Week 12 Player Targets

QUARTERBACKS

The High-End Model ($6800+)

Tom Brady ($7,700) – Brady is once again the most expensive QB on the DK main slate but QB salaries are once again priced down this week relative to other positions. This week Brady gets a beautiful matchup against a 31st DVOA ranked defense against the pass.  The dolphins are struggling this year and the Patriots should be able to put points up.  If Hogan is still out, a Brady – Cooks pairing may be my highest owned stack again.

Russell Wilson ($7,000) – With no running game, the Seahawks are going to need to take it to the air.  Russ has had to take it on the ground as well with his swiss cheese O-line.  The floor and upside are enormous for Russ when he takes off running.  This is a matchup that we can exploit against a 26th DVOA ranked defense against the pass.

Also consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6700)

Cam Newton ($6,600) – The Panthers finally realized that they need to let Cam run for him to be successful.  When you let him run it opens up their entire defense as the opposing defense suddenly needs to cover both Cam and CMC out of the backfield.  His last 2 games resulted in rushing yards of 95 and 86 yards. The ceiling and floor are both there when Cam is allowed to run.

Andy Dalton ($6,000) – This could be a sneaky play this week.  You beat the Browns through the air as Cleveland is ranked 2nd DVOA against the rush and 20th against the pass.  The last time these two teams met Dalton torched the Browns for 29 DK points in Cleveland. The Bengals should come out slinging and a Dalton – Green stack should come in at a combined low ownership.

Also Consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,500) – Fitzpatrick has strung together 2 wins for the Bucs the last 2 weeks over the Jets and Dolphins. The more important stat to take away from this is how ineffective Doug Martin has been in those games, and Fitzpatrick throwing for 71 attempts. The game against the Jets did not have Mike Evans, and last week Evans saw 10 targets for 92 yards. This week the Bucs take on Falcons who will have a short week flying across country. The Falcons rank 23rd vs the pass and the Bucs should be playing catch up to give Fitzmagic 35+ attempts.

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Running Backs

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Todd Gurley ($8,800) – Last week was a very tough matchup against the Vikings and he still put up 15 points. This week he gets a better matchup and should see plenty of more opportunities inside the 5 yard line.  With the number of bell-cows on the decline, I love getting the guaranteed usage even at an elevated price.  The Saints rank 25th DVOA against the rush.  Even if the Rams get behind, the floor is still there for Gurley with his usage in the passing game.

LeSean McCoy ($8,500) – We were on Shady last week and he gets another good matchup against a Chiefs rush defense ranked dead last DVOA against the rush.  Darkwa put up a decent game last week against them and there is no reason that Shady shouldn’t.  With Taylor back under center, there should be targets funneled his way as well.

Also Consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Christian McCaffery ($6,900) – The departure of Kelvin Benjamin has opened up the pass game for Funchess and CMC. Last game against the Dolphins CMC had heavy red zone usage, leading to a rushing and receiving TD. The Panthers take on the Jets this week, and while the Jets have a decent run D that ranks 16th DVOA, they rank 23rd DVOA for receiving backs. This is a GPP option but I would expect CMC to get back on track to seeing double digit targets and close to 10 carries as well.

Carlos Hyde ($5,500) – The 49ers are running out of weapons on offense with losing Pierre Garcon and the leg injury to George Kittle (who could play this week). Seattle has also been hampered with injuries losing Sherman and Chancellor for the season. Over the past 4 weeks Hyde has averaged 18.5 touches per game, and has zero rushing or receiving touchdowns in the past 4 weeks. The Niners lean heavily on Hyde and at $5,500 he offers value with upside if he can get into the endzone.

Also Consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Dion Lewis ($4,800) – Yes, the Patriots have a nasty roulette wheel.  However, there aren’t many cheap backs that I like and you get cheap exposure to the Patriots running back taking the most amount of snaps and getting the first down and goal line touches with Gillislee pretty much done.  He has seen increased usage in the passing game as well. Getting 15 touches a week at this price in one of the most explosive offenses in a great matchup is enticing.

JD McKissic ($3,700) – McKissic may get an opportunity here this week if Mike Davis does not play. The Seahawks have shown trust in McKissic the past few weeks easing him into the Seahawks system and playing him on passing downs. The past 2 weeks Russell Wilson has targeted JD 14 times which we like in PPR formats. The 49ers rank 31st against pass catching backs, so the opportunity is there for McKissic this week in a great matchup.

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions:  

Wide Receivers

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Julio Jones ($7,700) – When is that monster game from Julio going to happen.  He was a dropped TD away from that happening 2 weeks ago.  This week he gets a depleted Buccaneers D that just got torched by Stills.  I will keep playing Jones until we get that 30 point game that will win you a GPP.

Mike Evans ($7,400) – Mike Evans has yet to reach 100 yards receiving this season. The day is coming and I will be rostering Evans in favorable matchups until it does happen. The Falcons as I mentioned earlier are flying all the way from Seattle on a short week, and they rank 23rd DVOA against the pass. Last November against the Falcons, Evans posted 11 catches for 150 yards and 2 TDs. Let’s make it happen again this week with Fitzmagic.

Brandin Cooks ($7,100) – We have seen Cooks salary come down from $8,200 to start the season and on top of that the Patriots are down Edelman and Hogan since then. We will have to monitor Chris Hogan’s injury this week and see if he comes back, but if he is out I really like Cooks against the Dolphins this week. I could just hit copy-paste this week as this is a very similar matchup to last week if Hogan is still out.  The Dolphins are 31st DVOA against the pass so another Patriots onslaught at home is on tap.

Also consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Devin Funchess ($6,100) – Funchess’ success hinges on Cam’s level of play.  When the offense is rolling, Funchess gets an immediate bump as the WR1 at only $6,100.  Funchess may see a whole lot of Buster Skrine which could lead to a nice payday.  Funchess only sees 6-8 targets a game so the downside is that he has to be very efficient with his touches.

Danny Amendola ($5,800) – Now healthy with Hogan out, Amendola gets you cheap exposure to an explosive offense.  With the possibility of 8+ targets against a bad defense, Amendola could easily hit 3x value.

Also consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Corey Davis ($4,900) – This is finally the week we can deploy Davis.  The Colts are 25th DVOA against the pass and Davis gets a matchup on the fast turf in Indy.  The 5th overall pick has flashed signs of talent and should get some decent opportunities in a great matchup.  The Titans will want to get him involved and I wouldn’t be surprised if Davis has a huge game.

Kenny Stills ($4,800) – I hate chasing points but last week if you told me Matt Moore was QB, I would have played Stills over Parker. Matt Moore and Kenny Stills rank 4th out of all QB to WR combo’s in PPR per route and ranks first in PPR per target with at least 200 routes (per Scott Barrett). The Dolphins face New England who rank 30th DVOA vs pass.

Dede Westbrook ($3,600) – Preseason darling Westbrook seems to be back to full health and should see plenty of opportunities with Hurns’ possibly sidelined again.  If we get news that he will not see much of Peterson, I will gladly hop on Westbrook’s talent at only $3,600.

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions: 

Tight Ends

Delanie Walker ($5,000) – Mariota has targeted Walked 9 times in each of the past 2 games.   Indy rankes 24th DVOA against the TE so I like getting the targets are a much cheaper price than the expensive tight ends.  Finally without an injury designation, Walker is a talented tight end at only 5k.

Jack Doyle ($4,500) – Doyle has one bad game and a reduced price and people will likely stay away.  With Brissett (if cleared) focusing on the TE, Doyle should return to his 7-9 targets against the Titans.  Playing Doyle will likely hinge on the status of Brissett in the concussion protocol.

Charles Clay ($4,100) – The Bills may be without Jordan Matthews and Kelvin Benjamin this week. Clay has only seen just over 50% of the snaps the last 2 weeks coming off his injury, but I expect him to see his normal workload this week. Also we want to make sure Tyrod Taylor is playing before firing up Clay, Peterman as we know is garbage but Coach McDermott has beer goggles on watching Peterman play and thinks he is a good NFL QB. /RANT.

Also consider:

Late Week Additions: 

Defense

Here are our favorite Defenses in play this weekend:

Eagles ($3,600)

Jaguars ($4,100)

Patriots ($3,400)

Bengals ($3,700)


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