NFL Week 7 Player Target Report

QUARTERBACKS

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Dak Prescott ($7,300) – Dak is quietly having a strong year.  The Cowboys have a nice matchup coming off of their bye week.  The 49ers ranked 24th DVOA against the pass through 5 weeks and have 3 of the worst graded cornerbacks in the league.  There is going to be points to scored and quite a few of those points will run through Dak either through the air or with his legs.  Love the pairing of Dak and Dez as the 49ers rank 23rd vs WR1 and first against the TE.

Also consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Marcus Mariota ($6,900) – We haven’t seen MariGOATa play in a while as he has been out with a hamstring injury.  Mariota had 17 points at half in his last outing versus the Texans.  We have seen what QBs have done to this 26th DVOA against the pass defense and I will continue to target QBs against Cleveland.  As long as he escapes this week without injury, Mariota has an excellent ceiling and floor as he can utilize his legs against one of the highest blitzing teams in the league.

Russell Wilson ($6,400) – We are getting a price reduction on Russ who is actually priced lower than Carson Palmer. The Seahawks face off against the Giants who rank 20th DVOA vs the pass. Wilson has all of his weapons healthy that he will be targeting through the air. Doug Baldwin had a week to get over his groin injury, and Jimmy Graham has also had a productive season. I think the floor is high for Russ this week.

Also Consider:  Carson Palmer

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Josh McCown ($5,200) – The cupcake matchups continue.  McCown is quietly stringing together some decent games for his salaries.  MIA is a pass funnel defense which should force McCown to air it out.  Miami ranks 2nd DVOA against the rush and 21st DVOA against the pass.  For cash games if McCown reaches the 15 point mark he has done his job.  He has hit this mark 4/6 times with the 2 misses coming against solid D in Buf and JAX.  I will go right back to the well in this favorable matchup.

TyGOD Taylor ($5,100) – The Bills have now lost Jordan Matthews and Charles Clay for receiving weapons but I really like stacking TyGOD with Shady in this situation against the Bucs. Taylor is priced all the down to $5,100 but gets a great matchup against a Bucs defense that has given up yards and points this season. The Bucs rank 30th pass DVOA and 22nd DVOA to pass catching RB’s. This game is being played in BUF so that will only help the Bills, and they should be playing catch up. I also like stacking Tyrod, Shady and bringing it back with Mike Evans.

Brett Hundley ($5100) – Hundley couldn’t have stepped into a more difficult spot than what he had to endure against the Vikings last week. This week he faces the Saints and will get a full week to prepare as the starting QB and get those reps in with the first teamers. As a Ducks fan I watched alot of Hundley at UCLA and he was the clear #2 QB in the Pac12 during his time (behind Mariota of course). Hundley averaged 1 rushing TD per game in college and his ability to move out of the pocket elevates his floor. I like Hundley in both cash and GPP formats.

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions: 

Running Backs

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Leveon Bell ($9,100) – He is the most expensive back on DK but he comes with the most usage out of any RB. Leveon can create his own and this week against the Bengals he is my Steelers must own. He is coming off a huge week racking up 31.1 DK points against the Chiefs. I really like stacking Bell with AJ Green in this game.

LeSean McCoy ($7,400) – Coming off the bye week was not pretty for teams in Week 6.  However, I see this as a time to heal the injuries.  Shady hasn’t notched a TD yet and I see positive regression coming against a Defense ranked 22nd against pass catching RBs.  If 2017 Adrian Peterson can run through the TB defense behind that O-line, there is no reason Shady can’t as the offense flows through him.  He is my favorite play in this range.

Also Consider: Zeke Elliot, Todd Gurley

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Mark Ingram ($6,700) – We were all over him last week and will be on him again this week as game script should be in the Saints favor against a Rodger-less Packers team.  Ingram had 5 carries inside the 10 against the Lions as opposed to Kamara’s 0.  With AP out the door, the early down work and playing with the lead favors Ingram.  With the Saints being favored by 5.5, game script should lead to another high usage situation for Ingram against the 18th ranked DVOA against the rush defense.  Even with the price increase, we are going back to the well.

Jay Ajayi ($6,200) – Jay Ajayi looked solid last week and gets a beautiful matchup at home against a team allowing 138 rushing yards.  Even playing from behind for most of the game last week, Ajayi saw 26 touches resulting in back to back 25+ touch games.  Although his lack of usage in the passing game is worrisome in a PPR format, I could see Ajayi going for 100+ yards and a score.  At $6,200, he is setup to hit 3x. **Pouncey may miss this game, I am not as excited to play Ajayi if Pouncey is out**.

Carlos Hyde ($5,900) – We got confirmation last week the Niners arent looking to trade Hyde. He punched in 2 TDs last week at the goal line but what I liked to see is his 6 targets. Beathard was looking his way out of the backfield and the matchup this week against Dallas is prime. Dallas ranks DEAD LAST in DVOA to RBs as well as pass catching RBs.

Derrick Henry ($5,500) – We got the news on Thursday that Demarco has not practiced once again. It is appearing that Demarco may not play Sunday against the Browns and if so, fire up Henry. Henry put on a show against the Colts on Monday night amassing 131 yards off 19 carries and a TD. The Titans have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, so even though the Browns have a decent D Line, I think it is too much to handle for 4 quarters.

Also Consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Javorius Allen ($5,300) – The Ravens get a tough matchup facing the Vikings, but I think game script will put Buck Allen in this game over Alex Collins. The Vikings are currently 5 point favorites, and Allen has shown he is the only back suitable for pass catching situations which elevates his floor on DraftKings. He should come in sub 3% ownership.

Chris Ivory ($4,800) – This could be one of my favorite plays of the week if we get news Fournette is out or limited. The Jags have a bye week coming up next, so it would make the most sense to rest Fournette. Ivory saw 9 targets last week and he runs the ball with vengeance. With a healthy Chris Ivory in a perfect matchup vs the Colts ranked 31st DVOA vs pass catching backs, load up your shares. But remember to check Fournette’s status Sunday morning.

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions:  

Wide Receivers

The High-End Model ($7000+)

AJ Green ($8,300) – AJG is one of my favorite plays of the week. He has much better games on the road throughout his career and has a history of torching the Steelers at Heinz. In the last 5 games vs the Steelers he has averaged 12 targets and 118 yards per game. The Bengals are still without Eiffert so AJG is the only option for Dalton.

Dez Bryant ($7,800) – Dez gets another solid matchup after his brutal schedule to start the year.  The 49ers are very susceptible through the air.  I love the Dak to Dez stack as there should be another touchdown looming and possibly more as long as Beasley doesn’t vulture any. Dez has 9 Redzone targets through 5 weeks, good for 4th in the league with one less game.  Dez gets a matchup against these woeful 49ers cornerbacks and should be able to FEAST.

Also consider: Michael Thomas

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Jordy Nelson ($6,800) – Nelson’s price is going Down, Down, Down and the flames went higher as Rodgers was lost for the year.  However, the saints have gotten torched from the Slot against Thielen, Hogan, and Tate.  We have seen Nelson move around the formation so he should be able to avoid Lattimore who sticks to the right side.  Last week Nelson only ran out of the left side 30%) of the time so we should see Nelson in some favorable matchups against Vaccaro when he travels into the slot.

Doug Baldwin ($6,600) – Baldwin is coming off a bye week and the Seahawks will travel to New York to face off against the Giants. Baldwin is going to move all over in formations so he will be avoiding Janorice Jenkins majority of the game. Baldwin has had 2 quiet games against the Rams and Colts, so his ownership will be low. I think he and Russ are always in play regardless of game script right now since the coaching staff can’t seem to find a RB they will commit to.

Pierre Garcon ($5,800) – Per Graham Barfield (follow him on twitter if you don’t already), the 49ers run the 6th most plays.  Last week we saw Beathard replace Hoyer and it worked to Garcon’s advantage as all of his catches were from Beathard.  At $5,800 seeing 10+ targets a game playing the 28th DVOA ranked defense against the pass, I will have plenty of Garcon as this game could shoot out.

Demaryius Thomas ($5,800) – We will have to monitor DT injury status this week, but he was limping towards the end of the game on Sunday night. Manny Sanders is out so we know where the targets will be going. He could get Casey Hayward shadow but DT has size on him and passes will funnel his way with the loss of Sanders.

Rishard Matthews ($5,500) – Mariota is back and we have to fire up his favorite target. Matthews gets a golden matchup going up against the Cleveland Browns this week. He gets a price hike due to this matchup but that will help suppress ownership. Matthews has averaged 8 targets per game this year with Mariota under center. The big play potential is there against the 26th ranked DVOA defense against the pass. **If Delanie misses the game this really has me increasing shares of Rishard and Decker**

Also consider: Jarvis Landry (if Parker is out), Devin Funchess

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Marqise Lee ($4300) – Marqise Lee got banged up against the Steelers and saw limited snaps but looked healthy last week seeing 10 targets for 83 yards against the Rams. The Jags even used him in the run game adding 17 yards and he is taking advantage of Allen Robinson’s absence over Hurns. This week the Jags match up against the weak Colts secondary ranking 31st in pass DVOA. **As of Saturday Lee is questionable to play Sunday**

Zay Jones ($3,600) – With JMatt and Charles Clay sidelined, Tyrod will have to throw to someone coming off their bye week. Zay has seen 11 targets the last two weeks, and he was an elite WR in college. In his final season at East Carolina he caught 158 passes for 1,746 yards, just let that sink in. The ceiling is there for him and it looks like the chemistry is slowly coming together with Tyrod. He could torch this Bucs secondary if given the opportunity. This is a deep GPP play and will be very low owned.

Also Consider: Eric Decker

Late Week Additions:

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham ($4,900) – The Giants rank 20th against the TE in DVOA. Jimmy G has been solid so far this season with 3 of his 5 games seeing double digit fantasy points scored. He is priced at an absurd $4900 and we all know his ceiling. I wouldn’t recommend stacking both Baldwin and Jimmy with Russ in GPPs since I fear the Giant’s wont hang around to make this game going back and forth. But I could see a path where Graham gets 2 TDs with the amount of opportunities the Seahawks should have.

Cameron Brate ($4,700) – Last week we saw the Harvard to Harvard connection when Fitzpatrick entered the game for Jameis. Brate saw 8 targets and now has a TD in each game this season. He leads the Bucs in red zone targets, and for that reason I am comfortable continuing to play Brate. He has multi TD upside and if Jameis is out, we all know he and Fitz have a connection.

Kyle Rudolph ($3,800) – As long as Diggs is hampered by injury, Rudolph’s presence in this offense substantially increases.  Rudolph has seen 9 targets the last 2 games with Diggs hurt and now gets to go up against a team that ranks dead last againse the TE position.  With a strong secondary the targets get funneled inside which will help boost the case for Rudolph.  At $3,800 seeing 9 targets a game, Rudolph makes for a strong play this week.

George Kittle ($3,600) – Kittle is slowly beginning to be recognized in DFS but something alot of people are not aware is that he and CJ Betheard played 4 years together at Iowa. Last week Hoyer was benched for Betheard against the Redskins, 6 of Kittle’s 8 targets came from Betheard. The Niners face up against the Cowboys who are ranked 29th DVOA vs Tight Ends. Kittle has seen 17 targets the last 2 weeks so the Niners are looking to get the ball his way.

Also consider: Evan Engram

Late Week Additions: Jonu Smith

Defense

Here are our favorite Defenses in play this weekend:

Vikings ($3,200)

Jaguars ($3,700)

Panthers ($3,600)

Steelers ($3,200)

Saints ($3,000)

Chargers ($2,400)


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