2018 Sony Open – Draftkings Picks

Each week we will break down the tournament field by pricing tiers and give our favorite cash & GPP Draftkings plays. We use advanced stats from FantasyNational.com to determine our plays of the week that correspond to the course and history of the event. We will continue to update our picks if news changes prior to the Draftkings contest start time on Thursday mornings.

 

 

Cash Core Picks

Charles Howell III ($8,900) –  CHIII is an absolute course horse.  He is a guy that you must play early on in the year before fatigue and injuries settle in. CHIII has 4 top 15’s in his last 4 tries here so he obviously loves the course. Howell missed the cut at the RSM so maybe? that will keep his ownership down in GPP’s.  I just don’t think that is the case as most people understand to play CHIII at the Sony Open and during the western swing.

Tony Finau ($8,900) – This is simply a terrible misprice from DK. Finau ranks 3rd in my Fantasy National model. In his last 36 rounds, Finau ranks 1st in SG:T2G and SG: OTT, 10th in BoB%, 16th in SG: App, and 20th in Par 4 scoring. At this price, the lock button might be necessary.

Chez Reavie ($8,000) – This is another player that I always play at this price point.  Reavie is a ball-striking animal and brings the consistency you need.  He may not win you the tournament, but does well enough to make your cash lineups hit by getting through the cut.  Reavie finished top 10 here last year so he can go low here.  In his last 36 rounds, Reavie ranks 10th in my model by finishing 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in SG: Putting, 18th in GIR%, and 31st in SG: App.  He may not be the longest off the tee but he sure is accurate.

Jason Dufner ($7,300) – How is a veteran, quality golfer like Dufner priced this low.  This is chalk that could be avoided.  However, when you have a mispriced player that can bring massive ownership, you likely need to have him in cash games.  If he MC, you aren’t far off as his high ownership can keep you in the money.  Dufner missed the cut here last year but brings a 9th place finish the year before.

Others to consider: Webb Simpson

GPP Core Plays

Daniel Berger ($8,700) – Last week Berger quietly put together a very solid 4 days of golf finishing T11 shooting -10 for the tourney. I am very bullish on Berger for the 2018 season as he ranks 2nd in SG:BS in the field and 3rd in SG: App for his last 50 rounds. He has made the cut each of his 3 appearances at Waialae with his best finish being a T13 3 years ago. People forget he is still 24 years old and has only been playing golf for just over 10 years. I am looking to use Berger early in the year before he reaches peak popularity this season.

JJ Spaun ($7,600) – Spaun missed the cut in his only appearnce at Waialae last year. In his last 24 rounds Spaun ranks 3rd in the field SG: T2G, 7th in ball striking, and 9th in SG: App. He has 3 top 15 finishes to start the 2018 season and I think he will continue to ride that success into Hawaii this week.

Jimmy Walker ($7,200) – The 2017 season was tough for Jimmy as he was diagnosed with Lymes disease and battling to fight fatigue much of the year. This really hampered his ability to practice and put in the extra work needed to be the golfer he was in recent years. Walker has had 2 wins at Waialae in the past 3 years, so I want to use him here in a spot I think people may take the wait and see approach. I look at this as a buy low opportunity for him right now.

Aaron Wise ($7,000) – I am expecting a big rookie season out for Aaron Wise who flashed in college at Oregon winning an NCAA title and last season as well with locking up his tour card. Wise ranks 17th in the field in ball striking and 11th in Draftkings scoring over the past 24 rounds. He has made 3 of his last 4 cuts in the 2018 season, posting 13th, 25th and 32nd place finishes. This is a guy I will sprinkle in my GPPs, and he is someone that can get talked up in the DFS community so we will have to monitor as the week goes on.

Others to consider: Zach Johnson, Gary Woodland, Ryan Armour

Contrarian Darts

Jason Kokrak ($7500) – Kokrak has played here 4 times before and has a pair of top-20 finishes while only missing the cut once. He also finished out the 2017 year in very solid form as he made 8 out of his last 9 cuts there. Over his last 12 rounds, he is 6th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in SG:T2G. While his BoB numbers leave something to be desired – 41st in the field – I like his chances of making the cut and getting another finish around 20th.

Ben Silverman ($6800) – Who? Silverman is definitely not a household name as he was on the Web.com tour for most of last year, but then played in 5 PGA events to end his year. Over those 5, he didn’t do much other than grab 2 top-10 finishes at Sanderson Farms and the RSM Classic while making the cut in two additional events. If we look at his numbers across his last 12 rounds, his BA is the only thing that really jumps out as he is 8th in the field, but his other numbers are also pretty solid as well: 15th in SG:T2G; 19th in BoB: 21st in SG:APP.

Stewart Cink ($6800) – As discussed with Dufner above, DK seems replete with mispricings this week. Cink is just a solid golfer who has plenty of course history here as he has only missed the cut once in his last 7 times. I wouldn’t expect that high of a finish as he has hasn’t ever gone above 20th, but you aren’t really looking for much more than a made cut at this price. His recent form is also decent as he ranks 1st in the field in SG:APP and 21st in SG:T2G.

Others to consider:


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