2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Player Picks

Each week we will break down the tournament field by pricing tiers and give our favorite cash & GPP Draftkings plays. Brandon, Miles and Dan have also started picking our One and Done’s in this article. We use advanced stats from FantasyNational.com to determine our plays of the week that correspond to the course and history of the event. We will continue to update our picks if news changes prior to the Draftkings contest start time on Thursday mornings. Be sure to check the weather updates as well on our Course Preview article, we will also be updating the article with any necessary changes up until lineup lock. Cheers!

Brandon’s Cash Core Picks

Brandon has decided to escape the icy climes of Minnesota to investigate the land of Disney this week with his family. As such, he won’t be able to write-up each picks, but here they are in all of their glory:

Patrick Cantlay ($8,900)

Pat Perez ($8,600)

Chesson Hadley ($8,500)

Kevin Streelman ($7,300)

Others to consider: Dustin Johnson, Austin Cook, Rafa Cabrera Bello

Dan’s GPP Core Plays

Dustin Johnson ($11,700) – DJ is my favorite golfer up top and he is also the most expensive. We have seen these top priced golfers go under owned because people feel they get a discount with taking Spieth or Rory for less. However, this week we have alot of misprices that make it even easier to get DJ into your lineup. I want to write him up in the case he is not as owned as he should be, because he is the best golfer in the world. DJ has 3 top 4 finishes in his last 4 starts here. I think he gets the win this year and he will be a staple in my lineups regardless of his ownership.

Paul Casey ($9,400) – I think Casey will be a low owned play this week due to 2 reasons: he has not played an event in months and he has not played Pebble Beach in tournament play. We see lower ownership because of one or the other, with the combination of both I would be very surprised if he was over 15% but if he is it is due to his sweet price tag. Casey is a ball striker that leads the field in SG: Approach over the last 50 rounds, 2nd in SG: Ball Striking and 4th SG: Tee to Green.

Shane Lowry ($7,500) – This guys game matches up exactly with the strengths needed to succeed at Pebble Beach. Lowry has 3 appearances at Pebble posting T14, T41 and T21 finishes. Lowry ranks 20th in DK scoring, 21st in SG: Ball Striking, 14th SG: Off the Teeand 61st in SG: Approach over the past 50 rounds. If it gets windy we know Lowry can handle the elements as well.

Bryson Dechambeau ($6,900) – I was shocked at BDC ownership this past week at Waste Management when he came in at 1% owned. I am not expecting that again this week, but he should not get over 10%. BDC ranks 17th in the field in DK points, 16th SG: T2G, 19th in SG: Ball Striking, 17th SG: OTT and 34th in SG: Approach. He made his first appearance at Pebble last year and missed the cut, that does not concern me at all.

Ryan Armour ($6,900) – Here is a guy that is a great ball striker but cannot putt. Armour ranks 35th in DK scoring, 23rd in SG: Ball Striking, 17th in SG: Approach and 37th in SG: Around the Green. He is one of my favorite GPP plays on Draftkings this week, and has played this course 2 times prior missing the cut and finishing T29.

Others to consider: Russell Henley

Contrarian Darts

Just as a reminder, our numbers might be slightly different as we all look at different time periods (I generally look at the short side and focus on a player’s last 12 rounds).

Jimmy Walker ($7700) – Walker is only 1/4 on cuts made this year, but he did make his last one and looked much better during the second round of the CareerBuilder. He also reported earlier in the year that he is starting to feel better from his crippling bout with Lyme disease last year, so I’m thinking that he actually is starting to come back into form. Either way, he will have minuscule ownership and I’m willing to roll the dice for his talent at this price. Oh yeah, he also has awesome course history here. With his illness last year, he easily had his worst finish ever of 55th, but he finished top-21 in each of his other 6 years here while going top-10 four times.

Russell Knox ($6700) – Knox’s course history is less stellar than Walker, but it’s hard to compete with that. He does have a pair of top-30’s though – as well as a pair of MC’s – and he comes to this year’s even in great recent form. In my model, he is 2nd in GIRs gained, 8th in SG:T2G and BA, and 15th in SG:BS. His recent birdies leave something to be desired though, which I never like to see.

Scott Piercy ($7000) – Piercy has never finished higher than 55th here, but he has absolutely crushed it over his past 12 rounds. During this span, he is 3rd in SG:T2G, 9th in GIRs gained, 10th in SG:BS, and 13th in BoB Gained.

Tom Hoge ($6600) – Hoge is another cheap option this week that has phenomenal recent form. He clocks in at 3rd in SG:BS, 5th in SG:T2G, 7th in Bogey Avoid, and 15th in GIRs gained. He is also 2/3 for making cuts here over his career, so I definitely feel like he is one of the best cheap options on the board. In general, I do see a lot of people going stars-and-scrubs this week due to all of the cheap golfers, so we will really have to hit on the under-owned ones.

Others to consider: Kevin Chappell, Sam Saunders, Chez Reavie (probably won’t be as low-owned as I would like, but I’m loading up anyway)

One and Done Picks

Dan’s OAD: Chesson Hadley / Paul Casey (alternate pick)

Brandon’s OAD: Pat Perez

Miles’ OAD: Gary Woodland / Chez Reavie (alternate pick)


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