Week 11 Player Targets

QUARTERBACKS

The High-End Model ($6800+)

Tom Brady ($7,400) – Brady is the most expensive QB on the DK main slate but QB salaries are once again priced down this week relative to other positions. Brady shredded the Bronco’s defense at Mile Hile last week throwing for 3 TD’s. This week the Pats head to Mexico City to take on the Raiders who rank 32nd DVOA vs the pass. I think this is a prime matchup to use Brady as the Raiders should be able to keep this game with a few possessions all game.

Drew Brees ($6,800) – Brees is back at home and has only thrown for 300+ yards twice this season. A big reason is the high level the defense is playing and the improved run game this year. However, there will be a week where one or both of those things falter at some point. The Redskins rank 11th DVOA vs the pass but I think the more important thing to consider is that Kirk Cousins could keep this game close and force Brees to throw for 40+ attempts, something he has only done twice this season.

Also consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6700)

Derek Carr ($6,400) – The Raiders face off against the Patriots in Mexico City this week that is played at 7,000 feet elevation. The Patriots are currently 5.5 point favorites with no vegas total out yet. The Patriots rank 29th DVOA vs the pass and Derek Carr should have plenty of opportunities to throw playing from behind. Carr is coming off 3 solid games, passing for 300, 313, 417 yards respectively. I think he could easily throw for 50+ pass attempts.

Kirk Cousins ($6,100) – Cousins and company head into the Mercedes Dome in New Orleans to take on a Saints defense that has not been tested as of late. They have faced Hundley, Trubisky, Fitzpatrick and Tyrod the last 4 weeks. Cousins is finally getting chemistry back with Crowder and we will have to see if Jordan Reed is healthy and ready to go this week. With Rob Kelley sidelined for a while, I really like stacking Kirk with Thompson in GPP’s.

Eli Manning ($5,700) – I was overweight on Eli last week against the Niners and he exceeded his value passing for 273 yards and 2 TDs. This week the Giants are back at home and face a below average Chiefs secondary that rank 20th DVOA vs the pass. Eli has established a connection with Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram. Both have big upside in tourneys when stacking with Eli and bringing it back with a big play guy in TyFreak Hill or Kareem Hunt.

Also Consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,300) – Last week I was going back and forth on rostering Fitzpatrick but I had minimal exposure due to the Mike Evans suspension. I will also note I tweeted out last Sunday AM winds were up in Tampa and I reduced shares of that game due to the winds as well. This week the Bucs get Evans back and I will be rostering Fitzmagic in GPP’s. The Bucs play the Dolphins who rank 30th DVOA against the pass and I think Fitzmagic force feeds Mike Evans since there is no one with the ability to cover him. And we just saw what Cam Newton did on Monday night against the Dolphins, he dropped almost 40 Draftkings points.

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Running Backs

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Mark Ingram ($8,100) – I always try to look at next weeks matchups just before kickoff on Sunday so I can keep an eye on guys I like in the upcoming week. Mark Ingram was one guy that stood out in the matchup upcoming, and he of course goes off in week 10 for 131 yards and 3 TDs. As a result Ingram will now be popular this week as the Saints match up against the Redskins and they are starting to become reliant on running the ball. Ingram is seeing heavy red zone usage and the Redskins rank 13th DVOA vs the run and 21st vs receiving backs. Since the departure of AP, Ingram has averaged 20 carries and 100 yards per game.

Kareem Hunt ($8,000) – Hunt’s % of snaps the last 4 weeks: 77.7%, 72.6%, 74.2% and 54.4%. Charcandrick West is seeing an increased role lately and this is eating into Hunt’s workload. However let me state my case for him in GPP’s, the Giant’s rank 25th DVOA vs the run and the Chiefs will be putting up points. We have seen Hunt’s salary peak in week 4 to $9,400 and drop to $8,000 this week. For those reasons I can see playing Hunt in GPP’s.

Lesean Mccoy ($7,800) – The past 2 weeks have not been good for Shady as it appeared he had a groin injury hamper him on Thursday night 2 weeks ago and then last week the Bills were an utter disaster. I want to buy low for Shady shares and get him at lower ownership this week. It wasn’t long ago we saw McCoy seeing over 30 touches per game, but the last 2 weeks the Bills have gotten away from giving him the ball. This week the Bills play the Chargers who rank 26th DVOA against the run and rank 14th against pass catching backs.

Also Consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Chris Thompson ($5,400) – The Redskins are 7.5 point underdogs to the Saints who rank 28th DVOA against the run. Rob Kelley is out for the Redskins the next few weeks which won’t necessarily give Thompson more usage, but more importantly it doesn’t add someone else to the RB mix. With the Redskins playing from behind (as we project) this should give him the opportunity to pass catch from the backfield, and a great option in PPR formats.

Also Consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Orleans Darkwa ($4,800) – Darkwa is beginning to emerge as the Giants featured back. He has averaged 16 carries per game the last 4 weeks and 73 rushing yards per game. Those include some tough matchups like the Rams, Seahawks and Broncos. This week he faces the Chiefs who rank dead last DVOA against the run. I expect the Giants to be playing from behind but this hasn’t hampered his production the past 4 weeks.

Isaiah Crowell ($4,100) – Crowell has average 5.7 yards per carry his last two game against the Lions and Vikings and has still been involved in the passing game out of the backfield. This week Crowell gets a matchup against the Jaguars who rank 31st DVOA against running backs. This isn’t a pretty play but we are limited at RB this week with the slate on DK, and I don’t hate it for GPP’s.

Rex Burkhead ($3,600) – Another GPP play since we are talking Patriot RB’s roulette. I like taking Rex on DK formats with PPR scoring. Last week he saw 10 carries + 3 targets with a touchdown. The Raiders rank 24th DVOA vs the run and 28th vs pass catching backs. I think Burkhead has upside in this spot as they have started to feature him more recently, but like I said, GPP play only.

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions:  

Wide Receivers

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Mike Evans ($7,900) – Evans is the highest priced WR on Draftkings this week coming off a 1 game suspension. Jameis will be out for the matchup against the Dolphins, but Miami has no one to contain Mike Evans. The ‘Phins rank 30th DVOA against the pass and I think with his elevated salary, and lack of recent production his ownership may stay down this week.

Also consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Brandin Cooks ($6,600) – We have seen Cooks salary come down from $8,200 to start the season and on top of that the Patriots are down Edelman and Hogan since then. We will have to monitor Chris Hogan’s injury this week and see if he comes back, but if he is out I really like Cooks against the Raiders this week. The Raiders rank 32nd DVOA vs the pass and Brady should pick the secondary apart in Mexico City. Cooks saw a season high 11 targets against the Broncos last week and this trend should continue.

Amari Cooper ($6,000) – This is one of the most polarizing DFS topics for NFL and you either are an Amari Cooper fan or you’re on #teamCrabtree. I play majority GPP’s so I want the high ceiling players, and that is what Cooper offers over Crabtree. Cooper has seen a massive 38 targets over his past 3 games which equates to almost 13 targets per game. The Patriots rank 29th DVOA vs the pass and with the Raiders most likely playing from behind I really like the spot for the Raiders passing game.

Also consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Ted Ginn ($4,800) – The Saints play the Redskins and we saw what Thielen did to them last week out of the slot, roast them for 166 yards and a touchdown. Ginn avoids lining up on the left side for the most part which he won’t see Josh Norman coverage. As I mentioned above, I think the Saints throw more this game in a higher scoring matchup with the Redskins so this will give Ginn some more opportunities.

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions: 

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,300) – We know the rule is to play tight ends against the Giants, and Kelce couldn’t get a better matchup. The Giants rank 22nd in DVOA against TE and last week extended their streak to 10 straight games with giving up a TD to a tight end. Kelce has 3 game in which he has scored for over 27 DK points this season.

Rob Gronkowski ($7,200) – The Pats have added Martellus Bennett after signing him last week and this helped bring Gronk’s salary down in a great matchup. Oakland ranks 28th DVOA vs tight ends this year and I don’t see the addition of Bennett taking away from Gronk’s usage. Gronk saw 7 targets last week in a complete blowout to the Bronoco’s, I think the Raiders can keep it closer this week and keep Gronk involved through the 4th quarter.

Evan Engram ($6,000) – Engram is becoming the weekly red zone target for Eli Manning as he has a TD in each of his last 4 weeks. I am still waiting for the big 100+ yard game and it is coming, he has the speed to break away from LB and safety coverage. The Chiefs rank 14th DVOA vs tight ends this year, but game script will be in Engram’s favor and he should see double digit targets this week.

Jared Cook ($4,800) – I mentioned already the great spot the Raiders passing game is in this week. Jared Cook is another weapon to pair with Derek Carr. The Patriots rank 14th DVOA vs tight ends and Cook has 2 100+ yard games in the last 3 games. Carr has been looking his way often and the chemistry seems to be there. Cook is a good spot to take some salary relief to pay up at other positions.

Also consider:

Late Week Additions: 

Defense

Here are our favorite Defenses in play this weekend:

Jaguars ($4,000)

Broncos ($3,800)

Browns ($2,300) – GPP ONLY


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