Week 10 Player Targets

QUARTERBACKS

The High-End Model ($6800+)

Matt Stafford ($6,800) – The Browns are a true pass funnel defense as they rank 2nd DVOA against the rush and 26th DVOA against the pass.  The Browns look like they will be getting McCourty back this week but that doesn’t scare me off the Lions passing attack. Without a solid run game, the Lions are going to have to take to the air. Stafford has thrown for 300+ yards the last 3 games and this could definitely continue again this week.  The Stafford to Jones is probably my favorite stack and is very affordable.

Also consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6700)

Ben Roethlisberger ($6,600) – I haven’t rostered Big Ben once this year.  However, this is a matchup that we will want to exploit, especially on quick turf.  This is a Colts Defense that ranks 30th DVOA against the pass and slightly better 19th DVOA against the rush.  They are just a plain bad defense.  This will be the Steelers coming out party and I don’t mind a full-on Killer Bee stack that we had seen in years past.

Matt Ryan ($6,500) – Matty Ice has not had a big game for his standards yet this season. Steve Sarkesian has been part of that issue, but also the Falcons have missed out on opportunities (like Julio dropping a wide open TD last week). This week the Falcons face the Cowboys who are ranked 19th against the pass. You get a discount with Ryan this week in a great matchup. We need to monitor Julio’s leg on the injury report this week.

Josh McCown ($6,100) – Who would’ve thought that McCown would ever be priced higher than Kirk Cousins?  However, we have been targeting offenses against TB all year and will continue doing so this week.  TB is ranked 31st DVOA against the pass.  McCown has quietly posted some solid scores the past 4 weeks averaging over 20 fantasy points per game over that stretch.  This matchup presents another opportunity for McCown to go north of 20 points.

Also Consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Eli Manning ($5,100) – The Giants play against the 49ers who rank 27th DVOA vs the pass. Eli has had two things going against him lately – tough matchups and injuries to the WRs. Sterling Shepard is back and healthy, and Eli has had to face the Seahawks, Broncos and Chargers in the previous 3 matchups. I think Eli has a good game, don’t expect 300 yards and 3 TDs without OBJ, but I think he can easily hit value at $5,100. *Full Discolusre – Eli will be my highest owned QB in GPP’s this week*

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Running Backs

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Leveon Bell ($9,800) – I am sure someone will have to comment I am only picking Bell because he is a “safe” play and I wouldn’t argue with that statement. However, Bell has a crazy high price this week but still has monster upside playing against the Colts who rank 19th DVOA vs the run and dead last vs pass catching backs. I expect the Steelers to get an early lead in this game, and that COULD equate to almost 40 touches for Leveon this week.

Leonard Fournette ($8,400) – Fournette missed a few appointments and he gets sit for a game.  However, Fournette should be fresh and ready to roll against a Chargers defense ranked 26th DVOA against the rush.  I love this matchup and getting a healthy Fournette to pound the rock not to mention playing at home in hopefully a favorable game script.

Lesean McCoy ($8,300) – Shady is coming off a rough week 9 performance but this will keep his ownership lower this week. This is a great GPP play and we know the usage that comes with Shady in a good matchup against the Saints who rank 28th DVOA vs the run. I still like pairing McCoy with Tyrod in GPP’s.

Also Consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Jerick McKinnon ($6,600) – I may be a bit biased as a homegrown Vikings fan but there is upside with McKinnon.  The Redskins rank 18th DVOA against receiving backs and McKinnon has seen 6+ targets in 3 of the last 4 games.  This should continue again this week as McKinnon is explosive when catching balls out of the backfield.

Carlos Hyde ($6,300) – When you have a brutal offensive line, you see plenty of checkdown passes.  This is what we have seen in Hyde as he has been Beathard’s favorite target.  With Garcon out for the year, there is one less mouth for this offense to run through.  Hyde hasn’t been that effective on the ground but more than makes up for it with his usage through the air.  Hyde has averaged over 9 targets the last 3 games and gets a solid matchup against a bad Giants defense ranked 24th DVOA against the rush.

Jordan Howard ($6,100) – Howard is becoming the bell cow in Chicago behind a very strong offensive line. The Bears play in a divisional matchup this week against the Packers who rank 21st DVOA vs the run. We have seen the Bears rely less on Cohen lately. The Bears are coming off a bye week to refresh his legs and we know the Bears are not going to throw, so Howard could be in for a big workload this week. This is one of my favorite plays of the week and pairing with Bears D.

Also Consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Orleans Darkwa ($4,400) – With the tight pricing on DK, we are forced into plays we wouldn’t normally choose.  However, SF has just been absolutely gashed on the ground.  The old stove AP posted 160 on them last week.  Both of these teams seasons are toast but doesn’t mean there are plays we can choose from.  Darkwa has posted respectable games the last 4 weeks and should see 15+ carries at only $4,500.  Many may not agree with this pick but I will take any running back getting 15 carries against this 49ers rush defense.

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions:  Bilal Powell

Wide Receivers

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Antonio Brown ($9,300) – This one is simple: the Colts rank last in the NFL giving up big plays to opposing WR’s, and we know that is what AB thrives off. He is priced up in a tier of his own which may keep ownership manageable, but I really think Big Ben gets on track this week in this matchup and he is a great stack with AB.

Julio Jones ($8,000) – The Falcons are finally starting to utilize Julio. Had he not dropped a wide open 39 yard touchdown last week, his box score would have been impressive. The Falcons season is starting to wane and we could see them force Jones targets to get the offense going.  Dal ranks 30th dvoa against the pass and I don’t see anybody in this secondary that will be able to handle Julio.  I will go right back to the well this week.  *Julio has a leg injury so we will monitor his status throughout the week.  If he is limited, this bumps up Sanu into play*

AJ Green ($7,700) – AJ Green got chippy with Jalen Ramsey after just 4 drives for the Bengals, which led to both players being ejected. He was held to 1 catch for 6 yards in his brief appearance in last weeks game which was a very difficult matchup. This week he gets the Titans secondary that ranks 22 DVOA vs the pass. AJG will be one of my highest owned plays of the week in GPP’s this week, I even like stacking him with Dalton and Kroft.

Also consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Golden Tate ($6,800) – The Lions are finally getting the ball into their best player’s hands. Tate has averaged 8 targets the last 4 weeks and this should continue in the funnel defense mentioned above.  I love pairing Tate with Stafford and possibly even stacking both Jones and Tate with Stafford as a very low owned GPP stack as we know where the targets are going.

Marvin Jones ($6,200) – There are some beautiful matchups this week, and this is one of them.  Jones has seen over 10 targets the last 2 games and gets a matchup against a defense that ranks dead last DVOA against the pass.  Stafford has redeveloped the connection with Jones and should be able to replicate in a great matchup. The Lions are about to kickoff tonight vs the Packers on MNF, and I expect he will have a great showing against the Packers.

JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,600) – This brings me back to College DFS a couple years ago as we rostered JuJu at USC. His coming out party came 2 weeks ago against Detroit when the game wasn’t on the main slate (although I had heavy exposure to him on FanDuel).  I am hoping he gets overlooked but that just may be hopeful.  JuJu gets a beautiful matchup and should see plenty of opportunities on the fast track against this Colts Defense.

Also consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Sterling Shepard ($5,500) – Shepard gets mentioned simply because Eli has nobody to throw the ball to in a good matchup against a very beatable 49ers defense.  Shepard saw 9 targets in his first game back against a tough Rams defense.  He should see the same target count, if not more, in a better matchup. Shepard offers us some nice value as a WR1 for the Giants and one of my favorite value plays of the week.

Robby Anderson ($5,200) – Robby Anderson has been averaging 15.6 DK points over his last 4 weeks and seeing a healthy amount of targets from McCown. The Jets have been better than expected this year and McCown is a big part of the success. This week the Jets face the Bucs who rank 31st against the pass. Robby is a deep threat and I think he makes for a great GPP play with McCown.

Chris Godwin ($3,000) – Godwin is going to step right in Mike Evans role and take his snaps this week against the Jets. I think Godwin will actually see more snaps than Humphries because he will always be in the 2 WR sets, where as Humphries and DJax can split those. Godwin will be lower owned in GPP’s with more upside than Humphries, just remember this is a GPP play only.

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions: Adam Thielen, Adam Humphries, Chris Godwin (see above)

Tight Ends

Evan Engram ($6,200) – Engram was one of my favorite players to come out of the draft. He ran a 4.42 40 yard at the combine which puts him right in between AJ Green and Julio Jones. That is insane. I think Engram has the highest ceiling for yards out of any tight end each week with his ability to outrun coverage. The only thing that holds Engram back is Eli, but against the Niners this week he should be able to put up some nice fantasy numbers.

Delanie Walker ($5,000) – Walker was able to play through his bone bruise last week.  Walker gets a matchup against a 26th DVOA ranked defense against tight ends. With limited options at tight end this week, Walker stands out as one of my favorites at a nice price. Walker has averaged almost 7 targets a game this year and can do some damage through the air when healthy.  *Need to monitor his health this week as his ankle limited his snaps last week*

Cameron Brate ($4,100) – We got news today that both Jameis Winston and Mike Evans will not be playing this week against the Jets. This puts Ryan Fitzpatrick in and we go back to the Harvard connection with he and Brate. The Jets do rank well against the TE position, but with the Bucs having 2 TE that can catch the ball I think it negates the matchup. I am only using Brate in GPP’s since he is splitting time with OJ Howard, but you have to love the narrative and usage opening up with no Evans.

Also consider:

Late Week Additions: Garrett Celek

Defense

Here are our favorite Defenses in play this weekend:

Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,900)

Detroit Lions ($3,800)

Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,700)

Chicago Bears ($3,000)

 


Leave a Reply