What a crazy week when you have to shoot -8 to make it through the cut. This will change this week as the birdie fest is gone. As you can see from the winners below, shooting 2 to 3 under par each day will give you a chance to take down the tourney. The course will be played at both Torrey Pines South (3 rounds) and Torrey Pines North (1 round). We will be eliminating birdie or better % from our key stats for the first time since last year as saving par on the tougher holes will be key to winning. This field is also LOADED. I remember last year the Farmers Insurance Open was free rake due to the field jumping on Tiger. We will continue to fade Tiger, especially at his current price, even though we want to see him succeed. We have been crushing our core cash picks and let’s keep that streak going. Time to take advantage of the fish.
2017: Jon Rahm -13
2016: Brandt Snedeker -6
2015: Jason Day -9
2014: Scott Stallings -9
2013: Tiger Woods -14
Torrey Pines South – Par 72 – 7,700Yards
This course is freaking LONG. At about 7,700 yards, this is one of the longer courses that the players will face throughout the year. This course has hosted the U.S. Open previously which is a testament to the difficulty of the course and the ball striking required to succeed. The fairways are tough to hit along with the greens so we are going to need to target the ball strikers that can also scramble. Per FutureOfFantasy, the greens on Torrey Pines are Poa Annua. This can be troublesome for many putters. Snedeker has traditionally putted well on Poa which has shown with his multiple victories here. (His recent injury struggles may keep us off him but could be a great pivot in GPPs). With difficult to hit fairways and greens, we are going to want to target the long, accurate hitters that can leave themselves with shorter approach shots.
Torrey Pines North – Par 72 – 7,250 Yards
We are going to need our players to score here. I wouldn’t get too tilted if your player played Torrey Pines South on Thursday and is outside the cutline as the scores will flip once players flop courses. When targeting players, we are going to focus on the stats that match up with Torrey Pines South as they will be playing 54 holes over there. However, the course has smaller greens and is a much shorter course than the South. We are going to need our plays to excel here to give us some cushion for some blowup holes on the South. The greens here are bentgrass so it will be interesting how players react to the different surfaces each day.
Key Stats Ranked
- SG: App
- Bogey Avoidance
- Good Drive %
As I write this weather update on Tuesday, we look to have a tee time advantage for those who will be out early on Thursday morning. Gusts and wind will be 15 mph later in the afternoon, and those playing the South course on Thursday are really going to be at a disadvantage. If you are picking between a group of golfers to roster, I would use their tee times and courses to be the tie breaker. This week we look to have an edge with the weather.