2018 Farmers Insurance – Draftkings Picks

Each week we will break down the tournament field by pricing tiers and give our favorite cash & GPP Draftkings plays. Brandon, Miles and Dan have also started picking our One and Done’s in this article. We use advanced stats from FantasyNational.com to determine our plays of the week that correspond to the course and history of the event. We will continue to update our picks if news changes prior to the Draftkings contest start time on Thursday mornings. Be sure to check the weather updates as well on our Course Preview article, we will also be updating the article with any necessary changes up until lineup lock. Cheers!

Cash Core Picks

Charles Howell III ($8,300) –  CHIII is an absolute course horse and an absolute steal at this price. We have said it every week and will say it again, CHIII is a guy that you must play early on in the year before fatigue and injuries settle in. CHIII has 3 top 10’s in his last 5 tries here so he obviously loves the course. Similar to last week, you load up on Howell as a cash game lock in the West Coast Swing as he is a cut maker early on before fatigue settles in.

Tony Finau ($8,700) – Finau is another player that should be priced about 1k higher. Finau ranks 5th in my custom model ranking 9th in SG:APP, 15th in Bogey Avoidance, 16th in GIR%, and 29th in SG:T2G and SG:OTT.  Finau has a 4th here last year and 3/3 in made cuts with no finish lower than 25th.

Brendan Steele ($7,800) – I feel like I am just copying and pasting my cash core picks on the west coast swing for the most part.  Steele has made his last 5 cuts here and is another player who excels on the West Coast.  Steele ranks 5th in SG:T2G and SG:OTT, 9th in GIR% and 38th in SG:APP.  As long as he can continue his excellent ball striking, Steele should make cut which is what you need in cash.

Gary Woodland ($8,600) – The longer course is definitely suitable for Woodland as he can bomb it.  He is another player who excels in this course going 5/5 for made cuts with 3 top 20’s in his last 5 tries.  Woodland ranks 4th in GIR% and 8th in SG:APP so he is similar to Steele in that if his ball striking is on, he should make it to see the weekend.

Others to consider:  Charley Hoffman, Marc Leishman, Kyle Stanley

GPP Core Plays

Rickie Fowler ($11,400) – Rickie has struggled at Torrey Pines the past few years and I think it was due to the insane travel from flying from Abu Dhabi the week prior. Well guess what, Rickie passed on Abu Dhabi this year and the paycheck. He finished T6 5 years ago so we know he can play here. His game fits the course perfect with being accurate and long off the tee, and he grew up in Cali so the Poa Anna greens shouldn’t bother him. I think Rickie is playing the best golf of his career and this will be a top 10 finish for him and he will be the lowest owned golfer in the $10,000+ range (because of his poor recent performance at Torrey).

Brandt Snedeker ($9,000) – Last week people were burned by Brandt missing the cut and we all know how real recency bias is when it comes to DFS. His ownership will be half what it was last week and this week you couldn’t ask for someone with better course history. Sneds has a win, 2nd and 9th place finish in his last 4 starts. He is a great putter on Poa Anna greens and I think he is a really solid GPP play this week.

Shane Lowry ($8,800) – Lowry is a ball striker than can play in the wind. He has sneaky good course history posting T7, T17 and T33 in his 3 appearances at Torrey. Over his last 50 rounds, Lowry ranks 9th Off the Tee,  7th in Good Drive % and 11th in GIR gained. I think Leishman and Finau will soak up the ownership around Lowry.

Lucas Glover ($7,100) – Glover is another great ball striker that will keep the ball on the fairways and hit greens, he just needs to get the flatstick going. Glover is coming in with great recent form and has not missed a cut since last June. He ranks 16th Off the Tee, 20th in Good Drives and 7th in GIRs. Look for Glover to stay out of trouble, make the cut and post a top 25.

Others to consider: Alex Noren, Martin Laird, Richy Werenski, Chad Campbell

Contrarian Darts

Quick note – when I refer to SG:BS below, it is Strokes Gained:Off the Tee (OTT) and Strokes Gained:Approach (APP) combined. This metric has had higher previous correlation with this course over either of the component stats.

Tom Hoge ($7,200) – I’ve talked about Hoge before in this space, and I’m going to do it again this week. He is 2-for-2 in cuts made so far this year, and he is also first overall in my model over his past 12 rounds. During this span, he ranks 4th in Bogey Avoidance, 5th in SG:APP, 5th in SG:BS, 8th in BoB, and 13th in SG:T2G. He is 0-for-2 in making cuts at Torrey Pines though, and I would not go all in here.

Jason Day ($9,400) – Day pulled out of the Pro Am today with a sore back after visibly struggling with his swing, and he hasn’t played in a tournament yet this year. He has also missed the cut here in back-to-back years. All of these things should cut down on his ownership quite a bit, and you will really have to monitor the situation closely in case he does withdraw before lock tomorrow (heck, there is the chance that he could WD after it as well). Outside of this though, he has a lot going for him. In 2013, ’14, and ’15, he finished here 9th, 2nd, and 1st respectively, so he clearly has excelled here in the past. It is really anyone’s guess how on point his game is right now after not playing for so long, but if we look at his last 12 rounds, he is 3rd in birdies, 19th in SG:BS, 23 in SG:APP, and 33rd in SG:T2G. This play is clearly not for the faint of heart, and I don’t recommend much exposure, but if you are max entering, you should definitely have at least a couple of lines with Day.

Bryson DeChambeau ($7,200) – Last year was the only time he played here and he missed the cut then, so obviously we only have limited and less than ideal course history here for BDC. He also played in Abu Dhabi last week, so that is a definite concern, but he missed the cut there, so he hypothetically has had longer to get over his jet lag. Either way, you will probably get him around 5% owernship and his recent stats warrant your consideration: 9th in SG:T2G, 21st in birdies, and 22nd in SG:BS.

Chesson Hadley ($6,800) – Hadley is another face familiar to this space. As previous readers know, he closed out 2017 with a bang. In his first tournament this year, last week’s CareerBuilder Challenge, he made the cut and finished a reasonable 42nd. Now, over his past 12 rounds, he ranks 3rd in SG:BS, 3rd in SG:APP, 4th in birdies, and 7th in SG:T2G, which places him pretty high in my model. He’s just another tournament dart that I recommend mixing into your core since he provides such great salary relief with very good recent stats.

Others to consider: James Hahn, JJ Spaun, Xander Schauffele

One and Done Picks

Dan’s OAD: Tony Finau

Brandon’s OAD: Gary Woodland

Miles’ OAD: Jon Rahm – this pick is kind of a gimme, and I won’t blame you if you want to save him for a tourney with a bigger pot. Personally, I already locked in Finau on Monday, but Dan already picked him here, so I don’t want to repeat. CH3 would be another option to consider, but I already used him in my OAD this year.


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