2018 Valspar Championship Picks

Each week we will break down the tournament field by pricing tiers and give our favorite cash & GPP Draftkings plays. Brandon, Miles and Dan have also started picking our One and Done’s in this article. We use advanced stats from FantasyNational.com to determine our plays of the week that correspond to the course and history of the event. We will continue to update our picks if news changes prior to the Draftkings contest start time on Thursday mornings. Be sure to check the weather updates as well on our Course Preview article, we will also be updating the article with any necessary changes up until lineup lock. Cheers!

Brandon’s Cash Core Picks

Jason Dufner ($7,800) – I don’t know what Draftkings has against Dufner, but he is ALWAYS too cheap.  I would expect him to be 700-800 more putting him in the Webb Simpson range.  Dufner has made his last 5 cuts here, all 25 or better.  The reason for this is that Dufner is an accurate ballstriker that can keep himself out of trouble.  I’m going to ignore his struggles in Mexico as Dufner was solid at the Honda Classic.  The greens in Mexico exposed his putting woes but he should be fine this week.  All you need him to do is make the cut in cash games.

Adam Hadwin ($8,800) – Hadwin won this tournament last year and is playing quality golf. Hadwin ranks 7th in Par 4 scoring, 14th in fairways gained, 16th in GIR%, and 18th in bogey avoidance.  Those are all key statistics that can take him to the top of the leaderboard this week.

Kevin Streelman ($7,500) – Also a former winner, Streelman is suprising the top of my model over at Fantasy National.  Streelman ranks 1st in GIR% and Bogey avoidance, 4th in fairways gained, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, and 12th in SG: T2G.  I love Streelman this week.

Tony Finau ($9,400) – I am very bullish on Finau’s long-term outlook.  He is a very solid ballstriker and had a nice Florida swing last year placing 5th at Valspar and 28th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.  Finau is second in my model and ranks 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in GIR%, 7th in SG. APP, 11th in Bogey Avoidance, and 13th in SG: T2G.  I will continue to play Finau as he will win a tournament here soon when he can put 4 rounds together.

Also Consider: Chez Reavie, Matt Kuchar, Byeong Hun-An

Dan’s GPP Core Plays

Zach Johnson ($7,700) – ZJ has not played a full 2018 season this year, but in the few events he has appeared he has 4 top 20 finishes in 6 events for 2018. ZJ ranks 8th in Bogey Avoidance, 15th in GIR gained, and 16th in Good Drives over his past 50 rounds. ZJ has one appearance here in 2103 with a MC, nothing to worry about, this will only suppress his ownership further.

Bryson Dechambeau ($7,400) – Bryson has seen some surprisingly low ownership this season that has caught me off guard. He is coming off 3 solid tournaments including a top-5 finish at Waste Mgmt and has been very good around the greens. Dechambeau ranks top 25 in the field for SG: off the tee, GIR gained, SG: T2G and Par 4 scoring over 400 yards. I expect his ownership to be sub 10% this week, hopefully we get him even lower.

Chesson Hadley ($7,400) – Chesson was brutal at Honda 2 weeks ago, and it does not concern me one bit. He played 5 straight weeks in a row, making the cut in each tournament and having to fly across country and deal with the wind at Honda. I will give him a pass this time, but even still over his past 50 rounds he ranks 7th in SG: App, 16th in SG: Ball Striking, 3rd in proximity from 175 to 200 yards and 16th in Par 4 scoring from over 400 yards. He will be low owned due to the recency bias, no need to worry as he has made each cut in his 3 appearances at Valspar.

Lucas Glover ($7,300) – Glover could be a sleeper this week that makes some noise. He is having a great season making 8 of 9 cuts this year and posting some high finishes. Glover recently finished 17th at Honda and ranks 15th in SG: off the tee, 9th in GIR gained, 10th in bogey avoidance, 6th in scrambling and 7th in Par 4 scoring over 400 yards. I will be rostering the Glove in GPP’s this week, just get ready for those 3 putts.

Others to consider: Luke List, Ross Fisher, Russell Knox, Aaron Wise

Contrarian Darts

Just as a reminder, our numbers might be slightly different as we all look at different time periods (I generally look at the short side and focus on a player’s last 12 rounds).

Scott Stallings ($7,300) – I’m going to start off with a true dart throw as Stallings has 5 MCs and a 68th, which is obviously pretty awful. He also has a 3rd place finish here in 2011. Either way, he has 4 straight top-30 finishes this year, and is 7th in BoB Gained, 12th in Bogey Avoidance, and 19th in long Par 4’s over his last 12. While he does rank 10th in my model this week, his ball-striking is a little concerning as he is only 34th in SG:T2G, 41st in SG:BS, and 55th in GIRs Gained.

Keegan Bradley ($7,000) – Keegz’ course history is far from stellar as he has 2 MCs and one finish of 58th to his name, but oh my goodness his ball-striking has been on point over his last 12 rounds. He’s 1st in SG:T2G, 1st in SG:BS, 1st in SG:APP, and 5th in GIRs Gained. He also has an early tee time tomorrow, which should give him an advantage after Day 1, and I’m definitely going to have a decent smattering at this price tag.

Ryan Palmer ($7,400) – Palmer is 3/4 in making the cut here, but he has never finished better than 30th, so I’m not sure if he has GPP-winning upside. Other than that concern, his recent form fits this course very well and ranks 13th in my model this week as he stands 9th in SG:BS, 12th in SG:T2G, and 23rd in BoB Gained.

CH3 ($7,400) – After missing the cut at Honda and finishing only 37th at Genesis, I feel like a lot of people have soured on CH3, but everyone should just CHIII out (see what I did there?). His course history is impeccable as he has only missed the cut one and has finished 49th, 5th, 10th, 14th, 28th, and 2nd here, so I think he has massive upside. He also ranks 24th in my model this week with an elite 3rd in the almighty SG:T2G, 4th in SG:BS, and 4th in GIRs Gained. He does rank only 68th in BoB Gained, but I’m betting he turns it around here.

Others to consider: BDC, Ollie, C-Hoff

One and Done Picks

Dan’s OAD: Ben An / Henrik Stenson (alternate)

Brandon’s OAD:  Kevin Streelman

Miles’ OAD: Ben An / Paul Casey

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