Week 9 Player Targets

QUARTERBACKS

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Drew Brees ($7,000) – This is the matchup we have been waiting for to use Drew Brees. The saints get the 32nd ranked defense in DVOA at the Coors Field of NFL DFS. The Saints have become more run heavy in 2017, but Brees price tag has reflected that. Brees is coming off a tough matchup against the Bears last week and gets this perfect matchup against the Bucs. For a conventional stack I like pairing Brees with Thomas, but for a more contrarion stack you can look at Alvin Kamara or Ted Ginn.

Russell Wilson ($7,300) – The Seahawks have absolutely zero run game.  The addition of Duane Brown should also help the protection of Wilson and give him some more time in the pocket.  We have seen years past when Wilson gets on a hot streak that he is pretty much matchup proof.  With a chance at 40 passing attempts and 4-5 rushes, I love going back to Wilson this week.

Also consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Dak Prescott ($6,700) – Coming off of a poor week playing in constant rain, Dak gets a reduced price and better matchup against the Chiefs Defense ranked 19th DVOA against the pass.  Before the game against the Redskins we knew that the Cowboys were going to deploy a run heavy approach with the rain.  Now they get a matchup indoors against a Berry-less defense.  I love going to a Prescott – Bryant stack at lower price and ownership than weeks past.

Matt Ryan ($6,200) – This is a GPP play only in a tougher matchup against the Panthers who rank 15th DVOA vs the pass. One of these weeks Ryan is going to go off and he is going to be under owned with his lackluster recent performances. I like pairing Ryan with Sanu or Julio.

Also Consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Jared Goff ($5,500) – This is another GPP play with Goff going up against the Giants who will be without Janorice Jenkins on a one game suspension. The Giants rank 21st DVOA vs the pass and will be depleted without Jenkins. I love the spot here for Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods, or even a Cooper Kupp stack since Goff seems to zone in on him at times.

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions: Alex Smith

Running Backs

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Todd Gurley II ($8,100) – The NYG were supposed to be good against the run coming into the season.  However, this has not been the case as they have been shredded by backs.  They rank 24th DVOA against the rush and 27th DVOA against receiving backs.  Coming off of a bye week, I like targeting Gurley after resting for this week.  Even though they are traveling cross country, they should be able to limit any woes as they aren’t going off of a short week.

Kareem Hunt ($8,600) – Kareem Hunt has not scored a TD since week 3 and the Chiefs have had some tough recent matchups. I think this week he gets back in the end zone against the 31st ranked defense against the run in the Cowboys. Hunt is game script proof regardless of how this game ends up. He is the guy in KC and he might be lower owned this week due to his decline in recent performance.

Also Consider: Leonard Fournette ($8,400), Zeke Elliot

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Christian McCaffery ($6,500) – CMC has been seeing over 70% of the snap counts for the Panthers the last 3 weeks. This week he gets a juicy matchup against the Falcons who rank 30th DVOA vs the run and more importantly ranked 28th vs pass catching backs. McCaffery is on pace for just under 100 receptions his rookie year, which is insane for a running back. CMC has a safe floor with a high ceiling.

Alvin Kamara ($6,300) – This is one of my favorite plays of the week. The Saints play the Bucs who rank 21st against receiving backs and I think Kamara gets a season high in touches this week. Last week, Ingram fumbled twice and Sean Payton has been known to put him in the dog house the following week. Kamara was getting red zone snaps last week, and his PPR scoring ability elevates his ceiling for GPPs.

Lamar Miller ($6,200) – Miller is coming off a big game vs the Seahawks posting 22.3 Draftkings points, having both a receiving and rushing TD. This week the Texans face off against the lowly Colts defense who ranks 21st DVOA vs the rush and dead last against pass catching backs. I expect the Texans to get an early lead here, and then they feed Miller. I will also point out that Dontae Foreman did not see one carry last week either.

Chris Thompson ($6,100) – The Redskins may finally be utilizing Thompson the way that they should.   Thompson saw 9 targets last week against the Cowboys and saw a season high in snaps at 47.  With his usage in the passing game, I like Thompson to hit his floor and push for 15+ points with his explosive run after catch.

Doug Martin ($5,800) – Is this the Hamster’s breakout week?  The Saints rank 29th DVOA against the rush and have allowed 100+ yards rushing to every opponent besides the Lions and Dolphins (not exactly the top rushing offenses).  Aaron Jones and Howard clipped the 100 mark the last 2 weeks and I like the trend to continue.  Lattimore and Crawley have done a good job shutting down the perimeter so I hope to establish the run game to open up the passing attack.

Also Consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions:  

Wide Receivers

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Michael Thomas ($7,200) – Michael Thomas is slowing dropping in salary and the Saints are back at home again this week facing the Buccaneers. As I mentioned about with Brees, Tampa ranks 32nd DVOA vs the pass. MT has yet to have a big game and this could be the eruption spot in a high scoring affair.

Also consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Doug Baldwin ($6,900) – Baldwin had a relativley quiet game compared to Lockett and Richardson last game and that is just fine with me. Baldwin still saw 10 targets in that game, he just couldn’t get in the endzone. Alot of people will go chasing Paul Richardson’s big game, but he just is not seeing the targets that Baldwin gets. This week the Seahawks play the Redskins and there is a chance Josh Norman comes back. However, even if he plays, Baldwin will be able to avoid him in the slot.

Dez Bryant ($6,400) – Dez is priced down to $6,400 and gets a good matchup vs the Chiefs secondary. When Dez is lined up left against Terrance Mitchell he is going to feast, who is one of the worst graded cornerbacks on PFF. I think this game stays close throughout and we get 4 quarter production out of Dez Bryant.

Also consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Desean Jackson ($5,500) – Last week I really wanted to load up on DJax but the high winds in Tampa kept me off him. This week he gets matched up against the Saints in what should be a shoot out. The Saints DVOA rank is solid against the pass, but DJax will be avoiding Lattimore.  Crawley has actually played well this year but I’ll take my chances on a couple deep bombs. I like stacking Winston with DJax this week.

TY Hilton ($4,900) – It feels strange to be writing up TY Hilton as a value pick this week at $4,900. This is a crazy discount to get for an explosive player like TY and he’s back indoors on the fast track. Houston ranks 15th DVOA vs WR1 and the Colts will be playing from behind in this game. There should be plenty of shots being taken at TY.

Robert Woods ($4,300) – Sammy Watkins will continue to get the attention on the Rams with Janorice Jenkins and the Giants this week. Robert Woods has quietly seen 7, 7 and 8 targets the past 3 weeks. I like Woods as a GPP play this week and would expect close to double digit targets in this game.  * EDIT*  Janorice Jenkins has been suspended indefinitely.  This opens up both Woods AND Watkins as solid plays in their price range.

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions: Demarcus Robinson (paired with Kelce + Smith), Curtis Samuel

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz ($6,900) – I feel like the general roster construction each week is to pay down at QB and TE.  You can be contrarian simply by paying up at TE.  Ertz is in a smash spot up against a Den defense that funnels targets through the middle.  They got absolutely crushed by Kelce last night.  Den ranks dead last DVOA against the TE.  Ertz’ targets have normalized to about 5 targets the last 5 weeks but continues to hit the pay dirt.

Travis Kelce ($6,700) – The Chiefs play the Cowboys who rank 30th DVOA vs Tight Ends. Kelce has stayed healthy this season and as a result has been producing. He has 3 100 yard games this season and I think he has the highest ceiling for a Tight End on the main slate.

Jimmy Graham ($5,000) – I feel repetitive having Jimmy Graham on here what seems like every week but his price just will not go up. Graham caught 2 TD’s last week against Houston and should have had 2 TD’s the week before as well. This week the Seahawks face the Redskins who rank 26th DVOA vs the pass. Russ and Jimmy have a connection you just cannot ignore.

Ryan Griffin ($3,000) – The Colts rank 24th DVOA vs Tight Ends this year. Griffin did not see much in targets against the Seahawks last week but he saw 17 total targets in the previous 3 weeks. I think Griffin is a solid leverage play from Hopkins and Fuller that is not priced up like the other Texans. Griffin is a GPP play only for me.

Also consider:

Late Week Additions: Vernon Davis, Jack Doyle, Evan Engram

Defense

Here are our favorite Defenses in play this weekend:

Eagles ($3,200)

Jaguars ($3,800)

Rams ($3,100)

 


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