2018 AT&T Byron Nelson Picks

Each week we will break down the tournament field by pricing tiers and give our favorite cash & GPP Draftkings plays. Brandon, Miles and Dan have also started picking our One and Done’s in this article. We use advanced stats from FantasyNational.com to determine our plays of the week that correspond to the course and history of the event. We will continue to update our picks if news changes prior to the Draftkings contest start time on Thursday mornings. Be sure to check the weather updates as well on our Course Preview article, we will also be updating the article with any necessary changes up until lineup lock. Cheers!

Brandon’s Cash Core Picks

This is not an ideal cash week due to a new course with zero expectations and weak field.  However, a balanced approach will be the most ideal cash game play.

Charles Howell III ($8,700) – Loving the balanced approach for cash games as we don’t lose equity from having to pick from the dumpster.  Howell ranks 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in SG:T2G, 13th in GIR%, and 17th in SG: Short Game.

Marc Leishman ($9,100) – If this course is going to play like a links-style course, Leish is prime for a solid weekend.  Leishman ranks 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in SG: App, 8th in SG:T2G, and 20th in SG: Short Game.

Jimmy Walker ($9,200) – Local Texan Jimmy Walker knows how to play in the Lone Star State.  Walker has been playing quality golf as of late as well. Walker ranks 2nd in SG: Short Game, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 15th in SG:T2G, and 18th in SG:App.

Martin Laird ($7,900) – Scottish boy Martin Laird makes the list.  Typically not a cash style player, risks must be taken in a crap field.  Laird ranks 5th in SG: Short Game, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, and 23rd in SG: T2G.

Also Consider:

Dan’s GPP Core Plays

Jordan Spieth ($11,900) – I don’t know if there is a reason to not play Spieth at this price, on a course his swing coach resides, he practices at, oh and he grew up in Dallas. Spieth has not had success in Texas but this course is much different than the other venues in the Lone Star state. He will have room off the tee and I really think his putting begins to come around. He ranks 1st in my model by a long shot so I wont waste any more words on this.

Grayson Murray ($8,200) – Grayson ranks 4th in my model this week and his game suites this long links style course. He ranks 1st in Par 4 scoring, 3rd in SG: T2G and BoB %, 6th in Ball Striking and 14th in Par 5 scoring. He will be able to take advantage of his length and have some shorter approach shots to knock it close to the pin on these undulating greens.

Martin Laird – See above with BG’s post.

Beau Hossler ($9,000) – Trinity Forest is Beau’s home course which I found out after putting together my model and he happens to rank 10th above Jimmy, Leish, Hideki and Sneds. He ranks 1st in Good Drives, 6th in Par 5 scoring, 9th in SG: T2G, 5th in Bogey avoidance and GIR Gained over his last 24 rounds.

Others to consider: Aaron Wise, Joaquinn Neimann, Rory Sabbatini

Contrarian Darts

Keith Mitchell ($7,800) – Mitchell has only missed 1 cut this entire year and ranks 7th overall in my model this week. He is 4th in SG:T2G and 5th in both BoB and GIRs Gained, while also ranking top-30 in a bunch of other key stats I’m looking at. He also finished 2nd at Punta Cana, which also has an incredibly weak field, so let’s see if he can repeat the magic here.

Ben Crane ($7,700) – He ranks in the top-15 in my model this week with no stat really standing out other than Par 5 Scoring, in which he ranks 6th in the field. Since there are four Par 5’s on the course, and none of his other stats are bad, this is enough for me to hang my hat on this week.

Richy Werenski ($7,100) – I literally never thought I would write up Werenski before this week, but here we are. I’m not sure how much I will end up with as he has only made 4 cuts this year – definitely not a cut maker in strong fields – but he does rank surprisingly high in my model this week. Obviously, I don’t recommend going heavy on him as you don’t need much to be more than the field.

Joaquin Niemann ($7,800) – He’s 1 for 3 in making cuts this year as he missed at both The Master’s and The Player’s, but he crushed the Texas Open where he finished 6th. Overall, he ranks 2nd in my 12-round model this week as he is 5th in Par 5 Scoring, 6th in SG:T2G, 7th, in SG:APP, 10th in GIRs Gained, and 13th in BoB Gained. I’m anticipating that a lot of people will look elsewhere due to his recent cut making.

Others to consider: Abraham Ancer, Scott Piercy, Andrew Putnam (might be chalkier than I would like)

Miles’s Don’t Eat the Chalk Pick

Here’s my weekly chalk pick that I refuse to touch since avoiding bad chalk is just as important as taking low-owned flyers (if not more so).

Matt Kuchar ($10,700) – In a horrible field, Kuch would normally stand out as an elite play, but Id on’t love him here. While he does rank highly in my model, he doesn’t deal well with long courses in general, and we really have to be judicious with where we spend our money here.

One and Done Picks

Dan’s OAD:

Brandon’s OAD:

Miles’ OAD: Jimmy Walker

Bet(s) of the Week

Just as an FYI, Dan and Brandon use Bovada while Miles uses Nitrogen.

Dan’s Bet(s):

Brandon’s Bet(s):

Miles’ Bet(s):


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