for Cooper here. After how bad he has looked, I don’t love it, but hear me out:

  • The DEN CBs almost exclusively play sides, and even if Crabtree were to play, Cooper would be on Roby’s side for the majority of the day. Roby is clearly the weakest part of this DEN secondary.
  • If Crabtree doesn’t play, Cooper’s RZ role will increase even more, and we don’t have to worry about the dreaded Crabtree triple vulture (fun side note – I think this can be referred to as a Crabtree wake, since a wake of vultures is when they are feeding).
  • OAK will have to throw it since they project to be down.
  • Cooper has seen his price drop all the way down to $6000, which is the cheapest he has been all year.

The other option you could look at is Jared Cook. DEN ranks 25th in DVOA against TEs, and have given up TDs to TEs in 2 out of 3 weeks so far. Last week, Clay put up 6-39-1 (15.9 points) while Witten put up 10-97-1 (25.7 points) the week before. Cook is seeing 5.7 targets per game so far this year and has seen RZ targets in back-to-back weeks now.

DEN ranks 1st in run DVOA and I don’t want to target this timeshare anyway.

OAK is very weak against the pass as they rank 28th in DVOA so far and Siemian has actually looked pretty decent for the most part this year. In 3 games so far, he has topped 23 DK points twice, and he still clocks in at only $5100 here. He didn’t fare very well against BUF last week, but BUF does seem to have a very solid defense so far. No WR-CB match-up really jumps off the page here as all OAK CBs have graded out as ‘Average’ and they haven’t really given up any huge lines yet this year, but D-Thom does have the slight advantage as Amerson grades out a little below both Conley and Carrie so far. OAK does seem to be slightly more susceptible to larger receivers since they just gave up a TD to Doctson and another to Davis last week, while also allowing Delanie to put up 7-76 in Week 1. D-Thom is seeing 8.7 targets/game so far, while Sanders is seeing an even more impressive 9.7. Sanders has also out-targeted D-Thom 5-1 in the RZ. Feel free to take your pick from the two of them or even stack them both up as you know that they will see volume.

While OAK does seem slightly better against the run game as they rank 17th in DVOA there, they do rank a lowly 32nd against receiving backs. This might have something to do with the 6-150-1 receiving line Thompson laid on them last week. Other than that, however, they haven’t given up more than 53 rushing yards to a single back and haven’t allowed a rushing TD all year. CJA’s usage all took a worrying plunge last week as Charles out-carried him 9 to 8. Again, this could have just been due to the strong BUF defense, but if you think that this is an omen of things to come, feel free to stay away here since split backfields are no Bueno.

IND @ SEA

The Colts have already ruled Luck out for this week, so we can expect more of Brissett. He will also have the back-up C in there again as Ryan Kelly won’t play again this week. This is clearly far from ideal for Brissett as he heads into SEA who has the 11th-best pass DVOA. As we saw last week, Hilton can score any time he touches the ball, but he will line up on Sherman’s side for the plurality of his routes (38%),  which makes this match-up even worse.

Quite frankly, the SEA run D looks abysmal so far. They currently rank 30th in DVOA , have given up 115+ rushing yards to their opponent’s lead back in each of the past two weeks, and lead backs are averaging 20.5 DK points against them. Unfortunately, I think that Gore won’t be able to meet these lofty standards as the Colts o-line currently ranks dead last in run blocking per DVOA.

Baldwin has a groin strain, but it is not believed to be too serious and he did make it through Friday’s practice. One of these weeks though, Lockett is going to explode. I had him around 20% in my lines last week, and he ended up playing on 66 of the 73 SEA snaps, and ran routes on 55 of those, which was 7 more than Richardson. Richardson managed to outscore him 11 to 5 DK points, however, but I do not expect this to continue. Lockett has also seen 3 RZ targets, but none have been converted into TDs yet, so we can expect positive regression there as well. Finally, per Scott Barrett, the Colts have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to deep targets so far with 60.2 so far this year. The one knock against Lockett, however, is that Vontae Davis returns this week, and Lockett will be on his side of the field for the majority of the day. Last year, Davis was atrocious though, so I’m not sold that he can return to pre-2016 form until I see him play.

Rawls only played 1 snap last week, and Lacy didn’t play at all, while Carson had 11 carries to Prosise’s 4. Prosise now has an ankle injury that will keep him out this week. Apparently, McKissic might fill Prosise’s role, but what’s a McKissic? I’m far more likely to believe that Carson just takes over everything. While Indy has been surprisingly stout against the run so far this year, 11th in DVOA, they have given up 3 rushing TDs so far on the season, and have allowed 20+ DK points in 2 of the 3 weeks.

WAS @ KC

Gruden continues to aver that he will not increase Thompson’s workload at all, but this is clearly at least somewhat bull. He said that before last week’s game as well and then proceeded to double his touches. In Weeks 1 and 2 combined, Thompson had 6 carries and 7 catches, and these jumped to 8 and 6 respectively last week. You will notice that I said that this was only somewhat bull, however, and I say this because his number of pass routes actually dropped last week (23>21>18). This says a couple of things to me:

  • They are designing more plays to get the ball in his hands (this is also shown by his 6.3 targets/game this year versus only seeing 3.9 last year)
  • They actually are serious about limiting his time on the field

KC also ranks much better against receiving backs, 5th in DVOA, versus regular backs, 26th (remember, KC held Sproles to a 2-30-0 line in Week 2 and James White to 3-30-0 in Week 1). Thompson will be the absolute chalk on every small slate, but I will probably end up fading him. Kelley will be back this week after sitting last week with a rib injury, and I’m much more intrigued by him as KC has given up 4 rushing TDs so far this year and he makes for a great pivot off of Thompson.

Don’t look now, but Josh Doctson is finally starting to get healthy as we have seen his snap rate increase 3 weeks in a row, and he caught a TD last week. Reed is practicing again, however, and will probably play this week, so unfortunately I think we will see Doctson recede at least while Reed is healthy. If Reed goes down again, which is fairly likely, have Doctson on your waiver wire speed dial as I expect him to be the biggest beneficiary of that. Pryor splits his time exactly evenly between the right and left sides, so he will see Marcus Peters for half of his day. Between this and how out of sorts he has looked with Cousins, I don’t love him here. When not in Peters’ coverage, he will line up against Terrance Mitchell, which looks like a far easier match-up for him as he has graded out woefully so far this year. Mitchell was much better in each of the previous two years, however, so he might be able to return to form at some point. The WAS WR with the easiest match-up is Crowder as he gets the woeful Phillip Gaines here. Take all of the Crowder here.

The Chiefs move Hill all around the formation and Norman plays almost exclusively on the left side (i.e. the Chiefs’ right side), so Reid won’t have any problems getting him matched up on everyone other than Norman. Kelce has the plum match-up though as WAS ranks 30th in DVOA against TEs and have given up either 95+ yards or a TD to one of them in each game so far.

No one can stop Hunt and, while WAS does rank 3rd in DVOA against the run, I don’t expect them to be able to stop him either. So far, WAS has faced the run “game” of the Eagles, had the fortune of absolutely crushing OAK (i.e. so they weren’t tested there), and allowed Todd Gurley to put up 27.6 DK points on them while scoring both a rushing and receiving TD. Hmmm, I wonder which of these Hunt will more closely resemble come Tuesday morning.


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