The GOAT is back. Congrats to Casey on getting his first victory in FOREVER. He is finally the bride and not the bridesmaid. Valspar had to have enjoyed their ratings spike with Tiger being in contention all weekend. This week we come to an event honoring the great Arnold Palmer Invitational that Tiger has won 8 times. Yes, 8 TIMES. Let’s rock and roll!
- 2017: Marc Leishman -11
- 2016: Jason Day -17
- 2015: Matt Every -19 2x
- 2014: Matt Every -13
- 2013: Tiger Woods -13 8x
Bay Hill – 7,381 yards / Par 7
Bay Hill is a Par 72 that plays at 7,381 yards with over 100 bunkers and 9 holes with water in play. Greens are the typical Bermuda grass that we find at all the courses in Florida. It is important to note that these greens were reseeded two years ago to improve the quality as there were complaints that they were “aesthetically weak.” There are four Par 5’s on the course and a majority are reachable. This has led to Bay Hill generally being the lowest scoring course on the Florida swing.
There are a few key statistics that we will be emphasizing this week. With four Par 5’s at Bay Hill, we want to target players that will have excellent Par 5 scoring. Most of these par 5’s are reachable. This means we should target the players that can put themselves in position for those eagles we are looking for in Draftkings scoring.
Another key statistic that we have really been emphasizing in the Florida swing is SG: Tee to Green. We want the ball strikers that come into the tournament in great recent form for SG: Tee to Green. This shows that the players are excelling in all aspects of the game from Off the Tee, Approach, and Around the Green. With the difficult to hit greens, it will be important to target the superior ball strikers.
As we mentioned earlier, Bay Hill is generally the lowest scoring of the Florida swing. This may not be the case this year as the wind has decided not to show up at the Honda Classic and the players are tearing up the Snake Pit at the Valspar Championship. Since the scores will be low, we want to target players that have good Birdie or Better % (BoB%).
The final statistic that we are looking at is the Proximity > 200 as there will be plenty of long iron shots. The players that are hitting the long irons well will put themselves in great looks for birdies and eagles.
Hole #4 : Par 5, 561 yards
The fourth hole is a Par 5 that measures 561 yards. It plays uphill with uneven fairways and water running along the right side of the fairway. It is reachable in two for the bombers. Players that cannot reach in two need to avoid the pair of bunkers on the left side of the fairway. Regardless of whether you go for the green in two or not, the green is very narrow in depth. Accuracy is a must into this elevated target just to reach par, but birdies are available for the ball strikers.
Hole #6 : Par 5, 555 yards
This sixth hole par 5 is demanding for every shot as you approach the green. This hole has spelled disaster for players over the years. It once took 18 strokes to get the ball in the cup for John Daly years ago. It is tough to reach the green in two due to the heavy curving dogleg. We are going to want to target guys that hit fairways and long irons accurately this week.
Hole #18 : Par 4, 458 yards
Hole 18 is a par 4 that runs 458 yards to finish the round. There is OB along the entire left side and water that creeps into the right side in front of the green. If players miss the fairway right it is a scary second shot at the green over the water. The smart play is to layup towards the left front of the green.
Key Stats Ranked
- SG: T2G
- SG: Approach
- SG: Ball Striking
Nothing to worry about weather this week. Winds are going to be low and we will be having plenty of sun.