Week 14 2017
OAK (22.5) @ KC (26.5)
Sharp money is on Oakland here as the line has swung their way by 0.5 points while only receiving 40% of the vote.
Andy Reid gave up playcalling duties last week and the Chiefs promptly put up 31 points, which was their best offensive performance since Week 5. This week, he gets a historically bad pass defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA. While they have limited QBs to under 15 points in each of the last two weeks, they have faced Denver and Geno Smith, so this says more about their matchups than a new found defensive resolve. When they last played each other in Week 7, Smith put up a passing line of 25-342-3 on them. Smith is clearly a top option on the week, and you can pair him with either Hill or Kelce or both. Hill will probably the lesser owned option FWIW, and he has been surprisingly consistent across his last 6 games. While the Broncos did shut him down in one of those, he has scored double-digit points in the other 5 and has gone over 25 points twice. Kelce has, of course, also been very consistent as he has gone above 20 points in 4 out of his last 5.
West is going to return for this one, so I expect Hunt’s floor to vanish again. Further downgrading him will be the absence of starting C, Mitch Morse, so I’m just going to stop rostering him.
On the other side of the ball, Cooper is the big question mark as his status is uncertain as of now. If he cannot go, Crabtree will see huge volume as he was already seeing double-digit targets in 2 out of the 3 games before Denver (I’m not counting this game due to obvious reasons). Cook is another one who massively disappointed in each of the last two weeks, but I’m really not sure if I can go back there as he has 4 catches over his past 3 games. Yes, he still has seen volume over this period – 15 targets – and he did get that TD overturned against DEN, but I just prefer Crabtree here. Crabtree will get the luxury of going against 86th-ranked, Terrance Mitchell, and unranked but awful, Darrell Revis, on the outside as Marcus Peters got suspended for this one. If Cooper can play, I’ll probably have some exposure to him due to his upside, but I have serious concerns about whether his ankle will hold up, so this is definitely a GPP only play.
Lynch now has several strong outings in a row, where he has scored 4 TDs and put up 20+ points in 3 out of his last 4, and has seen 14 or more carries in each of these 3. KC also ranks 30th against the run, so this is hypothetically a good spot for him. Potentially negative game script and the possibility of a vulture by either Washington or Richard does worry me some, so I’m not sure what I’m going to do yet. His price tag isn’t prohibitive at $5700, but he isn’t very involved in the pass game as he hasn’t seen 4+ targets in a single game yet this year. Overall, I don’t love him and I don’t hate him, and I’m leaning towards not rostering him.
SF (21.25) @ HOU (23.75)
Jimmy G looked decent last week against Chicago, and he gets the 15th-ranked pass D of HOU this week. I still feel like they are worse than this, but they did hold Mariota to 150 passing yards last week (he didn’t have to throw all that much though). Garoppolo should have to throw it more in this game though and weather conditions will be better than what he saw last week in cold and blustery Chicago. I love pairing him with Goodwin here as he gets 114th-ranked Kevin Johnson for most of the day and he was clearly Jimmy G’s go-to receiver last week. He didn’t go over 100 yards or score a TD (he put up 8-99-0), so he should fly under the radar here, but I really like him as a cheap GPP option this week. Kittle has unbelieve athleticism, but he seems like an afterthought currently, so I’m going to avoid him here.
HOU is stronger against the run, 10th in DVOA, and also get Cushing back this week, which will boost them even further. Hyde is clearly talented and you will get him at low ownership after also disappointing last week, but it’s tough to love his upside since the Texans have stifled other backs recently. It’s also worth noting that his involvement in the passing game took a step back as he only saw 5 targets, but I won’t be surprised if this climbs in a more negative game script.
SF continues to be better than a lot of people think against RBs and Miller still doesn’t have a single game of above 75 rushing yards on the year. Sure, he might get 2 TDs this week, which will suck since he will see high ownership, but I’m going to fully fade him here. Ellington saw 6 targets last week, but if the Texans are leading, I don’t think we can reliably count on much receiving production from him.
Hopkins “only” had 16 points last week and continues to see huge volume as he hasn’t seen less than 9 targets in any of his last 6 and has hit at least 14 (!!!) in 3 of these. He’s going to be uber chalky again this week, but I don’t think you can get away from exposure to him especially on DK. He also will line up across from Dontae Johnson for most of his day, which is not good news for the 104th-ranked Johnson as we have seen Hopkins beat much better CBs this year.
MIN (21.25) @ CAR (18.75)
Carolina is 5th against the run, but we saw Ingram and Kamara destroy them. To be fair, they have destroyed everyone they have faced so far this year. I’m probably going to steer clear of both Murray and McKinnon here even though they should have a positive game script.
Diggs was very chalky last week, and he disappointed a lot of people including yours truly. Thus, you can get him at incredibly low ownership this week, and I don’t hate the idea of going back to the well since he will match-up against 94th-ranked, James Bradberry. His volume continues to be a concern, however, so you could also take Thielen, who will also have a cupcake match-up against Munnerlyn in the slot. Last week, Thielen had a season-low 5 targets against the Falcons, but that game just feels like an anomaly to me. As I have previously mentioned, in the 6 weeks before that, he had double-digit targets in 5 of them and also went above 16 points 5 times. Let’s also take a look at what WR1s have done against Carolina recently:
|Rec TDs||DK Points|
Between the Panthers’ circumspect pass D and the Vikings not being able to run on them, I like the idea of running a Keenum-Diggs-Thielen stack out there. My main concern with this is if the Panthers won’t be able to keep pace, which seems like a real possibility against the Vikings’ strong D.
Funchess will get the Rhodes treatment and none of the other WRs are worth mentioning. Olsen will play in this one and $4300 is too little for his skillset, but I’m worried about him playing limited snaps and MIN is pretty strong against TEs regardless.
CMC will again be a volume-based option, but I don’t see myself ending up here as he has continuously been priced too high on DK throughout the season. I’m also not going to play Stewart against the #6 run defense in a negative game script.
CHI (16.25) @ CIN (22.75)
It looks like the Bears will be without their top safety (Adrian Amos), linebacker (Pernell McPhee), and d-lineman (Eddie Goldman). Gio was already going to be the chalkiest play on the slate at only $3100 since Mixon cannot go, but this only makes this match-up better for him. He will also be over 50% owned on this slate, so proceed as you will. Just in case you were wondering, the only person behind him is Brian Hill, who has only been active for 2 games this year and has 0 touches in them. Personally, I will probably match the field on Gio on DK as I just cannot forego this workload and pass-catching ability at this price, but I’m much more bearish on him on FD.
Green will still see heavy ownership, but it should be maybe a third of what Gio will see, and the Bears won’t really be able to stop him either. Over their past 4, Chicago has given up at least 85 yards and 17.9 DK points in each to their opponent’s top receiving option, so projecting a receiving line of around 8-90-1 seems reasonable. The other receiving options are not great for Dalton, so I won’t go anywhere else.
The Bengals two top CBs, Adam Jones and Dre Kirkpatrick, will both miss this one as will Vontaze Burfict, but I doubt that Trubisky will be able to take advantage of their absences (we just saw him throw for only 102 yards against SF). Between Trubisky’s shortcomings and the general ineptitude of this offense, I refuse to roster any of his receivers.
As we know, Howard is incredibly game-flow dependent, so with the Bears projected to trail, I cannot go here. In general, I’m going to steer clear of this backfield as you need Cohen to break off a long TD to pay off his salary. While we all know that this is possibility, it’s not something I plan on banking on.
GB (21.5) @ CLE (16.25)
Sharp money has swung the line Cleveland’s way by 0.5 points on only 30% of the bets. After going through the breakdown, I agree with the sharp money here as this will be closer than a lot of people think, and I won’t be surprised if Cleveland comes away with the upset.
Josh Gordon will probably be the highest owned WR this week as he just put up 4-85-0 last week on Casey Hayward, the #1 CB per PFF on the year. Hayward stated after the game that Gordon was the hardest match-up he has had all year, and we need to remember that he also went against OBJ. In that game, Gordon ripped down some tough balls and saw 11 targets overall, with 5 coming 20+ yards down the field. Further adding to his allure is that GB’s already bad pass defense, 29th in DVOA, will be without their best outside CB, Davon House. You could pivot to Coleman here, but his workload plummeted last week with the return of Gordon as he saw only 4 targets. Either way, I will have exposure to both Gordon and Kizer here as he is still sub-$5000, and Kizer’s rushing ability does give him a floor. While I don’t really like Kizer in general – as everyone probably knows – I’m fine with taking a couple of shots with him here.
While GB does rank a much stouter 9th against the run, you could pivot from Gordon to Crowell here if you want. The Packers have given up back-to-back 20+ point games to RBs and routinely get beat by quality run games. So we have the two questions put to us now – do they have a quality run game and will game flow limit Crowell at all? To the first, I think it’s debatable as the Cleveland line ranks 10th in adjusted line yards per FO, and Crowell has gone above 4.0 YPC in 4 out of his last 5. In regards to the second, he has seen double-digit carries in every game this year other than one, so he is fairly game flow independent. He also sees the majority of the goal line work, so if they find themselves in several short yardage situations, it’s conceivable that he scores multiple TDs here. I might end up with 10ish%, but I doubt I will go higher. DJ-lite continues to be fairly steady, but he hasn’t shown GPP-winning upside, and I doubt he starts this week.
While Cleveland’s weakness to TEs is well known, neither Kendricks or Rodgers is seeing steady volume (or really any volume) in this offense, so I don’t see myself going to either of them. Sure, one of them will probably 4x their salary on a 10-yard TD, but their ceiling is capped and I’m not going to try and guess which one will score. Just as a refresher, here are the TEs versus the Browns:
|Week||Recs||Rec Yards||Rec TDs||DK Points|
While Cleveland does rank 1st against the run, outside of Melvin Gordon last week, the Browns have given up 100+ yard rushing games in each of the two weeks before that. Williams also continues to look better and better as he had another solid week last week, and is involved in both the run game and passing downs. I do also just want to say that Aaron Jones remains pretty freaking good. On his lone touch last week, he took it 20 yards to the house.
Both Adams and Cobb have very tough match-ups this week as I expect McCourty to shadow Adams, so I’m not going to roll with either. Instead, I think we need to take a long look at Jordy here. While he has been absolutely abysmal under Hundley, he is finally starting to see some more volume as he got targeted 8 times last week. While his aDoT leaves a lot to be desired – most of these passes come around the line of scrimmage – this is an intriguing spot for him at only $4500. I probably won’t end up with any shares, but he is my GB WR pick if I do end up here.
DET @ TB
In good news for Stafford and the Lions’ passing game, Bucs CB, Vernon Hargreaves, will miss this one. They will also be without SS TJ Ward, but he is more important when looking at the run game. MJ gets a good match-up on the outside against Grimes and we have seen outside WRs absolutely demolish the Bucs recently including a 180-yard game by Kenny Stills and a 253-yard game by Julio. MJ has also performed admirably in difficult match-ups, and is averaging 8 targets/game over his last 3, so I will absolutely have exposure to him. You could also just take the $500 discount and roll with Tate as he will get the 96th-ranked Bobby McClain in the slot. We also know that the Lions just want to throw the ball regardless since they aren’t that effective at running it (currently dead last in adjusted line yards with 3.08).
Even though TB is also bad against the run, see the above stat. I’m going to steer clear here since Abdullah will probably be back for this one and we can’t effectively guarantee huge volume to any Detroit RB.
After Barber put up the best rushing line on the year for the Bucs last week, they have decided to go back to the anemic Doug Martin because of course. Detroit ranks 25th against the run and just look bad out there, but I’m done wasting money on Dougie.
Detroit has now given up TDs to TEs in 3 straight games and look extremely susceptible to the position. As I mentioned last week, Brate would definitely appreciate having Winston back, and boy did he as he laid down 2-39-2 on the Packers. He also saw 6 targets in that one, so his line could have been larger, and I will definitely have exposure again this week. Evans severely disappointed in a great match-up last week and only saw 6 targets, which tied his season low. We know that Winston will force it into him regardless of coverage as we saw him do just this earlier in the year when he put it up to him 8 times against Peterson and 11 times against Jenkins. Thus, while Slay is a concern, Evans will still see a lot of volume and, whenever you can get him at an ownership discount, you should take it. I plan on having exposure to both him and Jackson here as well. Speaking of Jackson, he only saw 3 targets last game, which is worrisome, but he gets another great match-up against DJ Hayden (ranked 83rd on the year). Overall, I expect Winston to have to throw here, and I won’t be surprised if this turns into a shootout. Take this with a grain of salt though, as I have expected that several times with TB this year and they have disappointed every single game.
IND @ BUF
The Colts top CB, Rashaan Melvin, will miss this one as well, but I doubt that Peterman can take advantage. If Taylor does somehow end up playing – I think I heard that this would literally take a miracle – I will have some shares of Clay. Assuming he cannot go though, I’m just going to ignore all of their receiving options and play Shady. While Indy is a much stouter 13th against the run, they are dead last against receiving backs, and the only way that the Bills will score is through Shady.
Moncrief will be out for this one, so Chester Rogers figures to get another couple of looks in his place, not that this really matters as I’m not going there. Hilton also has an incredibly difficult matchup on the outside and, as always, you are basically counting on him breaking a long TD (which is exactly what he did last week). I hear it now, “But what about Jack Doyle?” Well, he is still priced like he is seeing double-digit targets in every game – he’s $4900 – and only the elite TEs have done anything against BUF this year. He is not in the same league as Kelce or Gronk.
Marlon Mack continues to flash explosiveness and Chuck Pagano continues to not play him very much. Very well. This is gross to type, but I think Frank Gore is in play here. He has 7 RZ rushes over the past 2 weeks combined, has 5 straight weeks with double-digit carries (and went 16+ in 4 of them), only costs $4000, and BUF is 29th against the run:
|Week||Rushes||Rush Yards||Rush TDs||Recs||Rec
|Rec TDs||DK Points|
|Gordon + Ekeler||11||26||120||2||2||18||0||27.8|
Frankly, he is their best bet to move the ball (boom, nailed it).
DAL (22.25) @ NYG (18.75)
There is massive sharp money on the Giants here as the line has gone their way by 2.5 points on only 35% of the bets.
Sean Lee will return for this one, which obviously provides a huge boost to the Cowboys’ defense. With him back, I’m not going to touch the Giants’ already unattractive run game.
While starting slot corner Orlando Scandrick hasn’t been very good for Dallas, he will miss this one, and you can’t expect his back-up to be any better. His absence obviously bodes well for Sterling Shepard. While Engram out-targeted him last game, Manning will be back under center, and we know the kind of rapport that Shepard has with him (e.g. 13 targets against SF and 9 against LAR). I think having some exposure is justified, but I assume I will be underweight against the field on him as Labs projects him to have around 20% ownership, and we have to remember that this is just a bad offense in general. I suppose you could look at Engram as well, but outside of last week, he actually hasn’t looked all that good recently.
While we know that we want to attack the Giants over the middle, part of this for most of the year was that Janoris Jenkins was so strong on the outside. At this point, with Jenkins down, teams can attack the Giants pretty much anyway that they want to. While Witten is still viable from a volume perspective, he is just one of those guys that I don’t think has elite upside at this time of the year and at this point in his career. Instead, I think that we should take another look at Dez here. He put up pretty much the exact line I projected, and I won’t be shocked to see him put up an even larger line this week (something along the lines of 8-80-1). Simply put, he is too cheap against this bad secondary that is also without their other starting outside CB, Eli Apple, as well. The main concern I have for him is if the Giants decide to move DRC to the outside instead of manning the slot as this will hurt his line here. As of now, there is no news on this, but keep your ear to the ground.
Alf Morris saw a ridiculous 27 carries against Washington last week, and he turned that into 127 yards and a TD. While Snacks Harrison continues to be an elite interior run defender for the Giants, the rest of the run defense just isn’t great as they have now given up back-to-back games of 100 or more rushing yards to Perine and Lynch. The Cowboys also rank 3rd in adjusted line yards with 4.41, so they are still run blocking pretty well. Assuming that they have the lead here, Alf should see another 20+ carry day at only $5500, which is pretty ridiculous especially when he will see around 10% ownership. If Dallas does fall behind, however, his lack of involvement in the pass game is very worrisome.
WAS (20.5) @ LAC (26)
Keenan Allen is apparently the first player in NFL history to have 10+ catches, 100+ receiving yards, and 1+ receiving TDs in 3 straight games, which is pretty amazing. Either way, he will get a tough match-up this week against Kendall Fuller in the slot, who ranks 9th on the year. Mike Williams also should return for this one, which will throw their whole receiving corps into chaos if earlier in the year is anything to go by. We know that Hunter Henry is a great young TE who has seen 4 RZ targets across his last 3 games, but I’m seriously worried that we will return to the days of him only seeing 2 targets in a game. Due to the match-ups and price tags, Henry is my preferred option here, but we could also see the Chargers spread the ball out so much that no one truly has a huge game.
While the Chargers figure to have a big lead here, Gordon has been pretty inefficient when running the ball, and his line hasn’t really helped him out either. Throughout the year, he has been at his most effective when he was catching passes out of the backfield, but with Ekeler’s rise, Gordon has become less involved in that area. All told, I just don’t think I can roster either one of them.
We know that Cousins will have to throw due to being behind, but we also know that the Chargers have an elite secondary. They do rank only 23rd against TEs, however, so it would make sense if he looks to Davis early and often. The problem is that Davis has dropped off the face of the earth and has only seen 3 targets and 3.5 DK points total over his past two weeks in a couple of very soft matchups. He actually ran more pass routes last week than in those weeks were he was seeing 9ish targets, so perhaps these last two weeks have just been erroneous blips. While this doesn’t feel great, he is my pick to have a good game out of the WAS WRs.
While the Chargers are a runnel due to being much weaker, 28th, against the run, Perine seems incredibly game flow dependent. In their two wins/games where they led for most of the time, he has seen 23+ carries in each, but in last week’s blowout loss to the Cowboys, he only had 12 carries and 3 targets. Instead, we saw Marshall step in and see 6 targets against Dallas, and I assume that we can plan for another heavy dose of him. While I don’t hate the concept of playing him, I just don’t think he has huge upside, so I don’t see why we would end up here unless you are entering 150 lines and want to differentiate from Gio once.
TEN (23) @ ARI (20)
Rishard Matthews will return for this one, but I assume that Peterson will shadow him instead of Davis. Also, while Mariota has maintained his rushing floor, he just hasn’t had any huge passing games this year as he hasn’t topped 24 points once. Arizona as a whole has really come together as a secondary recently as well, so this passing game doesn’t really entice me. I suppose you could take a flyer on Delanie who continues to be Mariota’s go-to, but Arizona does rank 9th against TEs. It’s true that they have given up some big games to TEs throughout the year, but not much recently.
Arizona ranks 4th against the run, and Murray and Henry continue their maddening timeshare. Sure, Henry might break another long TD with a minute left – something he has done twice already this year – but again, this isn’t something I want to bank on.
Both AP and John Brown for this one, so the offense will once again have to flow through Gabbert and Fitz. While Fitz will go against the Titans’ best CB, Logan Ryan, Fitz does have 4” and 20+ pounds on him, so as long as Gabbert is accurate, he should be able to put it into places that only Fitz can get to. Overall, TEN ranks 25th against the pass and Gabbert has been decent, but we have seen his scoring and yardage decline in 3 straight games. True, 2 of those were against the Rams and JAX, so he does get a much softer match-up here, but I’m also slightly concerned that teams are starting to figure out his tendencies as they get more tape on him. Regardless, I think Fitz warrants some exposure here, but I’m not touching any of the other Arizona receivers as they have just looked bad for most of the year.
Kerwynn Williams will probably see the majority of the touches out of the backfield again this week, and he put up a line of 16-97-0 last week against the Rams, but he saw 0 targets in that game, so his floor is nonexistent. I’m not going to touch either him or DJ Foster.
NYJ (21.25) @ DEN (20.25)
Manny Sanders clearly seems bothered by his ankle as he has failed to go over 15 yards in any of his last 3 games. I’m going to hate myself come Sunday evening, but I might end up rostering a little D-Thom. His price continues to drop as he is only at $5000 this week, but he has also seen at least 8 targets in each of his last 6 games. True, his floor is non-existent when you have wildly inaccurate Trevor Siemian throwing you the ball, but he also has the potential to put up 7-70-1 (or more) at a low price and low ownership. It is worth noting that Siemian did put up only 349 combined passing yards against Oakland and Miami, who are both bottom-4 in the league, but the Jets aren’t much better at 27th. I’m just saying that we have seen 4 games of 20+ points from receivers over their past 4, with Hill, Kelce, Funchess, and freaking Deonte Thompson hanging this on them.
The Jets continue to be surprisingly stout run defense as they haven’t allowed any back to put up over 12 points them since Week 5, and Denver continues to be a miserable low-floor, low-ceiling committee anyway. FWIW, we did see CJA re-take the “lead back” status last week with 15 carries and another 7 targets, but I feel like this can change on any given week.
Robby Anderson has been a big bright spot for the Jets this year as he now has TDs in 5 straight games and looks surprisingly good. He has also been remarkably consistent as he has put up at least 14.8 points in each of his last 5, but his price is all the way up at $6500 this week, which is more than Golden Tate. We also just saw Kenny Stills put up 5-98-1 on them last week, but that was without Talib and he will return for this one. I’m going all in on ASJ in this match-up as Denver continues to hemorrhage TDs to tight ends, and I still believe in him. Over his past 3, his usage has swung wildly, but he has seen 7 or more targets in 2 of those and he is still running 30+ pass routes. Just as a reminder, here are what TEs have done against Denver:
|Rec TDs||DK Points|
DEN is #2 against the run and the Jets backfield is anything but predictable.
PHI (23.25) @ LAR (24.25)
There is sharp money on the under here as that has received 47% of the bets, but the line has fallen 3.5 points.
Ertz is still in the concussion protocol, so I doubt that he will get cleared in time for tomorrow’s game. While this would hypothetically open up Trey Burton, the Rams rank 4th in DVOA against the position, and unless you are an elite TE – like Ertz – I don’t really want to test the waters. With Ertz going down last week, we saw huge volume go Agholor’s way as he ended up with 12 targets and 7-141-1 in Seattle. While he will face off against the Rams’ best CB, Nickell Robey-Coleman, they have been vulnerable across the middle as we just saw Fitz put up 10-98-1 on them last week (albeit without NRC) and Thielen went for 6-123-1 in Week 11. If Ertz does end up playing, he will make an excellent pivot off of Kelce, who figures to be the chalk TE. If Ertz is out, I also like the idea of playing Jeffery here as he has seen 5 RZ targets across his last 4 and is the go-to big body when Ertz is down. In general, the Rams are 3rd in DVOA against the pass, and this will be a tough match-up for Wentz.
They are a much weaker 21st against the run and have given up 22.6 and 39.8 games to Murray and Kamara over their past 3 weeks respectively, but trying to figure out the Eagles’ RBBC is a nightmare. Ajayi continues to have explosive runs, but he has yet to see double-digit carries in a week, so I’m going to stay away here.
While Robert Woods did return as a limited participant on Friday, he isn’t expected to play in this one, so Kupp and Watkins will still be the go-to targets this week. Kupp gets the Eagles best CB – and the #3 CB of the year – Patrick Robinson in the slot, so I’m expecting him to get nullified here. Watkins has seen his usage fluctuate, and I’m concerned about his ability to have a big day here. Sure, he had his best day a couple of weeks ago where he put up 18.2 on the Saints, but that was when they were without their 2 best CBs. On the year, the Eagles rank 4th against the pass, and they haven’t allowed a receiver to go over 70 yards since Week 6. I won’t play Goff, and I might completely fade Watkins as well.
The Eagles also rank 3rd against the run, so Gurley will have tough sledding here as well. RBs can beat them through the air, however, as they gave up that string of 13+ point games through the air to the position earlier in the year, and we just saw Davis and McKissic combine for 5-52-1 on them last week. Gurley has now failed to go over 74 rushing yards in 6 straight, but he is seeing heavy involvement in the passing game. Thus, I particularly like him on DK since it is full PPR.
SEA (18.75) @ JAX (21.25)
Allen Hurns will miss this one as well, so it will continue to be the Westbrook and Lee show. Westbrook has seen his number of pass routes increase every week so far – 35 > 34 > 21 – and he has increased his DK score every week so far going from 6.5 to 10.1 to 13.8 points. He has also seen a whopping 19 targets across his last two combined, but he does only have 1 RZ target on the year, however. Lee also saw 10 targets last week, and I still feel like the Seattle secondary is overrated at this point. Between the two of them, Lee has looked better for most of the year, and Westbrook is clearly still acclimating as a rookie. I’m excited to see what he can moving forward, but I’m not sure if I want to roster him here.
Due to it being easier to pass on Seattle, I probably won’t go to Fournette as I just don’t love rostering him in general, but he has seen 20+ carries in 2 out of his last 3, so you will get volume with him. He does seem very game flow dependent, however, as these big carry games came in their easy wins against the Colts and Browns, and I assume that this game will be close.
The Jags grade out as 23rd against the run, but no one has been able to run on them effectively since they acquired Dareus. They are vulnerable to receiving backs, however, and we have seen Davis get more involved in the passing game recently with his 4 targets last week. While Seattle’s o-line still sucks as they have created the 3rd-least adjusted line yards, 3.43, Davis has shown some explosiveness and only costs $3700 this week. I’m definitely concerned about McKissic vulturing passing work from him, but Davis and Gore are probably the best two low-cost pivots away from Gio. I’m going to have minor exposure to both, but it is really tough for me to get away from Bernard here (everyone else is going to have the same issue as well).
Jacksonville has the #1 pass defense and Bouye and Ramsey are incredible, but they also haven’t faced that many great QBs on the year. Just as a quick rundown, they faced Savage/Watson, Mariota, Flacco/Mallett, McCown, Big Ben, Goff, Brissett x 2, Dalton, Rivers, Kizer, and Gabbert. Surprisingly, Gabbert put up a 22-241-2 line on them with only 1 INT, and Wilson did just put up 24.18 points on the Eagles last week, so there is some hope for him after all. While they are great against the pass, they are only 15th against TEs, and Jimmy Graham has looked unstoppable recently. He also still leads the league in RZ targets with 27. I don’t think I can go with any of the SEA WRs though, and that includes Baldwin as JAX completely shut down Keenan Allen when they faced him a couple of weeks ago. Either way, Wilson to Graham is a super contrarian stack that could pay dividends.