Week 8 Player Targets

QUARTERBACKS

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Dak Prescott ($7,300) – Dak is coming off back to back games scoring at least 30 points on DraftKings. Dak faces a banged up Redskins defense that ranks 12th DVOA vs pass but Josh Norman may be missing another game. If he does end up missing I love the spot here for Dak & Dez, as that helps raise the ceiling for Dak. Zeke has also been a threat out of the backfield and racks up receiving yards with his volume. **Check weather updates for this game on the home page**

Carson Wentz ($7,200) – Wentz is coming off a strong performance Monday night vs the Redskins. This week he gets an awesome matchup vs the Niners at home. The Niners rank 27th vs the pass and while the Eagles have not committed to running the ball I think there are plenty of opportunities here for Wentz. I like pairing Wentz with either Ertz, Alshon or Ahgohlor in the slot. **Check weather updates for this game on the home page**

Also consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Russell Wilson ($6,500) – The Seahawks have not committed to the run game this year and this help elevate Wilson’s floor. The Seahawks are at home this week against the Texans, where I don’t expect a complete blow out here. I think Deshaun Watson will keep the Texans in this game for the majority, and I love the Russ to Baldwin or Jimmy Graham stack. Texans rank 5th in DVOA vs the pass but this defense is much different looking without Watt and Mercilus. Baldwin has a prime matchup in the slot this week.

Kirk Cousins ($6,400) – Similar to prior years, Kirk Cousins gets better as the season goes on.  This week he gets a favorable matchup against a generous Cowboys defense ranked 28th DVOA against the pass.  With all of his weapons healthy and a Chris Thompson that can take any given checkdown to the house, this price is too good to pass up for Cousins. **Check weather updates for this game on the home page**

Phillip Rivers ($6,300) – Let’s not forget the Patriots allowed 6 straight QBs to throw for 300+ yards prior to facing a struggling Falcons offense.  This is a beautiful spot for Rivers to hit his ceiling against a very weak Patriots pass defense.  I will have plenty of exposure to the Chargers passing attack.

Tyrod Taylor ($5,900) – The Bills were able to move the ball against the Buccaneers.  I will go right back to the well on this smaller slate in another favorable matchup against a defense ranked 29th DVOA against the pass.  The Bills offense flows through Taylor and Shady.  In another potential shootout game at home, I expect Taylor to hit value once again at his lower price.

Also Consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

C.J. Beathard ($5,100) – If looking to pay down at QB, the only guy in this range that I would consider is Beathard.  The Eagles are currently allowing 273 yards per game through the air.  Part of this reason is game script.  The 49ers should be in a game script that requires Beathard to rack up the pass attempts.  Beathard also showed that he can take off and run.  I’m not sure the ceiling is there for GPP but a decent cash play for the savings and floor.

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions: 

Running Backs

The High-End Model ($7000+)

LeSean McCoy ($8,700) – Shady is back.  We were all over him last week at his lower price and he returns this week in another solid matchup.  As I mentioned above with Tyrod, this offense flows through these 2 players.  In another potential shootout at home, I will take the usage and upside in McCoy and look to find value elsewhere.  Oakland ranks 21st DVOA against the rush and 29th DVOA against receiving backs.

Mark Ingram ($7,400) – Another week AP is gone, another week I will play Ingram.  Seriously, a primary down back that can catch balls in a matchup against a 19th ranked defense against the rush.  As has been the case the last 2 weeks, the Saints should find themselves in a favorable game script for Ingram at home.  Even with his elevated price I will continue to roll Ingram out.

Also Consider: Zeke Elliot, Melvin Gordon (GPP)

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Jordan Howard ($6,800) – I get it, he isn’t much of a pass catching threat in a PPR format. However, Howard has been getting touches and has seen his snap count increase to 90% with Trubisky at the helm.  The Bears have shown a willingness to stick to the run and get a matchup against a 24th ranked DVOA defense against the rush.  At 20+ touches, Howard could hit the pay dirt and hit value.

Chris Thompson ($5,800) – The gadget man is seeing his snap count increase and outsnapped Kelley last week.  The Redskins actually might be realizing that Thompson is dangerous with the ball in his hands.  DAL is dead last DVOA against the rush.  They are also dead last DVOA against receiving backs.  With increased usage and snap count, this could be a monster week for Thompson.

Also Consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Jalen Richard ($4,300) / Deandre Washington ($4,100) – With Marshawn suspended for pushing an official last week and limited value for the main slate, we will have to monitor this running back situation to see who will be featured as the premiere back.  It was nearly a 50/50 split after Marshawn went out so I will be curious to see if this workload will continue.  If news comes out that one of these backs will take on a larger load, I will load up at this minimum price.

Dion Lewis ($4,600) – This is another GPP play, and if you expect the Patriots to control this game against the Chargers at home I think Dion Lewis is a great play. He is taking over the carries for the Pats as Gillislee’s role is becoming non existent. Lewis saw 13 carries for 76 yards against the Falcons last week. The Pats are tough to predict but I think his usage is trending in the right direction on an explosive offense.

Also Consider: Joe Mixon (GPP)

Late Week Additions:  

Wide Receivers

The High-End Model ($7000+)

AJ Green ($8,600) – AJG was a let down this past week in a division matchup with the Steelers. The Steelers pass rush just got to be too much for the Bengals front, Dalton had no time to throw. This week, AJ Green faces a weak Colts secondary who still has Vontae Davis but he’s not the same player we have seen in recent years. The Colts rank 31st against the pass and 20th vs WR1. Green is about the only options these days in Cinci.

Keenan Allen ($7,300) – This is one of my favorite plays of the week.  Allen has disappointed the last 2 weeks.  Last week he took on a very difficult Broncos pass D.  This week, however, Allen faces off against a very porous pass D in the Patriots.  The Patriots also rank 31st DVOA against WR#1.  People actually believe that the Pats D is good from a strong showing against a struggling Falcons offense.  I will continue to target offenses against the Patriots and am not scared off by one good week.  Let’s not forget the 300 yards given up through the air in each of the previous 6 weeks.

Also consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Doug Baldwin ($6,900) – That’s the Dougie we know.  A lot of folks are scared off targeting the Texans D.  However, Baldwin gets a beautiful matchup at home in the slot going against Kareem Jackson, PFF’s 82nd ranked CB (out of 111).  Seahawks have found a recipe that has worked and this trend should continue in another solid matchup.

Kelvin Benjamin ($6,400) – The price keeps going down and this is the matchup we pounce on.  Tampa Bay’s defense is just getting throttled by offenses.  I hope Benjamin’s price stays low throughout the week as this price is way too cheap going up against a defense ranked 30th Pass DVOA and 26th DVOA against WR1.  Back in Week 6 Benjamin saw 13 targets in a similar matchup against a bad Philly pass defense.  At this price for a potential 10+ targets, load up. **Check weather updates for this game on the home page**

Chris Hogan ($6,500)  – As of Thursday it looks like Amendola may not play, and last game Amendola was out, Hogan saw over 50% of his snaps from the slot. He will be avoiding the Chargers corners when in the slot and I really like the spot for him.

Also consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions: JuJu Smith

Tight Ends

Jordan Reed ($4,700) – We finally saw what Reed can do when healthy Monday night against the Eagles.  Reed gets a really nice matchup against a Dal defense ranking 29th DVOA against the TE.  At this suppressed price at near full health (or so we think), we need to play Reed before his price shoots up next week.

ASJ ($4,900) – I don’t think there is a week that goes by without getting ASJ in my lineups. He is becoming McCown’s favorite target and looks his way often in the red zone. The Falcons rank 19th DVOA vs tight ends. ASJ has seen 24 targets over his last 3 games, with a score in each.

Hunter Henry ($4,800) – Hunter Henry has seen his snap counts rise each week since week 4 and the Chargers are making him a focal point behind Keenan Allen. Henry gets a matchup vs the Patriots who rank 14th DVOA vs tight ends. The Chargers will most likely be playing from behind so there should be plenty of looks his way.

Jimmy Graham ($4,600) – Jimmy G could have had a HUGE week last week dropping 2 big passes that could have led to scores. The Seahawks face a depleted Texans defense at home, and he is just priced too cheap. Graham has averaged 8 targets over his last 4 games, with 2 touch downs. I like Graham in both cash and GPP.

Jack Doyle ($3,500) – Doyle is becoming Brissett’s favorite target and goes up against a Bengals D that ranks 22nd DVOA against the TE.  At this price averaging over 8 targets the last 3 games, I will take the value and pay up elsewhere.

Also consider:

Late Week Additions: 

Defense

Here are our favorite Defenses in play this weekend:

Eagles ($3,800) – I think the Eagles will put pressure on Beathard and force multiple turnovers. We are looking for the Eagles to turn that into six points.

Bengals ($3,600) – The Colts are giving up the most sacks with Brissett under center in the league. Always like home favorite defenses.

Saints ($3,400) – Stafford is known to give the ball up, if Tate doesn’t play I really like the Saints chances at home.

Seahawks ($3,200) – Seahawks at home vs a rookie QB, does it get any better than that?

 

 


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