Each week we will break down the tournament field by pricing tiers and give our favorite cash & GPP Draftkings plays. Brandon, Miles and Dan have also started picking our One and Done’s in this article. We use advanced stats from FantasyNational.com to determine our plays of the week that correspond to the course and history of the event. We will continue to update our picks if news changes prior to the Draftkings contest start time on Thursday mornings. Be sure to check the weather updates as well on our Course Preview article, we will also be updating the article with any necessary changes up until lineup lock. Cheers!
Brandon’s Cash Core Picks
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,400) – This is an absurd price for Mats. He has a strong history at TPC Sawgrass. This makes sense as it is a ball striker’s course. Mats has made 4 straight cuts along with 4 straight top 25’s here. I will be loading up on Mats this weekend.
Francesco Molinari ($8,100) – Molinari is simply too cheap. He has 3 straight top 10’s at TPC Sawgrass. An accurate hitter with a solid T2G game, Molinari is a solid mid-range play for your lineups.
Paul Casey ($8,900) – They just love pricing Casey in this upper 8k range I will keep going back to the well each and every week. Casey has 2 straight top 25’s here as well as 3 top 15’s in three of his last 4 tournaments. Casey gained 6 strokes putting last week which I can guarantee will not happen again. However, he is gaining strokes on his approach shots which is exactly what you need here.
Webb Simpson ($7,200) – This price is ABSURD. Simpson has been on a tear lately and is priced in the low 7k range. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Phoenix Open in which he has had 3 top 10’s since and 5 top 25’s. I will be loading up on Simpson. He finished 16th here last year so can go low at TPC Sawgrass. The putter has been working finally which makes Simpson a great addition to finalize your roster.
Dan’s GPP Core Plays
Jon Rahm ($9,300) – This price tag is just disrespectful for the #3 golfer in the world. Rahm played 2 rounds last year at TPC lights out and frustration got to him the last round on Saturday. He ranks top 15 in SG: T2G, Ball Striking, Birdie or better, Par 4 scoring and Par 5 scoring. If he can keep a level head this weekend, I like his chances to come out with the W.
Daniel Berger ($7,600) – Berger is a FL guy that loves to play on Bermuda. He is a solid cut maker that ranks around the top 40 in just about every key metric we are looking at this week. His overall game is very strong, and I think that is important at a course like TPC where hazards lie on almost every hole and you obviously need a short game to give you the win equity each week.
Francesco Molinari ($8,100) – I think Molinari could be a little popular this week due to the fact he is a great ball striker with some salary relief. He ranks 7th in SG: T2G, 7th in SG: Ball Striking and 12th in Good Drive %. Those key stats should theoretically make him a safer play since he tends to keep the ball in the fairway, away from hazards. But this is TPC Sawgrass and chaos ensues every year.
Keegan Bradley ($6,900) – If you are feeling like taking on some risk and rolling the dice to get salary relief, look no further. Keegan is a FL resident that can play on bermuda and is a solid ball striker. He ranks 6th in SG: approach, 12th in Ball Striking, 13th in SG: T2G and 20th in GIR gained over his last 50 rounds. For the discount I think he is definitely worth some dart throws.
Others to consider: Tommy Fleetwood
Brooks Koepka ($7,700) – I’m going write back to the well here. While he didn’t place highly last week, he made the cut on a difficult course and played very steady golf. Not only do I get him at a ridiculously cheap price – again – I’m going to get him at low ownership here. I’m riding or dying with Brooks here, so I’m hoping for another t-20 like he did last year.
Sneds ($7,400) – Sneds is just outside the top-30 overall in my model this week, but his SG:T2G, SG:APP, and Scrambling have all been particularly good over his last 12, while the rest of his stats have no glaring holes. He has very mixed results here with back-to-back missed cuts, but he also finished 8th a couple of years before that. I’m going to sprinkle him in as I think he has the talent to give you a high finish at low ownership.
Sergio Garcia ($9,000) – Garcia burned a lot of people both at The Master’s and The Texas Open (me included), so I think he will go wildly under-owned here. While you obviously don’t love seeing back-to-back MC’s, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt at a course where he has made 7 straight cuts, and 3 of those finishes ended in the top 10. Also, even with his missed cuts, his numbers over his last 12 rounds are very good, so I think he turns it around here.
Others to consider: BDC, JT, Watney, Hadwin
Miles’s Don’t Eat the Chalk Pick
Here’s my weekly chalk pick that I refuse to touch since avoiding bad chalk is just as important as taking low-owned flyers (if not more so).
Jordan Spieth ($11,100) – It’s always risky fading one of the best golfers in the world, but Spieth just has abysmal course history here. While he did place 4th back in 2014, he has missed 3 straight cuts since then. If I’m going to pay up, I’ll gravitate towards Rory or JT here.