Each week we will break down the tournament field by pricing tiers and give our favorite cash & GPP Draftkings plays. Brandon, Miles and Dan have also started picking our One and Done’s in this article. We use advanced stats from FantasyNational.com to determine our plays of the week that correspond to the course and history of the event. We will continue to update our picks if news changes prior to the Draftkings contest start time on Thursday mornings. Be sure to check the weather updates as well on our Course Preview article, we will also be updating the article with any necessary changes up until lineup lock. Cheers!
Brandon’s Cash Core Picks
Jimmy Walker ($8,200) – I wouldn’t say he is the safest pick I would usually take in a cash lineup. However, current form and course history align here. Walker has 3 top 16’s including a victory in the last 4 years with only one missed cut. He also comes into the tournament making the last 4 cuts. He should be priced up 1k higher in this field.
Pat Perez ($8,000) – Perez seems to be going under the radar this week. He hasn’t played here in a couple years but has an 11th and 20th to show for it. He hasn’t been great OTT lately but makes up for that with ranking 13th in SG:ARG, 21st in GIR%, 17th in SG: Par 4 and 6th in BoB%. This shows that although he hasn’t been driving it that well he makes up for it by still hitting the greens. When he misses the greens his scrambling has been superb.
Zach Johnson ($8,000) – ZJ never gets the love. This is more of a pure talent play as he should be priced much higher in this field. ZJ missed the cut here last year but has a 6th place finish and 2 other top 30 finishes. ZJ hasn’t missed a cut since last year’s Northern Trust so I’m betting on consistency here.
Brendan Steele ($8,900) – Steele has 2 top 15’s here in his last 5 tries and ranks 5th in my custom model. Steele ranks 1st in SG:T2G and OTT, 7th in GIR%, 13th in SG:Par 4 and 14th in BoB%. Steele is one of my favorite bounceback candidates this week after missing the cut at Augusta and taking last week off.
Dan’s GPP Core Plays
Adam Scott ($9,600) – Scott is a ball striker that fits this course well. He ranks 1st in GIR gained, 2nd in SG: T2G and 3rd in SG: Ball Striking over his last 36 rounds. He has not played this course before so that could keep ownership in check, but he is playing well ever since the Florida swing to the Masters. I expect a top 10 finish for him this week with very good win equity against this field.
Keegen Bradley ($7,900) – KEEGAN ranks 6th overall in my model and his putting has been better than the old Keegan. He ranks top 10 in the field in SG: T2G, GIR, SG: Approach, SG: Ball Striking and Good Drive %, all of which are very important. He has made two appearances here with a made and missed cut.
Chesson Hadley ($8,500) – Make a mental note to NEVER play Chesson in the state of Florida after he missed both cuts at Honda and Valspar. He has since played RBC and Houston with finishes of T7 and T18. Hadley ranks 11th overall in my model and ranks 1st in SG: Approach, 6th Ball Striking, 7th Birdie or Better and 7th SG: T2G. His game aligns well with TPC of San Antonio and I expect a top 20 finish for Chesson this week.
Martin Laird ($8,000) – Party Marty is a former winner here in 2013 and another ball striker that is equipped for this course. Laird ranks 14th in my model and is ranked top 25 in SG: T2G, Bogey Avoidance, Par 5 scoring, SG: Around the Green and Proximity 175-200 yards. I think he should go lower owned even though he is a past winner, he has had a solid past 2 weeks posting a T26 and T32 finish.
Others to consider:
Keith Mitchell ($7,400) – Mitchell has been very good at making the cut so far this year as he is 7/7, and he has 2 recent top-10 finishes at Houston and Puntacana (don’t put too much weight into this one just due to the field). With these recent finishes, he obviously has some good stats over his past 12, where he ranks 1st in BoB, 3rd in both SG: Par 5’s and P4: 400-450 scoring, 9th in SG:OTT, and 20th in Good Drives. There are a few red flags here especially when you look at his recent P4: 450-500 scoring, Proximity: 175-200, or SG:APP, so he will really need to tighten those areas up if he wants to compete on Sunday here.
Grayson Murray ($7,300) – I don’t really like the guy from what I have seen, but I am looking to him this week when I need a cheap option in a weak field. Between having no course history here and missing the cut last week at RBC Heritage, I feel like he will go woefully under-owned here. Before that though, he had back-to-back 14th place finishes at the Arnold Palmer and Shell. Much like Mitchell, he ranks very highly in some key stats while being dangerously low in others. On the plus side, he is 3rd in P4: 450-500 scoring, 4th in BoB, 9th in SG:T2G, and 15th in SG:BS. On the flip side, he is 113th in Bogey A
Nate Lashley ($6,900) – This is a very dangerous pick as Lashley can easily miss the cut – he missed 3 in a row earlier in the year from Farmer’s to Honda – but he does have a couple of back-to-back top-30s since then. True, one was at Puntacana, but then he finished even better at Shell. Either way, he is somehow top-10 in my last 12 rounds model this week while not really excelling at any stat. Instead, he is average to above-average in almost everything I’m looking at, which includes 17th in SG:T2G, 19th in SG: Par 5’s, 23rd in BA, and 28th in P4: 400-450 scoring.
Others to consider:
Miles’s Don’t Eat the Chalk Pick
After last week where I talked about how I wasn’t going to go anywhere near BDC due to his high ownership, I decided to add a new weekly chalk pick that I refuse to touch since avoiding bad chalk is just as important as taking low-owned flyers.
Abraham Ancer ($6,900) – Ancer rates surprisingly well in my model and I don’t hate taking an outright bet on him if you find big odds, but I’m simply not taking Ancer if he is anywhere over 5% owned. It currently looks like it might end up double that. People are looking for cheap options in a field with lackluster talent, but going with cheap chalk rarely works out in my experience.
One and Done Picks
Brandon’s OAD: Jimmy Walker
Bet(s) of the Week
Just as an FYI, Dan and Brandon use Bovada while Miles uses Nitrogen.