Week 13 Player Targets

QUARTERBACKS

The High-End Model ($6500+)

Tom Brady ($7,800) – QB pricing has slowly been pushed down over the last month. Brady has been priced up over $8,000 earlier this season yet has come off 3 very strong performances the past 3 weeks. Brady gets a good matchup against the Bills who rank 19th DVOA against the pass, and Brady has a good history against the Bills. Look for Belichek and Brady to pick apart the weak spots in the Bills D and utilize Gronk as they have in the past. I like pairing Gronk, Rex and Brady in GPPs.

Phillip Rivers ($7,000) – Rivers is coming off a monster game on Thanksgiving where he posted 433 yards and 3 TDs, completeing over 80% of his passes. This week he gets a dream matchup against the Browns who rank 15th DVOA against the pass and more importantly cannot cover the slot where Keenan Allen will be feasting. Keenan Allen is coming off a 37.2 and 43.2 DK points the last two weeks. I also like pairing Rivers with Hunter Henry in GPPs, as the Browns rank dead last DVOA against TEs and Henry has been seeing more snaps.

Also consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6400)

Jameis Winston ($5,600) – Jameis is returning from his shoulder injury and we get a severe discount on him this week at just $5,600. The Bucs play the Packers who rank 16th DVOA against the pass but have been giving up big games to QBs lately. Jameis and Mike Evans make for a great pairing this week and I really like bringing it back with Davante Adams who has been the Packers #1 with Hundley.

Josh McCown ($5,500) – McCown has been sensational this year with having 3 games of 25+ DK points. Last week he threw for 307 yards and 3 TDs against the Panthers. This week the Jets get an even better matchup against the Chiefs who rank 26th DVOA against the pass. The Chiefs are giving up yards to the tight end position, so I think ASJ makes for a great GPP pairing.

Also Consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Brett Hundley ($5,100) – Hundley has quietly passed for over 200 yards the last 4 games and has shown some flash.  The Packers now face an atrocious defense that ranks 30th DVOA against the pass.  After putting up decent numbers against a tough Steelers defense on the road, Hundley is set up to hit value.  At only 5,100, 15 points is a reasonable expectation and the opportunity should be there to have his best game of the year.

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions: 

Running Backs

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Todd Gurley ($8,200) – Gurley is the top option at RB this week since Leveon is not on the main slate once again. Arizona ranks 4th against the run and 17th DVOA vs pass catching backs. Most times I will ignore DVOA against top backs unless they are clearly facing a shut down run defense, especially when you have a guy like Gurley who gets 100% of red zone work. The Rams will be able to move the ball against the Cardinals, and the floor is high with Gurley as he sees plenty of attention in the pass game.

Also Consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Kareem Hunt ($6,900) – We got the news Friday that Charcandrick West will miss the game and he has been one reason to Hunt’s lack of snaps lately. Hunt has not seen more than 70% of the snaps the past 4 weeks, this will all change this week. The Chiefs have gotten away from the run lately and using Hunt, look for him to have lower ownership this week against the Jets at a discount.

Jordan Howard ($6,500) – You play running backs against San Francisco, no questions asked.  Hopefully last week will keep people off Howard as the Bears were forced to abandon the run game early as they were down early.  San Francisco is 22nd DVOA against the rush and have allowed 129.5 rushing yards per game, good (or bad) for 30th in the league.  I will take my chances on Howard.

Carlos Hyde ($5,900) – We wrote up Hyde last week and going right back to the well this week.  It will be interesting to see how his role changes with Jimmy G under center.  Beathard looked Hyde’s direction often and that should continue with the lack of receiving options on this 49ers squad.  I love getting 20+ touches at mid-range price as anything can happen when you give a running back that many touches.

Dion Lewis ($5,500) – Dion is splitting snaps with Burkhead.  However, when you can get 15+ touches a game in this high powered offense at a reduced salary, you get an awesome opportunity to get a piece of the Patriots. Dion has shown his explosiveness this year and I will continue to play Lewis until his price rises, especially against a BUF ranked 27th DVOA against the Rush.

Also Consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

DJ Foster ($3,000) – AP is looking toward doubtful status so this is a pure punt play. The Cardinals figure to be playing from behind and Kerwynn Williams is coming off broken ribs so he has yet to show he can be the guy coming back from injury. Foster has seen involvement in the pass game, so I think he should easily hit value at his price tag. He was a stud at ASU and has big play ability.

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions:  Rex Burkhead

Wide Receivers

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Adam Thielen ($7,500) – Thielen is the focus of this offense.  In order to keep up with Atlanta’s rejuvenated offense, the Vikings are going to need to go through the air on the fast turf.  Thielen is averaging almost 10 targets a game this year and gets a nice matchup against Atlanta’s 25th DVOA ranked defense against the pass.  Coming from the slot I would also expect Thielen to avoid Trufant for the most part.

DeAndre Hopkins ($7,300) – Nuk is heavily involved in this anemic offense as the ball is funneled his way as there aren’t many options available.  Nuk is seeing over 10 targets a game and gets a matchup against the Titans (24th DVOA against the pass defense). In a PPR format, getting 7+ catches a game gives you a floor and the chance for a nice ceiling, even with Savage under center.

Mike Evans ($7,100) – Evans is seeing over 10 targets a week.  We get a healthy Winston back and we know which way he looks first.  Evans should be priced about 1k higher with his projected volume and opportunities in the red zone, especially against a week GB defense.  We will have heavy exposure to Evans this week.

Also consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Davante Adams ($6,500) – We know who Hundley’s favorite WR is.  Adams has been on a tear lately and people are starting to catch on.  However, I don’t think I can avoid him this week in a matchup against a very weak TB defense that just got absolutely torched by Julio.  Tampa is allowing the most passing yards per game to opposing teams and I will look to target Adams in this matchup.  He has been seeing over 9 targets per game the last 4 weeks and should be given every opportunity to crush.

Cooper Kupp ($6,400) – Kupp’s stock has risen exponentially with Woods out.  Last week Kupp saw 11 targets and now faces a team that has allowed the 4th most points to Slot WR.  With PPete likely to shadow Watkins, Kupp could have another monster game at this price.

Also consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Dede Westbrook ($4,100) – We are sticking with our guy.  Dede saw 10 targets last week with Hurns sidelined and gets another great matchup against Indy at home.  It was a little worrisome that he didn’t have a catch longer than 10 yards.  However, we saw what Mr. Preseason can do when given the opportunity and I will take the chances in a great matchup at this price.

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions: STEFON DIGGS, LARRY FITZGERALD

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski ($7,300) – It’s simple, you jam Gronk in when he returns home to Buffalo.  I don’t think much needs to be said here but I will make sure I have exposure to this NE offense that is on a steamroll.

Jared Cook ($5,400) – With Crabtree suspended and Cooper dealing with ankle/concussion symptons, Cook is suddenly the only receiving option with an established connection with Carr. Davis sure gave us a dud last week against the Giants as you always play TE’s against the Giants.  I believe that was a fluke and will continue targeting this trend.  Cook is a great mid-range option at tight end.

Hunter Henry ($4,700) – Wow, the Chargers finally decided to utilize their stud tight end as he has seen 5 targets in back to back games.  This week they get a defense who is dead last DVOA against the TE.  With the Chargers rolling and the the Browns being a pass funnel defense, I love getting pieces of this offense.  We can expect 5-6 targets for Henry and we know what he can do with them.

Also consider:

Late Week Additions: 

Defense

Here are our favorite Defenses in play this weekend:

Jaguars ($4,500)

Chargers ($4,000)

Saints ($2,800)

Lions ($3,000)

Ravens


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