Each week we will break down the tournament field by pricing tiers and give our favorite cash & GPP Draftkings plays. Brandon, Miles and Dan have also started picking our One and Done’s in this article. We use advanced stats from FantasyNational.com to determine our plays of the week that correspond to the course and history of the event. We will continue to update our picks if news changes prior to the Draftkings contest start time on Thursday mornings. Be sure to check the weather updates as well on our Course Preview article, we will also be updating the article with any necessary changes up until lineup lock. Cheers!
Brandon’s Cash Core Picks
Francesco Molinari ($7,300) – Francescoooooooo, that’s fun to say. Francesco isn’t going to win a birdie-fest tournament. However, his price of $7,300 is perfect for a guy that can give you a top 10 finish. Molinari is a course horse making 5/5 cuts with 3 top 10’s. He ranks 9th in SG: Tee to Green and SG: OTT, and 11th in GIR%. What he lacks in distance, he makes up for with precision. Load up on the Italian Stallion.
Adam Scott ($8,700) – As long as Scott stays in this range I will keep loading up. Scott is 3 for 3 in cuts here with a third and 12th place finish. Scott rankes 2nd in GIR%, 10th in SG:T2G and SG:OTT, 11th in SG:APP and 38th in BoB%. Let’s see him make it 4 for 4 in cuts made.
Zach Johnson ($7,700) – Another player that makes cut yet isn’t priced where he should be. ZJ has a great showing last week at the Valspar and should continue this week in a course that he has made his last 5 cuts with 2 top 10’s.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,500) – Fleetwood is probably my favorite golfer right now so this may be a bias pick. He finished 10th here last year and is third in my model. Fleetwood ranks 2nd in SG:T2G and SG:OTT, 16th in GIR%, and 17th in BOB%.
Dan’s GPP Core Plays
Henrik Stenson ($9,100) – Stenson lives right next to Bayhill and missed the cut last year to scar alot of DFS souls. Stenson is coming off a missed cut from Valspar that will help suppress ownership but we need to look past just 2 rounds at a tough course. Stenson ranks top 5 in the field in SG: Approach, GIR gained, Bogey Avoidance and Good Drive %. There is nothing wrong with Stenson when you look at the big picture.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat ($7,900) – The BarnRat has an outstanding course history at Bay Hill posting two 6th place finishes in only two appearances. He is coming off a 5th place finish at WGC Mexico and played at Honda to make the cut as well. His stats are tough to gauge since he does not play much on the PGA Tour over a larger sample size, but I like him as a dart throw this week at low ownership.
Kyle Stanley ($7,200) – Stanley was our guy last year and this season we have seen his ownership suppressed compared to what I would expect. Stanley is an excellent ball striker and keeps the ball out of trouble. He ranks top 10 in the field in SG: Off the Tee, GIR Gained and Good Drive % over his last 50 rounds.
Russell Knox ($7,600) – Knox has been solid this 2018 season posting 4 top 15 finishes. He heads into API coming off a 16th place finish at Valspar and his game aligns well with Bay Hill. Knox ranks top 15 in GIR Gained, Proximity from 175 to 200 yards and Good Drive %. I expect him to be in the 15% ownership range and I plan to leverage my ownership in GPPs to be overweight.
Sam Burns ($7,200) – Burns has been on fire this season and the youngster is starting to quietly gain attention. Burns is coming off an 8th place finish at Honda and 12th place at Valspar. He ranks near the top 50 in almost every key stat we are looking at this week. Look to get him at sub 10% owned this week in GPPs as he fits Florida courses very well.
Others to consider:
While I normally look at just a player’s past 12 rounds, I feel like my DFS game has been off over the past couple of week, so I’m going to increase the dataset a little. Thus, I’m going to look at a player’s past 5 tournaments instead (these stats are from https://fntsyjesus.com/ and they are free, so feel free to play around with them if you don’t have a subscription to Fantasy National).
James Hahn ($7600) – Hahn does not have a great history here as he has 2 MC’s and one 49th, but he’s currently in really great form with 3 straight top-30’s and 6 straight top-50’s. His stats back up this solid play as well. He ranks 1st in SG:T2G, 8th in SG:BS, and 5th in Birdie or Better (remember, we have to take people that will score).
Jason Kokrak ($8,000) – Just like with the next golfer I’m going to talk about, I feel like people will gravitate towards other players within the same price range. Either way, he is incredibly ranked 7th in my model this week as he has been very solid in all of the stats I’m looking at. While he is only 18th in SG:BS, he is 9th in SG:T2G, 12th in BoB, 14th in BA, and 11th in Par 5 Scoring. His course history is also surprisingly stellar as he has two top-10’s and another 20th to his name.
Bubba Watson ($8,600) – Let me begin by saying that I have no idea what Bubba’s ownership will be like here. On one hand, he has 2 top-10’s in a row including that win at the Genesis along with great course history here, but on the other, I think that a lot of DFS players will gravitate towards other players in this price range like Leishman, Sneds, or Scott over him. Over his past 5 rounds, he is actually my model’s #1 this week. He’s 3rd in BoB, 1st in Bogey Avoidance, 2nd in SG:BS, and 8th in SG:T2G. Let’s also circle back to that course history I mentioned earlier. While he hasn’t played here much recently, he utterly dominated this course earlier in the decade as he finished 24th, 4th, and 14th respectively in 2011, 2012, and 2013.
Scott Piercy ($7500) – Piercy is another guy with excellent ball-striking stats as he stands 1st in SG:BS and 5th in SG:T2G. He’s only 20th in BoB, which is good, but not great, and his Par 5 Scoring has me worried as he ranks a lowly 80th there. He also has missed the cut in all 3 of his appearances here, so go light if you decide to play him.
Others to consider: Kevin Streelman, Kyle Stanley
One and Done Picks
Dan’s OAD: Beyoung An / Marc Leishman (alternate)
Miles’ OAD: Noren / Chappell
Bet(s) of the Week
Just as an FYI, Dan and Brandon use Bovada while Miles uses Nitrogen.
Miles’ Bet(s): Noren @ -106 versus Hatton (-117)