Week 14 Player Targets

QUARTERBACKS

The High-End Model ($6500+)

Carson Wentz ($7,100) – Wentz is going to try and bounce back from a dissapointing game in Seattle last Sunday night. This week the Eagles face the Rams in LA who rank 4th DVOA against the pass, but have regressed the last few weeks. The current vegas total is at 49.5 points, one of the highest on the week. If Ertz cannot pass concussion protocol, Alshon and Agholar make for great stacks with Wentz.

Phillip Rivers ($6,800) – Rivers has been awesome the last few weeks, and alot of that success has come from the connection with Keenan Allen. The Chargers face the Redskins who have been average in the league for points through the air, ranking 14th DVOA against the pass. Rivers has thrown for 344, 434 and 251 yards his last 3 weeks and attempted at least 32 passes in each of those weeks. Keenan will avoid Norman in the slot, Hunter Henry is another great pairing with Rivers this week.

Alex Smith ($6,500) – Box Score chasers will go directly to Smith.  I really don’t hate that move though facing a Raiders pass defense that ranks dead last DVOA against the pass.  The first time these teams met Smith threw for 342 and 3 touchdowns on the road.  With Reid giving up playcalling duties, this offense can get back to their explosiveness in the beginning of the year.

Also consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6400)

Jameis Winston ($5,900) – Famous Jameis returned last week against Green Bay and showed some signs of rust but also a spark for the offense. It was very tilting checking this game at halftime and seeing Mike Evans without a target. I am going right back to Winston and Evans this week against the Lions. The Lions had alot of trouble containing big physical WR with the Panthers (Funchess and Benjamin) and I think Evans rebounds in this spot.

Also Consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,500) – Jimmy G was able to shake off the rust last week against a decent defense.  Now he gets to take on a depleted Houston D that is giving up 235 passing yards a game and ranking 17th DVOA against the pass.  Goodwin has been his primary target and these 2 could connect for a monster game this week.

Deshone Kizer ($4,900) – Kizer has shown he has a decent floor this season with his rushing upside. Add Josh Gordon and a healthy Corey Coleman and he is surrounded with weapons. This week the Browns face a weak Green Bay defense that ranks 16th DVOA against the pass. Kizer targeted Gordon 11 times last week, and now with the Browns returning back to Cleveland for Gordon’s homecoming , you can expect some fireworks.

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions: 

Running Backs

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Todd Gurley ($8,100) – This is a GPP play as the Eagles rank 3rd DVOA against the run, but the Rams will be able to move the ball and Gurley gets all the red zone usage. Gurley has averaged 18 carries and 7 targets over his last 2 games. Currenly Vegas has this total at 49.5 as one of the highest on the slate.

Lesean McCoy ($7,200) – Tyrod Taylor will most likely be missing this game and the offense for the Bills will have to funnel through Shady. This is a big discount on him for the usage he will be seeing against a very poor Colts defense. Shady has been known to have better home splits, and the Colts rank 13th DVOA vs the run and dead last against pass catching backs.

Also Consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Carlos Hyde ($6,000) – We have one game to now see what the Niners offense looks like under Jimmy G, Hyde saw 17 carries and 5 targets, so it is safe to say his production should not be hampered at all with the QB change. Hyde gets a good matchup against the Texans who have not been the same defense as they were to begin the season. Clowney has been a force with applying pressure to QB’s but I think that favors Hyde in dump offs in this game. Hyde has a safe floor in this matchup with a high ceiling if he can get back in the end zone.

Also Consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Alfred Morris ($5,500) – Although he is not involved in the passing attack, Morris gives us 20+ carries against a 25th DVOA ranked defense this week.  I don’t like messing with RBBC (Saints are an anomaly), so this gives us touches at a reduced price.

Peyton Barber ($4,500) – Martin is still in the concussion protocol as I write this.  If Martin is out, Barber has surpassed Jacquizz on the depth chart as he saw 23 carries last week.  Barber gets a bottom-ranked rushing defense with the opportunity to crush value. *UPDATE – Doug Martin will play*

Giovani Bernard ($3,100) – There are only 2 active running backs for CIN with Mixon going down with a concussion.  With the tight turnaround, I am banking on Mixon not being available.  You are getting a primary ball carrier with the potential for 15+ touches at minimum salary.  This is similar to playing Riddick last week.  Don’t overthink it.

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions:  

Wide Receivers

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Deandre Hopkins ($8,500) – Nuk is just becoming an auto play each week. He is seeing over 40% of the market share for the Texans passing game and Will Fuller is coming back with 2 cracked ribs this week. Per Pro Football Focus, Nuk has the most adventagous WR/CB matchup this week. Don’t be afraid of the high price tag and get him in your lineups.

AJ Green ($7,300) – This price is egregious for AJ Green who just saw a season high 16 targets last week against the Steelers and added 2 scores. The Bears rank 13th DVOA vs the pass and 25th against WR1. If Mixon misses this game it  furthers my interest in Green as he will see even more red zone targets.

Also consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Mike Evans ($6,900) – The Bucs are back at home and Jameis has another week to get healthy. This week the Bucs matchup against the Lions who have struggled as of late against WRs. Evans will get Darius Slay coverage who has had trouble this year with big and physical receivers. I really like stacking Evans with Winston here as a low owned GPP option.

Larry Fitzgerald ($6,500) – Even with Gabbert, Fitzgerald has continued to put up numbers week in and week out. This week again it is looking like AP will be out and this just gives more passing opportunities for the Cardinals. They face a pass funnel defense against the Titans who really have struggled to hold opponent WR in check. So everything points toward double digit targets this week again for the ageless Larry Fitzgerald.

Josh Gordon ($5,500) – What a treat it was to watch Gordon come back last week after a 3 year absence. Gordon looked sharp and was targeted 11 times from Kizer. If there was a week to lock button him I would say this is the week as his salary is just $5,500 and he gets a great matchup against the Packers. Don’t over think this and get him in your cash and GPP lineups.

Also consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Marquise Goodwin ($5,100) – As mentioned above, Goodwin was Jimmy G’s favorite target last week.  The 49ers should be able to move the ball against HOU with Jimmy G under center.  With the potential for 8+ targets at only $5,100 in a positive matchup, I love this pairing.  Goodwin had 8-99 last week and this could definitely repeat again with the 49ers lack of receiving talent.

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions: Dez Bryant

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham ($5,000) – The Seahawks have a tough matchup this week vs the Jaguars who have 2 of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. This forces teams to pass across the middle of the field and utilizing TEs. Russ will be doing his homework and we should see alot of attempts to Jimmy G this week. He leads the NFL in red zone targets, and at $5,000 he is vastly underpriced this week.

Cameron Brate ($4,100) – Brate is loving having Winston back.  When in the RZ, Winston primarily looks towards Evans and Brate’s direction.  I love going back to Brate at $4,100 in a great matchup against the Lions (31st DVOA against the TE).

Hunter Henry ($4,600) – Henry is my go to play at tight end each week as his talent is abdsurd. The Chargers are finally starting to utilize Henry like they should.  Henry has seen 5+ targets in the last 3 games and gets a good matchup against the Redskins (23rd DVOA against the TE).

Stephen Anderson ($3,200) – Stephen Anderson was a WR in college at Texas A&M that has been converted to TE. Last week Anderson saw 11 targets, that he turned into 79 yards and a touchdown. He lines up outside and at the TE position, making him a great option for salary relief this week. I would expect him to see around 7 to 9 targets this week, not needing much to reach value at $3,200.

Also consider:

Late Week Additions: Trey Burton

Defense

Here are our favorite Defenses in play this weekend:

LA Chargers

Detroit Lions

Buffalo Bills

Indianapolis Colts


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