Each week we will break down the tournament field by pricing tiers and give our favorite cash & GPP Draftkings plays. We use advanced stats from FantasyNational.com to determine our plays of the week that correspond to the course and history of the event. We will continue to update our picks if news changes prior to the Draftkings contest start time on Thursday mornings.
Cash Core Picks
Justin Thomas ($11,100) – JT is coming off an incredible season for 2017, and is looking to defend his title here at Kapalua. While I will get this out right away, I prefer Spieth to JT because of the discount but JT is still a very strong option. JT fits the course well as he can hit it well off the tee with distance, and has the game around the green to pick up birdies. He should be very popular on DK scoring formats this week.
Jordan Spieth ($10,900) – Spieth has elite history playing at Kapalua, posting a first, second and third place finish in his 3 appearances. I am predicting Spieth to have slightly higher ownership than JT this week because of his elite course history and ability to score. Spieth fits the course nicely since he is a little streaky off the tee, but the wide fairways will help. His putting on bermuda is always a plus.
Brendan Steele ($7,400) – Targeting Steele in the West Coast swing is a +EV move. Steele finished 6th here last year and recently went back to back at the Safeway Open. Steele is one of my favorite golfers and this is the perfect price point to load up on his experience.
Kyle Stanley ($6,800) –With Spieth/JT priced as high as they are, we are going to need to find the right value picks. Stanley started hitting full steam last year and was our poster child for most of the year. In his last 36 rounds, Stanley is 11th in SG: Ball Striking in the field. With his putter holding him back, if he can just roll the rock he can be in contention here. As the 11th cheapest golfer, I love Stanley as a value pick this week.
Others to consider: Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm
GPP Core Plays
Patrick Cantlay ($8,600) – Cantlay made the most of his limited schedule last year and got his first victory last fall at the Shriners. He had 5 top 10 finishes and never missed a cut. Last season Cantlay ranked 10th in the field in DK scoring, 2nd overall in total strokes gained and 4th in ball striking. Cantlay is making his Kapalua debut and you should not be worried about him making his first appearance.
Daniel Berger ($8,200) – I think 2018 is going to be Berger’s coming out party and really establish himself with the elite golfers. Berger won the St Jude Classic in 2017 and had a pretty good year as a whole. Berger will be looking to try and make the 2018 Ryder Cup team and he will need to secure a win in order to stay in the running. Berger finished T14 last year at Kapalua, and came out strong in the first round shooting -5. Look for Berger to have a strong showing in Maui this week.
Pat Perez ($8,000) – As we mentioned above with Steele on the west coast, the same applies for PPerez. Perez won the CIMB Classic in Malaysia last year and has had success at Kapalua. Last year he finished T3 in his only appearance, but I am willing to ride his west coast golf game with his finish last year and insert him into my lineups. He will be a guy I sprinkle throughout my lineups where he fits, but not force him in.
Others to consider: Cam Smith, Russell Henley
With how small the field is, it is especially important to be contrarian this week in GPPs, so I highly recommend having several lower-owned players and/or leaving money on the table. Thus, here are my darts that should be around 10% owned or under:
Patton Kizzire ($7,300) – Kizzire ended the 2017 season in incredible form as he had 3 top-10 finishes in his last 4. In this field, over his last 8 rounds, he is 3rd in SG:Approach, 4th in Birdie or Better percentage, 8th in BA, and 10th in SG:T2G. Like with my next pick, he doesn’t have any course history here, but if he can carry over his 2017 form, he should have a great tournament.
Bryson DeChambeau ($7,000) – BDC had a very rough start to last year, but ended with 3 straight top-20 finishes (you can see that I’m focusing on recent form here). Over his last 8 rounds, he ranks an amazing 2nd in the field in the all-important SG:T2G category, 2nd in SG:APP, and 5th in Bogey Avoidance. He is another one that doesn’t have any course history here, but I’m willing to give him a shot. I’ll be praying that he starts 2018 the same way he ended 2017.
Others to consider: Ryan Armour