Each week we will break down the tournament field by pricing tiers and give our favorite cash & GPP Draftkings plays. Brandon, Miles and Dan have also started picking our One and Done’s in this article. We use advanced stats from FantasyNational.com to determine our plays of the week that correspond to the course and history of the event. We will continue to update our picks if news changes prior to the Draftkings contest start time on Thursday mornings. Be sure to check the weather updates as well on our Course Preview article, we will also be updating the article with any necessary changes up until lineup lock. Cheers!
Brandon’s Cash Core Picks
Jordan Spieth ($10,400) – It’s difficult not starting a cash lineup with Spieth’s history here and lower price tag on him than we have seen in a while. In Spieth’s 4 trips to Augusta, he has a victory, 2 runner ups, and an 11th. Spieth ranks 5th in my custom model coming in at 5th in SG:App, 11th in SG:T2G, 15th in GIR%, and 19th in Good Drives. If he can get that putter out look out for victory #2.
Justin Rose ($9,200) – This pricing is SOFT. Rose at $9,200 is an absolute steal. Rose is second in strokes gained at Augusta the last 5 years, with 4 straight top 15’s. He will be a staple in my lineups.
Paul Casey ($8,800) – I have a rule. Whenever Casey is in a tournament sub 9k, you lock him in. Casey has 3 straight top 6 finishes here at Augusta. Casey also ranks 2nd in my custom model coming in 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 6th in GIR%, 10th in Good Drive %, and 12th in SG:APP.
Sergio Garcia ($8,600) – Garcia named his daughter Azalea. Do I need to say anything more? The baby swag is real. Sergio also ranks 4th in my custom model coming in 1st in SG:App, 4th in GIR%, and 7th in Good Drives %.
Dan’s GPP Core Plays
Alex Noren ($8,100) – Noren has made a statement this year by spending the entire months of February and March in the states to prepare for the Masters. In that time Noren has top 3 at Farmers and Honda with deeper fields. Noren is one of the best players around the green and I expect him to go under owned (relative to his talent) with a more casual fan filled contests this week.
Webb Simpson ($7,300) – Webb has really improved his putting this season and you need it for Augusta. Webb ranks top 10 in the field over his last 50 rounds in Scrambling, Bogey Avoidance and SG: Approach, all of which are very important this week. He is in a price range where there are alot of options to choose from and for that reason I believe he is a great GPP play.
Zach Johnson ($7,000) – Augusta is a course that fits ZJ’s game perfectly as he can place the ball strategically around the course and has the short game to take advantage of scoring opportunities. ZJ ranks top 10 in the field in Good Drive %, SG Approach and Bogey Avoidance over his last 50 rounds. He will avoid posting the big score that takes him out of contention and can score on the Par 4’s and 5’s. ZJ is another guy like Webb that is priced in a range with alot golfers to roster.
Chez Reavie ($6,600) – Chez has been our guy this year and he has struggled his last few tournaments but if you look at his last 50 rounds there is nothing to worry about. Chez comes in ranked 21st in my model and at a steep discount of $6,600. He ranks 5th in Bogey Avoidance and 4th in Good Drive %, and also top 25 in GIR, Scrambling and Proximity from 200 yards over his last 50 rounds. Chez is my flier at sub 5% owned that I think has upside if he can control his short game for his first appearance at Augusta.
Others to consider: Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Patrick Cantlay, Gary Woodland
In general, the field is very small this week, so you are going to have to have some players with relatively high ownership and I’m going to focus on players that will go under-owned. Also, if you take one thing from this section, take this – avoid BDC like the plague this week. While I generally like him, he is going to see 20+% ownership, which is way, way too high and I cannot wait to have 0 exposure.
Dustin Johnson ($11,400) – It feels weird writing DJ up here, but I do think that the best golfer in the world will go under-owned here. A lot of people will really love attacking the soft pricing in the 8 and 9k ranges, which should hamper their ability to take the highest-priced player on the board. I also think that him not playing here last year will further depress ownership. In the two years before that, he had 2 top-10 finishes, and he is playing excellent golf again currently.
Rickie Fowler ($9,000) – Compared to Watson, Casey, and Rose all within the same price range, Fowler should have much lower ownership than the rest. It also helps that he fell off at Houston last week even though he started red-hot. Between how he looked there and his experience at Augusta – he has already played here a whopping 8 times with 3 top-12’s to show for it – I think his sub-15% ownership will be criminal. He does only rank 24th in my 24-round model, but I’m still going to be overweight on the field.
Jon Rahm ($9,300) – When I first looked at pricing, Rahm jumped out to me as under-priced. Much like Rickie, I think that Rahm will go under-owned in this price range even though he is immensely talented. He definitely can get fired up out on the course and he will need to keep his cool here, but he has experience playing here from last year where he did remarkably well for a) being a rookie and b) getting one of the worst possible tee times on Thursday (it was super windy for the afternoon times). His last 12 rounds don’t look all that great, but he is 14th overall over his last 24 while ranking 1st in BoB, 9th in SG:T2G, and 10th in SG:BS.
Tommy Fleetwood ($8,500) – We will get a lot of casual players this week, so this is the perfect time to trot out players like Noren and Fleetwood as the casual player has never heard of them. Fleetwod comes in in good form as he has a string of top-30 placements, which includes 4th at the Honda, and he ranks 18th overall in my 24-round model. While his Scrambling and SG:APP numbers are a little low for my liking, he stands 7th in SG:T2G, 12th in SG:BS, 15th in BoB, and 17th in SG on Par 5’s.
Others to consider: Alex Noren, Brendan Steele, Charley Hoffman
One and Done Picks
Dan’s OAD: Alex Noren
Brandon’s OAD: Jordan Spieth
Miles’ OAD: Jordan Spieth
Bet(s) of the Week
Just as an FYI, Dan and Brandon use Bovada while Miles uses Nitrogen.
Miles’ Bet(s): No holes in one +110, Zach Johnson @ +117 versus Chappell (this number is simply too high)