NFL Week 6 Player Target Report

QUARTERBACKS

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Aaron Rodgers ($7,300) – The Vikings excel at stopping the run.  This game could be a sneaky shootout with injuries to the running game on each side of the ball.  With a $800 price discount on Rodgers from last week, he should easily be able to hit value.  If the Packers are going to win this game, it is going to be through the air.  Rodgers has thrown for less than 225 yards the last 2 games and has still hit 23 points in those weeks.  I think we see closer to the 35-40 attempts Rodgers had in the first 2 weeks which could lead to some pretty impressive fantasy production.  Many people are also intimidated by the Vikings Defense.  However, they have been vulnerable through the air, ranking 21st in PASS Def DVOA.  If Nelson plays, I love stacking Rodgers with Adams or Cobb as WR2 and WR3 will avoid Rhodes for the most part.

Also consider: Tom Brady, Drew Brees

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Deshaun Watson ($6,700) – Watson’s price has increased $1,600 since his Week 4 thrashing of TEN.  Last week he wasn’t on the main slate and put up 35 points for the second week in a row.  And now he gets the Browns?  I am hoping his price increase keeps people off of him as he can beat you through the air and on the ground.  Cleveland ranks 31st in Pass Def DVOA.  The price of the stack between Watson and Hopkins has increased incredibly which makes me hope that the ownership will be lower as they should be able to put up points against this pass defense.

Carson Palmer ($6100) – Palmer has thrown for more than 295 yards in 4 of the first 5 weeks of the season. This week he gets matched up against the Bucs who are ranked 27th DVOA vs the pass. The Cardinals have been forced to throw with the injury to DJ, and the RB usage through the air with has still been there with Ellington. Ellington has seen double digit targets the last 2 weeks, and I don’t mind the stack for GPPs. I think game script is going to be in ARI favor and we see 45 plus attempts in this game from him.

Also Consider: Phillip Rivers, Matt Stafford (if healthy)

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Josh McCown ($5,200) – I have a list of rules I go through each week and 1 of those is WHO IS PLAYING AGAINST THE PATRIOTS DEFENSE – insert that QB in your lineup. This week that is Josh McCown who has led the Jets to a 3 and 2 record. QBs against the Patriots this year have averaged 335 yards per game with almost 3 passing TDs. They are on pace to set some absurd defensive passing stats this season. McCown has not yet thrown for 300 yards this year, but this will be his best bet all season. I like pairing McCown with either ASJ, Kearse or Robby Anderson.

Case Keenum ($5,000) – At almost min price, you are getting a quarterback against a weak secondary with strong weapons in the passing game.  We will have to keep an eye on Diggs as I’m not sure I like that play as much with only one of his stud receivers.  Keenum gets a pass defense ranked 19th in Pass Def DVOA.  At this price, I can see Keenum hitting 3x against this secondary.

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions: Kevin Hogan

Running Backs

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Kareem Hunt ($8200) – Hunt proved this last week he can handle the workhorse RB load for the Chiefs carrying the ball for 29 times and catching 3 passes. Now Charcandrick West got 3 touches and both of those were TDs. Just a bad beat for Hunt and imagine the game he would have had if he caught both of those TDs. Hunt matches up against a Steelers team that gives up yards to RBs. We saw Fournette this last week gash them for almost 200 yards and the Bears earlier this season run at will. I love the volume and offense Hunt is in, something I am always looking for in my backs.

Todd Gurley ($7700) – Todd Gurley faces the run funnel pass defense of the Jags, something we touched on last week and why I was so bullish on Leveon. Now lets take a minute to talk about that, Jags were ranked number 1 in DVOA pass defense and worst in the NFL against the rush. If you are the Steelers you should be giving Leveon the ball 30 times in that game – what does Todd Haley do instead, let Big Ben throw for 50 times and getting picked off 5 times. As a DFS player that analyzes stats, this just blows my mind there are coaches out there doing things like this. Back to Gurley, he gets to face this run funnel D and I hope the Rams do not give Tavon Austin carries again this week. Goff will not be able to throw outsisde against Bouye and Ramsey so this will give Gurley plenty of opportunities this week.

Leonard Fournette ($8,000) – You get the most run heavy offense playing the defense (Rams) allowing the most fantasy points to running backs.  It doesn’t take a mathematician to figure out that equation.  I love loading up on these top 3 rb’s as we have seen what their ceilings can be.

Also Consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Doug Martin ($5,800) – There isn’t much to love in this price range.  I would rather pay up for both running backs mentioned above or pay up for one and use one of our value picks below.  However, Doug Martin gets a very reasonable price tag and is now settled back into this offense.  Arizona is a pretty strong run D (7th Rush DVOA) which makes me not love this play but can get behind a sprinkle of ownership as he can break off some runs and find the end zone as the premier red zone back in this offense.  This is a pure GPP play this week as his floor is lowered against the Cardinals.

Also Consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Alvin Kamara ($4500) – AP has been traded to the Cardinals leaving Kamara to battle with Ingram. I have seen reports that there will be about a 60/40 time share in favor of Ingram.  With the possibility of 3-4 more touches, Kamara has a rock solid floor at $4,500 in PPR formats making him a viable option.  Kamara was a real talent at Tennessee in college, and the Saints are using him more as a passing back. Last game against the Dolphins he caught 10 passes for 71 yards and a TD. I think Kamara is a great option in stacking this high point total in Detroit and New Orleans. ***Stafford’s leg injury is taking me off Kamara and moving toward Ingram. See below***

Mark Ingram ($4400) – As this week goes on the more I am moving my shares to Ingram over Kamara. Kamara is a great play this week but he is really getting talked up and Stafford’s injury concerns me with the Saints running away in this game. Ingram has more TD equity over Kamara and has been the RB in New Orleans for some time even if Payton has not always reflected that. He will see 15+ touches at $4400 and game script will be in his favor, Stafford does not look to be healthy and this game could get ugly.

Andre Ellington ($5,300) – I hope we get news that AP will get eased into this offense or that he replaces Chris Johnson altogether. Ellington’s floor is incredible for cash games as he has seen 10+ targets the last 2 games in an offense that can’t establish the run.  Playing against the injury riddled TB defense, we could see 10+ targets again this week as long as we don’t get news that AP will be thrust into the offense. ***With the news of AP being traded I am off of Ellington, Jerrick & Ingram are my value plays now***

Jerrick McKinnon ($4,100) – There was speculation that Murray would take the reins with the injury to Cook.  JET wanted to make sure that this didn’t happen as he exploded for 26 PPR points.  Going up against the 20th ranked Rush DVOA defense, McKinnon should crush value as he has shown he can be successful in the passing game as well.  Mckinnon should see 15-18 rushes along with 6-8 targets making him a viable option in all formats.

Also Consider: Buck Allen, James White

Late Week Additions:  

Wide Receivers

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Julio Jones ($8300) – Julio is coming off a bye week to rest his hip and prepare for a glorious match up against a very weak Dolphins secondary. Sanu is most likely going to miss this game and will force more targets Julio’s way. He has yet to get a touchdown this year, and I think this is the week he gets going at home on turf.

Michael Thomas ($7,300) – It’s been a while since the Saints have been on the main slate.  Take this opportunity to get on Thomas prior to the rest of the public.  We saw what large WR’s can do to the Lions last week.  Thomas has back to back games with touchdowns along with averaging over 9 targets a game.  At this price, you can easily fit Thomas into your lineups.  With the usage and upside, I will be heavily overweight on Thomas.

Keenan Allen ($7,900) – Keenan Allen and Antonio Brown are the only 2 wide recievers in the NFL with at least 9 targets in each game this season. Keenan gets a prime matchup against the Raiders who are ranked 30th DVOA vs the pass. I expect the 9 targets to easily be there this week with getting in the end zone.

Deandre Hopkins ($8,100) – Hopkins gets a nice matchup against a weak Browns secondary this week. The browns are actually dead LAST in DVOA against WR1.  Hopkins leads the NFL in targets, and since Watson has taken over in week 2 he has had 37% of the passing market share go to him. With Will Fuller back, I actually like Hopkins even more with some attention required to be on Fuller as a deep threat. Hopkins will be a popular option this week, so know that as you put him in your lineups.

Also consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Randall Cobb ($5,900) – We saw Jordy Nelson exit the game with an apparent hamstring injury.  If Nelson is unable to play, Davante Adams will be on #rhodesclosed. The Vikings are most vulnerable through the air in the middle which is right where Cobb will be.  With a price drop of $800, this is a time to jump back on the Cobb train.  Lot of people will be caught chasing Adams’ 2 touchdown game against the Cowboys.  The pivot to Cobb makes sense as Rodgers likely won’t have a lot of time to throw and will have to throw a lot of quick passes.

DeSean Jackson ($5,800) – Patrick Peterson will be on Mike Evans.  Do I need to say anything more?  Jokes aside, we have seen what happens when Peterson shadows an opposing WR.  The targets get funneled elsewhere and WR2/3 can put up solid scores.  Aldrick Robinson saw 12 targets funneled his way when Garcon was shadowed and  Agholor/Smith put up monster games last week.  The upside for Jackson is enormous, especially at this price.

Golden Tate ($6,800) – The Lions and Saints have the highest vegas total of the week and I want some pieces of this game. Stafford looks to have an ankle and hamstring injury which we will have to monitor as the week goes on. Tate is in the perfect spot this week against a weak Saints secondary and can exploit them out of the slot moving around the line of scrimmage. I think he will come in at lower ownership due to his lack luster start to the season, but this is the perfect get right spot.

Adam Thielen ($6,000) – Thielen is becoming one of my favorite plays of the week. Diggs has not been participating much in practice this week with a groin injury so this favors Thielen big time. Last year, Thielen had 12 catches for 202 yards with 2 TDs. This Packers secondary is one to attack, and Thielen offers one of the safest floors with major upside this week.

Also consider:  Chris Hogan, Larry Fitzgerald, Danny Amendola, Davante Adams (If Nelson plays as he would most likely avoid Rhodes)

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Martavis Bryant ($4700) – Martavis has almost had a few monster games but either pass interference or misthrows by Big Ben have prohibited that from happening. Martavis gets a matchup with the Chiefs and will be lined up with Terrance Mitchell who I watched at Oregon for many years, and his size is going to pose trouble in this matchup. Clearly Todd Haley is keen on throwing the ball 50 times a game, and Martavis at this price is a no brainer for me with his potential. **Steelers have made comments about limiting Bryant in this game, this bumps up JuJu Smith for me and I am decreasing my shares of Bryant drastically***

Amari Cooper ($5,000) – As of Friday, it sounds like Derek Carr will play this game and if that is the case I can get on board with Amari. He has had everything go against him early this season between uncharacteristic drops, tough defensive matchups and the injury to Carr – I think this is his get right week. Cooper has still seen more targets than Crabtree this year, it has just been unproductive. Cooper will be able to avoid Casey Hayward for at least 50% of the snaps I am predicting since Cooper and Crabtree lineup on both sides. I don’t think there is anythign to worry about with a Hayward shadow.

Also Consider: JuJu Smith-Schuster

Late Week Additions:

Tight Ends

Martellus Bennett ($3500) – I really like the spot the Packers passing offense is in, with the exception of whoever gets Rhodes. Vikings give up yards outside of Rhodes and especially middle of the field to TE and slot WR. MIN ranks 25th in DVOA against the TE showing the are vulnerable to the position.  Bennett has seen a healthy number of targets this year with Rodgers, and is getting red zone looks but has yet to convert on a TD. If Jordy is out this really intrigues me as a play this week.

Ryan Griffin ($4000) – Griffin has seen 15 targets in his last 3 games which is nothing eye opening by any means but it is the matchup here that intrigues me. The Texans play the Browns and are giving up the most fantasy points to tight ends. Griffin is an athletic tight end with upside, lets see how he takes advantage of the Browns porous defense.

George Kittle ($3,400) – I feel like I am chasing points a bit in this writeup.  However, we missed last week on a prime matchup against the Colts who were ranked 29th in DVOA against the TE.  Now he gets a matchup against WAS who is ranked even worse at 31st DVOA against the TE.  At this price he doesn’t need to do much to pay off and showed last week he has the athleticism to hit his ceiling.

Cameron Brate ($3900) – Brate is currently seeing the most red zone targets on the Bucs this year. This week, Mike Evans will be shadowed by Patrick Peterson and this is going to open opportunities for DJAX and Brate. Arizona ranks 15th in DVOA vs TE.

Also consider: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Kyle Rudolph

Late Week Additions: Kyle Miller

Defense

Here are our favorite Defenses in play this weekend:

Ravens ($3,700)

Jaguars ($3,600)

Chiefs ($3,200)

 


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