Each week we will break down the tournament field by pricing tiers and give our favorite cash & GPP Draftkings plays. Brandon, Miles and Dan have also started picking our One and Done’s in this article. We use advanced stats from FantasyNational.com to determine our plays of the week that correspond to the course and history of the event. We will continue to update our picks if news changes prior to the Draftkings contest start time on Thursday mornings. Be sure to check the weather updates as well on our Course Preview article, we will also be updating the article with any necessary changes up until lineup lock. Cheers!
Brandon’s Cash Core Picks
Jason Dufner ($8,600) – Duff daddy has made his last 4 cuts here with two top 20 finishes. He has also been off to a solid start this year and hasn’t missed a cut since the U.S. Open last year. For mid-price, he is a guy you can anchor your cash lineups around.
Chesson Hadley ($7,700) – Those not playing DFS may not be familiar with Hadley. However, the DFS community is sharp and knows the talent Hadley has. Hadley ranks 1st in SG:App and 9th in GIR% in the last 24 rounds. This is to go with 27th SG:T2G and SG:OTT. I love Hadley this week.
Martin Kaymer ($8,000) – I am going to be balanced with my lineups this week. Kaymer seems too cheap this week. Kaymer is 23rd in SG:T2G and SG: OTT. Kaymer is has made 3 of his last 4 cuts here with a 4th place finish last year.
Adam Scott ($7,700) – I can’t believe I am writing this. I came into the year saying I would FADE SCOTT all year. However, his ball striking is still elite. The wind is going to be howling. I am praying that his putter somewhat shows up as he cannot put any worse than he has lately. Scott has made all 3 cuts here with all of them being top 15’s.
Others to consider:
Dan’s GPP Core Plays
Tyrrell Hatton ($9,500) – A theme for me this week is going to be targeting foreign players (at lower ownership) that are elite ball strikers. Last year Hatton finished T4 at the Honda Classic and also had a 4th place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational which has similar hazards with wind. Hatton ranks 12th in SG: Ball Striking, 9th in SG: Off the tee and 14th SG: Tee to Green over his last 50 rounds.
Daniel Berger ($8,800) – I prefer that Berger missed the cut last week and got back early to his home just a few miles from PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens. Berger grew up in West Palm Beach and can play in the wind and knows bermuda greens and rough like the back of his hand. Berger ranks 13th SG: Ball Striking, 17th SG: T2G and 13th SG: Approach over his last 50 rounds. He is going to keep the ball in the fairways off the tee and give himself a chance for birdie opportunities.
Kevin Kisner ($8,500) – Kisner is another guy that finished well last year at Bay Hill who almost won over Leishman and placing 2nd. Kisner has made 3 of 3 cuts at the Honda Classic but never finished in the top 20. Kisner has the short game and putting on bermuda to really put up some good number as he ranks 5th in SG: putting and 16th SG: Short Game over his last 50 rounds.
Russell Henley ($7,700) – Henley has not had a good start to the 2018 season, missing cuts at the Sony Open and Waste Management. However, he had a similar start to the 2017 season and won the Shell Houston a few weeks after Honda last year and really strung together some good golf over February and March. Henley is an elite ball striker that struggles around the greens. His recent missed cuts should lower his ownership and he tends to play tougher courses very well.
Emilliano Grillo ($7,500) – Grillo excelled on Florida courses last season, finishing 11th at The Players and 7th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Grillo ranks 20th in SG: Ball Striking and 14th SG: Off the Tee over his last 50 rounds, and will keep the ball in play. It is just a matter of his short game aligning and making putts.
Others to consider: Patton Kizzire, Bernd Weisberger, Byeong Hun An, Russell Knox
Just as a reminder, our numbers might be slightly different as we all look at different time periods (I generally look at the short side and focus on a player’s last 12 rounds).
Scott Stallings ($8000) – Stallings does not do great in windy conditions or on Bermuda greens, so tread carefully here, but he does have 2 top-30 finishes here and has made the cut 75% of the time. He ranks 4th in my recent form model this week as he has 3 top-25 finishes this month with an eye-popping 2nd in BA, 5th in BoB Gained, 13th in SG:T2G, and 17th in SG:BS. I do expect him to be owned at around 15% after his amazing February, so he probably does not officially count as a “contrarian dart.”
Sergio Garcia ($10,500) – I know Labs projects Sergio’s ownership to be quite high, but I’m not sold on this. I think we will find a lot of people flocking to Rory, JT, Fowler, and even Noren, which leaves Garcia as the odd man out. I could be dead wrong about this, but I’m going to have stupid amounts of Garcia regardless as he has elite course history – including 2 top-10s and another 2 top-20s. He also has excellent recent form as he clocks in at 5th in Scrambling, 5th in GIRs gained, 16th in SG:BS, and 16th in SG:T2G. Yes please.
Ryan Palmer ($7300) – Palmer has made the cut here in each of his last 6 appearances and has finished in the top-30 four times over this span. He also ranks quite highly in my model this week as he stands 6th in SG:BS, 10th in SG:T2G, and 16th in BoB Gained. Palmer also excels in windy conditions, and Bermuda is by far his favorite surface to putt on. Put this all together and you have someone with excellent course history at a cheap price and who is in very good recent form.
Ian Poulter ($7200) – Poulter is 4-for-4 in making cuts here and has placed in the top-50 each time along with one 3rd place finish. He hasn’t played much this year and his recent stats don’t stand out, but he had a very solid year last year on some very tough courses (2nd at The Players, 3rd at the Scottish Open, 3rd at the Canadian Open, and 11th at The Heritage are some notable finishes). Simply put, he should be priced much higher on every site and I will definitely roll him out quite a bit.
Others to consider: CH3, Louis Oosthuizen, Scott Piercy, Billy Ho (thanks to BG and DW for talking me onto him)
One and Done Picks
Dan’s OAD: Martin Kaymer / Sergio Garcia (alternate pick)
Brandon’s OAD: Tommy Fleetwood
Miles’ OAD: Sergio Garcia / Adam Scott