2018 WGC Mexico Draftkings Picks

Each week we will break down the tournament field by pricing tiers and give our favorite cash & GPP Draftkings plays. Brandon, Miles and Dan have also started picking our One and Done’s in this article. We use advanced stats from FantasyNational.com to determine our plays of the week that correspond to the course and history of the event. We will continue to update our picks if news changes prior to the Draftkings contest start time on Thursday mornings. Be sure to check the weather updates as well on our Course Preview article, we will also be updating the article with any necessary changes up until lineup lock. Cheers!

Brandon’s Core Picks

Without a cut this week, I am changing this from a “Cash” core pick area to the core picks of my GPP rosters.  I do not like playing cash games in these types of tournaments as you lose the edge from finding guys to make the cut.

Paul Casey ($8,400) – This price is EGREGIOUS.  I am going to hit the lock button Casey this week.  Casey ranks 1st in my model coming in at 4th in SG:APP, 5th in GIR%, 7th in SG:T2G and SG:OTT, and 9th in BoB%.  Casey is my pick of the week.

Patrick Cantlay ($8,700) – Until Cantlay gets priced in the upper 9k’s, I will be playing him every tournament.  Cantlay is an excellent ball striker shown by his recent form.  Cantlay comes in 3rd in GIR%, 8th in SG:T2G and SG:OTT BoB% and 14th in SG:APP.  I will be heavily invested in Cantlay.

Tony Finau ($8,500) – I am going to be balanced with my lineups this week.  Finau seems too cheap this week given his recent form.  Finau has 2 top 10’s in his last 3 tournaments. He ranks 3rd in SG:APP and GIR%, 7th in SG: Par 4, and 13th in BoB%.

Alex Noren ($8,800) – Noren is a pure ball striker.  This is what I’m looking for this week as players need to be able to adjust their distances to the elevation.  This will bring out the best ball strikers who are dialed in on their approaches.  Noren ranks 6th in GIR%, 8th in SG:APP, and 12th in BoB% and Par 4 scoring.

Others to consider:

Dan’s GPP Core Plays

Jordan Spieth ($10,500) – People all of a sudden think of Jordan as just an average golfer that has lost his touch around the greens. Recency bias is a big thing in DFS golf and there is no reason to fade him this week at low ownership and actually comes up first in my FantasyNational model. Spieth ranks first in the field in Bogey Avoidance, SG: T2G and Par 4 scoring from 350-400 yards. I expect his ownership to be around 10-15% this week. Remember, this is golf and has very high variance, there is huge leverage to be had this week with Spieth on a course he can avoid using his driver.

Ross Fisher ($8,200) – Ross Fisher is on his way to becoming a world class golfer. He spends most of his time on the Euro Tour, last year Fisher placed 3rd in this event and his ball striking was a big factor in his scucess. He gained 6 strokes Tee to Green and also  gained 6 strokes on his Approach. Look for Fisher to have a lot of birdie opportunities and keeping his ball in the fairways for the week. He should see lower ownership with having less name recognition for the casual golf crowd.

Brendan Steele ($7,500) – Steele is normally a popular option but in a deeper field I think his ownership is lower than we are used to. Steele decided not to play Honda last week so he has some time to rest prior to this WGC event. Steele can score as we have seen this year, posting -15 at Waste Mgmt, -14 at Career Builder, -12 at CIMB and -15 at Safeway. Steele can give up some bogeys but is a birdie machine, which  at this price will easily pay off his salary with his scoring on Draftkings.

Joost Luiten ($7,300) – Joost is another Euro Tour golfer that will go under the radar this week. He won 2 weeks ago at the NBO Open and placed 11th at the Maybank Championship. Joost is a solid ball striker that will need to putt well in order to put himself in contention. I am guessing to see 5% ownership on him this week.

Others to consider: Jhonny Vegas, Kyle Stanley

Contrarian Darts

Just as a reminder, our numbers might be slightly different as we all look at different time periods (I generally look at the short side and focus on a player’s last 12 rounds).

Kevin Chappell ($8,100) – Chappell did not fare well here last year as he finished a miserable 55th, but I’m hoping that he can rebound this year and his recent form looks on point. He finished 8th at Pebble Beach and then 20th at the Genesis, while then skipping over the Honda last week, which I think should help him here. He’s overall 1st in SG:T2G, 3rd in SG:BS, and 9th in Bogey Avoidance.

Bernd Wiesberger ($7,100) – I don’t love this pick as I don’t know if he can put up the numbers to take down a GPP for you, but he will go very low-owned (I’m guessing right around 3%), and his recent form is surprisingly solid for this price. He ranks 15th in GIRs gained, 16th in Par 5 Scoring, and 20th in SG:T2G, but a lowly 51st in BoB Gained, which is why I’m worried about his upside.

Chez Reavie ($8,100) – Reavie is going wildly overlooked this week as I think a lot of people are looking at the others in his price range – * cough Casey cough * – and he really shouldn’t be as he ranks 14th in my recent form model. He is 3rd in BA, 7th overall in SG:T2G, 12th in BoB Gained, 17th in Par 5 Scoring, and 20th in SG:BS. He also badly needs the points from this event as he is hovering right around 50th in the World Rankings.

Others to consider: Hao-Tong Li, Bubba, Hatton

One and Done Picks

Dan’s OAD: Ross Fisher / Jon Rahm (alternate pick)

Brandon’s OAD:  Thomas Pieters

Miles’ OAD: Tommy Fleetwood / Paul Casey (alternate pick)

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