Each week we will break down the tournament field by pricing tiers and give our favorite cash & GPP Draftkings plays. Brandon, Miles and Dan have also started picking our One and Done’s in this article. We use advanced stats from FantasyNational.com to determine our plays of the week that correspond to the course and history of the event. We will continue to update our picks if news changes prior to the Draftkings contest start time on Thursday mornings. Be sure to check the weather updates as well on our Course Preview article, we will also be updating the article with any necessary changes up until lineup lock. Cheers!
Brandon’s Cash Core Picks
Kevin Kisner – ($8,100) – COURSE HORSE. Kisner won here last year and follows that up with 3 top 10’s in his last 3 tries. This price on DK allows you the balanced lineup I prefer when assembling a cash lineup.
Matt Kuchar ($9,300) – This is a solid discount on Kuchar from last week when he missed cut. However, I wouldn’t look into that missed cut too much as he comes into Colonial with a second, 6th, and 12th place finish in the last five years with one missed cut. Kuchar also gives you that balanced approach to lineups.
Webb Simpson ($10,200) – Simpson checks the boxes for current form and course history. Simpson has a fifth and third place finish here for the course history truthers backed up by a win and 4 top 10’s in his last 7 events. I would start your cash lineups with Simpson.
Adam Hadwin ($7,600) – Hadwin is a solid cheap play to round out the lineups. Hadwin hasn’t missed a cut here with a 5th place finish three years ago. He also hasn’t missed a cut since last year’s Northern Trust. A reliable option week in and week out for cash, especially at this price.
Dan’s GPP Core Plays
Brooks Koepka ($9,200) – My mentality with guys that have elite talent and are priced at a discount when there is still “uncertainty” out in the public eye is to play them. Brooks showed at the Players his wrist is fine even after a freak accident on Wednesday before the tournament. This week shorter hitters have a chance at this course, but adding distance always helps. Use Brooks at this price and lower ownership than he should be since people are not yet comfortable using him. His recent stats you have to ignore as it is from months ago as he was dealing with a severe wrist injury. Plug in GPPs to take advantage of the ownership discount.
Steve Stricker ($7,900) – The old man Steve Stricker has had a solid start to the 2018 season. He ranks 8th overall in my model, ranking 3rd in Good Drive %, 7th in GIR and 10th in Bogey Avoidance. Stricker can maneuver courses with precision and the shorter length will only help him this weekend.
Scott Piercy ($7,700)- Piercy is my favorite overall play this week with price and ownership considered. I expect him to be in the 10-15% ownership range which for his price is not bad at all when you take his advanced stats a look. He ranks 1st in SG: Approach, 1st in SG: Ball Striking, 2nd in SG: T2G and 9th in Good Drive %, do I need to go on? He has made 4 of 4 cuts at this event finishing 7th last year.
Nick Watney ($7,300) – Watney ranks 15th overall in my model and should be a great GPP leverage play. He ranks 8th in GIR, 10th in SG: Ball Striking, 11th in Good Drives and 15th in Bogey Avoidance over his past 36 rounds. Watney will keep the ball in play and give himself biridie looks while avoiding the blow up holes.
Others to consider: Jason Dufner, Chris Kirk, Andrew Putnam, Sam Burns
Nick Watney ($7,300) – I like Watney for all of the reasons Dan mentions above and, over his last 24 rounds, his numbers are even better. He ranks 5th in GIRs gained, 10th in SG:BS, 13th in BA, and 15th in SG:T2G.
Chris Kirk ($7,600) – Captain Kirk ranks top-20 in my model this week and has a vastly underrated course history here as he has made the cut 6 straight times with a bunch of high finishes – 1st, 5th, 14th, and 15th. Not only does Kirk have great CH, but as you can surmise from his ranking, a lot of his stats pop for me – 15th in BA, 17th in SG:T2G, 22nd in GIRs gained, and 27th in scrambling. I’m riding or dying with both Watney and Kirk this week as they have found themselves onto most of my lines.
Charley Hoffman ($7,900) – C-Hoff isn’t getting enough love this week as he has also made 6 straight cuts at Ft. Worth, and he finished 3 of those in the top-20. While standing at only 26th in my model this week, he does rank 4th in GIRs gained, 20th in SG:APP, and 23rd in SG:BS.
Xander Schauffele ($8,200) – X-Man is a risky pick this week as he only clocks in at 63rd in GIRs gained, but he is 8th in SG:APP and 9th in SG:BS. Working in his favor, he does also gain over 0.4 strokes putting on bent greens, and he did make the cut last year – in his only previous appearance here. I just like his talent, so I’ll have a little exposure this week.
Others to consider: Chesson Hadley, Steve Stricker, Sean O’Hair
Miles’s Don’t Eat the Chalk Pick
Here’s my weekly chalk pick that I refuse to touch since avoiding bad chalk is just as important as taking low-owned flyers (if not more so).
Justin Rose ($10,600) – I don’t feel as strongly about this fade as I normally do as I really like Rose in general and he has good recent form (7th in my model). What’s holding me back is that he hasn’t played this course since 2010 and he has never finished above 34th when he did play it, so I’m worried that he might be fairly unfamiliar with it at this point. He also falls in an awkward price range for me
One and Done Picks
Miles’ OAD: Webb Simpson
Bet(s) of the Week
Just as an FYI, Dan and Brandon use Bovada while Miles uses Nitrogen.