Week 16 Player Targets

QUARTERBACKS

The High-End Model ($6500+)

Russell Wilson ($7,000) – Recency bias is huge in the NFL, and everyone will be wanting to write off the Seahawks this week. Russ is a great GPP play and we will be able to get him under owned this week against a below average Dallas defense that ranks 27th DVOA against the pass. Baldwin gets a good matchup and will look to bounce back as well. I think Russ/Baldwin stack with Zeke coming back will be a solid GPP stack.

Cam Newton ($6,800) – Cam is averaging 60 yards rushing per game over his last 5 games, the floor on Cam is just insane. This week he matches up against the Buccaneers who rank dead last against the pass. Funchess let alot of people down last week, so I think if you play Cam he is a good option. However, I expect Cam to be the highest owned QB this week given the matchup.

Alex Smith ($6,600) – Smith is facing the Dolphins who rank 24th against the pass and the Chiefs are looking to ride their 2 game win streak. With all of the division games this week, I think it is a solid strategy to find the games that are out of division. This one falls in that category, and Smith has had success this year with games outside of the AFC West. You can stack Smith with Tyfreak or Kelce, and I even like stacking Smith with Hunt. I think he is a great GPP option this week.

Also consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6400)

Matt Stafford ($6,200) – The Lions are in the playoff hunt and they need to win this week against a struggling Bengals team that rank 25th DVOA against the pass. Last week the Vikings steam rolled the Bengals, this week Stafford and company have the chance to do the same. The Lions are a pass heavy team with Stafford averaging 36 pass attempts his last 4 weeks. Abdullah is out of the picture which has helped elevate Stafford’s floor. In GPP’s I like pairing Stafford with Marvin Jones who has big upside ability.

Also Consider:

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Also Consider:

Eli Manning ($5,200) – Eli has had 46 and 57 pass attempts the past 2 weeks, that is what we want for fantasy – volume. Now it may not be the most efficient volume but last week Sterling Shepard and Engram were heavily involved. This week the Giants face the Cardinals, so that means PatPete will be shutting down any WR he covers on the outside. This creates a good opportunity for Engram stacked with Eli this week in GPPs at a discount.

Late Week Additions: 

Running Backs

The High-End Model ($7000+)

LeSean Mccoy ($7,800) – Shady has been a workhorse for the Bills, he has averaged 25 touches his past 4 games. Last game against the Patriots he had 15 carries for 93 yards with 5 receptions as the Bills only put up 3 points. Shady has fared well receiving against the Patriots in previous matchups (having 3 receiving TDs in the past 4 matchups against the Pats), so look for him to continue this success. I think Shady is a great GPP play.

Ezekiel Elliott ($8,000) – Last week Todd Gurley put on a clinic against the injury ravaged Seahawks, posting 180 total yards and 4 TDs. Bobby Wagner (hamstring) and KJ Wright (concussion) are both banged up, and even if they both play they are not fully healthy. Zeke has been training in Cabo and he looks like he is in even better shape than beginning of the season. I have no idea where his ownership will be, but he will be in my core this week.

Also Consider:

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

Jordan Howard ($6,600) – Howard’s success relies on the Bears being competitive or having the lead. In games where the Bears have been ahead, Howard gets fed volume.  This week the Bears at 6.5 vegas favorites at home against the Browns. Running backs against the Browns are averaging 23 points and the team overall is giving up as they may go winless this year. Look for Howard to bounce back and get back in his groove, ownership should be low.

Dion Lewis ($6,000) – The Patriots lost Rex Burkhead last week with a knee sprain, so Dion Lewis will see the bulk of the carries this week against the Bills who hand out points to RBs since the departure of Marcell Dareus. The Bills are giving up the most points to RBs in the NFL, and Lewis will be seeing more than 15 carries in this game the Pats should lead. He is the value this week, and most likely chalk we will have to eat.

Also Consider: Kenyon Drake

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions:  

Wide Receivers

The High-End Model ($7000+)

Michael Thomas ($7,600) – If you have stayed on Thomas the last few weeks after a rocky start to the year, you have been happy.  The Saints are finally utilizing their WR1 and will have to put up points on Sunday to beat the Falcons.  Thomas had 30 DK points in his last matchup for Atlanta and should look to continue this surge.

Also consider:  Keenan Allen

Mid-sized Pricing, High Ceilings ($5500-$6900)

AJ Green ($6,700) – Hopefully everyone stays off Green after he got stuck on Rhodes closed.  Green now faces Detroit who just gave up 300+ yards to Trubisky.  Detroit is ranked 27th DVOA against the pass and Dalton will be looking to air it out to make up for last weeks dud.

Robert Woods ($6,500) – Woods is back as the Rams WR1.  Now a week healthier, Woods gets a matchup against a TEN defense that has been solid against the run and struggles against the pass.  If the Titans can find a way to somewhat(?) stop Gurley, Woods will likely be the main beneficiary.

Marvin Jones ($6,400) – Another WR that has been quiet lately that is due for a breakout game. CIN is ranked 25th DVOA against the pass.  Jones is going up against his former team which gives him extra motivation to burn them deep.

Mike Evans ($6,400) – Seems like every player that we target the upcoming week who played on Monday goes absolute ham.  Winston easily had his best game of the year against the Falcons.  Now playing a spoiler role, the Bucs will have to air it out to keep up with the resurgent Panthers offense.  I love a Cam – Olsen or Funchess – Evans stacl.

Also consider: Dede Westbrook

Hopefully We Can Use this Lemon to Make Lemonade (<$5500)

Keelan Cole ($4,700) – Last weeks darling should be on everyone’s radar again this week with Lee out.  If Hurns is out again this week I will be plugging Cole into my main lineup.  SF ranks 29th DVOA against the pass.  Cole can break free and put together a few long catches to easily surpass value.

Devonte Parker ($4,200) – Parker has been battling a high ankle sprain most of the year but he may be getting healthier. Last week he quietly was targeted 12 times, and had 89 receiving yards. The Chiefs pass defense ranks 30th, and Cutler has showed signs of hope against the Patriots.

Kendall Wright ($3,800) – Wright has quietly seen 10+ targets in his last 2 games and is only $3,800.  The Bears have realized the season is over and are starting to lift the reins on Trubisky.  Cleveland is middle of the pack in DVOA but I’ll take the amount of volume Wright is seeing at a reduced price.

Also Consider:

Late Week Additions: 

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($6,900) – Another week where it looks like paying up for TE makes sense leads me to Kelce against a Dolphins defense ranked 29th DVOA against the TE.  Kelce has seen unfortunate luck the past few weeks with touchdowns called back and Kareem Hunt showing up for playoffs.  Hopefully we can get Kelce at lower ownership than Gronk.

Evan Engram ($5,600) – You can’t argue with 10+ targets at only 5,600.  When you compare Engram to the WR’s in this same price range, Engram stands out.  The Cardinals have a stout run D which hopefully leads to Manning airing it out 50 times again.

Greg Olsen ($5,200) – Well, it looks as if Olsen being back eats into Funchess’ floor and ceiling.  Olsen saw 12 targets last week and gets a matchup against the 21st DVOA against the TE defense.  Olsen is a solid play at this price point.

Also consider: Rob Gronkowski

Late Week Additions: 

Defense

Here are our favorite Defenses in play this weekend:

Jaguars ($3,900)

Chargers ($3,700)

Bears ($3,500)

Chiefs ($3,300)

Lions ($2,900)

 


Leave a Reply